Martin Armstrong forecasts that did not play out as stated or on the timetable claimed, pairing his own words with “what actually happened.”
1) “Big Bang”/sovereign-debt crisis to begin at 2015.75 (Oct 1, 2015) - Armstrong source: Multiple posts keying the crisis start to 2015.75 / Oct-1-2015 (“Big Bang 2015.75”; “The ECM date October 1”; “Changes on September 30/October 1, 2015”). Armstrong Economics+2Armstrong Economics+2
- What happened: No immediate sovereign-debt cascade; global growth in 2015–2016 remained ~3.1–3.6% and the IMF expected a gradual pickup from 2017. IMF+1
2) ECB/Euro collapse by 2018 (or a failure of a “major central bank”) - Armstrong source: “Eurozone will Collapse – There is No Other Choice Economically” and related euro-collapse pieces; risk of monetary reform “as early as 2018.” Armstrong Economics+1
- What happened: The ECB did not collapse; 2018 saw slower euro-area growth but continued expansion; the ECB published a normal Annual Report for 2018. European Central Bank
3) “Financial Panic” in Europe into May 2019 - Armstrong source: “The Financial Panic of 2019?” calling for a major panic “come this May 2019.” Armstrong Economics
- What happened: No systemic European banking/market panic materialized. Euro-area equities traded through 2019 without a collapse and, in fact, subsequent years saw the EURO STOXX 50 make new records by 2025. Cinco Días
4) Gold to $5,000 on the 2011–2016 window (conditional language, but presented as model cap/target) - Armstrong source: 2009 reports discussing a 2016 high for gold and “maximum our models project is $5,000.” Armstrong Economics+1
- What happened: Spot gold never approached $5,000 by 2016 (or since). It finished 2016 near $1,152/oz. Macrotrends+1
5) Euro “collapse” & persistent USD haven call (2015) - Armstrong source: Repeated 2015 euro-bear themes (“The Euro” page collects pieces; “Pound Sterling Collapses” also ties a sovereign-debt eruption to 2018–2020). Armstrong Economics+1
- What happened: The euro did not collapse; EUR/USD fluctuated but remained a major currency pair through 2015–2025 (historical series shows the euro very much extant). Macrotrends
6) Dow 30,000 by 2015 - Armstrong source: Will the Dow Reach 30,000 by 2015? (Aug 14, 2009) tying a big equity peak to 2015.75. Armstrong Economics
- What happened: The DJIA ended 2015 at ~17,425—far from 30,000 (which wasn’t reached until late 2020). Macrotrends
7) Sovereign-debt crisis “moving into 2020.05” (as the next leg of the 2015.75 call) - Armstrong source: Posts framing 2015.75 as the start with a next leg into 2020.05 and “demise of governments.” Armstrong Economics
- What happened: While 2020 had a sharp COVID shock, the immediate macro story was a rapid, policy-driven rebound rather than broad sovereign defaults; by mid-2020–2021 risk assets had recovered strongly. (Armstrong himself later emphasized the March-23-2020 low and rebound.) Armstrong Economics
Notes on interpretation - Armstrong often frames forecasts via the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) with windows and “turning points,” which can make ex-post interpretation flexible. That’s precisely why the items above use his original posts plus hard outcome data
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