Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46121.07 | -171.50 | (-0.37%) | | Nasdaq | 22497.86 | -75.62 | (-0.33%) | | SP 500 | 6637.96 | -18.95 | (-0.28%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1740 | Dec 1016 | Vol 1.21 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1951 | Dec 2654 | Vol 9.23 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Utilities |
| | Weak: Materials, Real Estate, Communication Services, Information Technology, Health Care |
Moving the Market
Continued pressure on mega-cap and tech names preventing gains at the index level
Markets weighing valuation concerns following Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday
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Major averages see record-setting streak snapped
24-Sep-25 16:30 ET
Dow -171.50 at 46121.07, Nasdaq -75.62 at 22497.86, S&P -18.95 at 6637.96
[BRIEFING.COM] There were no record-setting performances today among the S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), or DJIA (-0.4%), as persistent mega-cap weakness eventually prompted selling activity across the broader market.
While today's price action never reflected a "buy the dip" play, equities hung tough in the morning hours, with broader market strength almost negating mega-cap losses at the index level.
That would change just before midday as a sell-off ensued, turning breadth figures negative and dragging several S&P 500 sectors beneath their flatlines.
Decliners would go on to outpace advancers by a roughly 8-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 4-to-3 clip on the Nasdaq.
Seven S&P 500 sectors closed in negative territory, with the materials sector (-1.6%) retreating the furthest after Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 37.67, -7.69, -16.95%) sold off on news it had cut Q3 sales guidance following a fatal mud rush incident at an Indonesian mine, according to Yahoo! Finance.
Meanwhile, the communication services (-0.8%) and information technology (-0.5%) sectors faced the brunt of today's mega-cap weakness.
Within the technology sector, Micron (MU 161.71, -4.70, -2.82%) traded lower after an impressive beat and raise earnings report, and Oracle (ORCL 308.44, -5.39, -1.72%) faced a loss despite announcing five new U.S. AI data center sites under the Stargate Project—an ambitious AI infrastructure initiative that includes OpenAI and Softbank (SFTBY 63.27, +1.65, +2.68%).
The technology sector and PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.2%) would still finish well off their session lows, supported by a late afternoon report from Bloomberg that Intel (INTC 31.22, +1.88, +6.41%) is pursuing an investment from Apple (AAPL 252.31, -2.12, -0.83%).
Nonetheless, the market's overall subdued reaction to a batch of AI-related headlines is striking considering similar news catalysts sparked a record-setting rally on Monday. With Fed Chair Powell's remarks that stocks are "fairly highly valued" fresh in the minds of investors, it is not all that surprising that market's largest names faced a pullback.
Ultimately the pullback was modest in the scope of recent gains, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-0.4%) retreating less than half of a percentage point.
Additionally, there were some pockets of strength in the market (and even across the mega-cap cohort) that prevented further losses at the index level.
Tesla's (TSLA 442.80, +16.95, +3.98%) strong showing prompted a 0.7% gain in the consumer discretionary sector. The sector saw early strength among homebuilder names after a surprisingly strong August New Home Sales report (800,000; Briefing.com consensus 650,000), though the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (+0.1%) would cede nearly all of its gain.
Elsewhere, the energy sector (+1.2%) led all sectors today as crude oil futures settled $1.56 higher at $65.00 per barrel, an increase of 2.5%.
The defensive utilities (+0.7%) and consumer staples (+0.1%) sectors also closed with gains.
The market heard from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (voting FOMC member), who told The Financial Times that he does not expect a recession and might not be in favor of a series of additional rate cuts.
Rate cut expectations for the October and December FOMC meetings have held steady this week. With expectations for further monetary policy easing a driving force behind the market's recent record highs, investors will look to Friday's PCE Price Index as a potential catalyst for the next directional move.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Wednesday, lifting the 5-year yield to its highest level in three weeks while yields on longer tenors returned toward their highs from Monday.
The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point to 3.60%, the 5-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.71%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.15%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.5% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +9.2% YTD
- DJIA: +8.4% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.3% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 0.6%; Prior 29.7%
- August New Home Sales 800K (Briefing.com consensus 650K); Prior was revised to 664K from 652K
- The key takeaway from the report is that the surge in new home sales occurred ahead of the larger drop in mortgage rates seen in September. Notably, there was a big uptick in the percentage of new homes sold over $800,000. That helps explain the large jump in average selling prices, and it may also be reflective of the large jump in stock prices lending some confidence to buying interest in the upper price brackets.
Homebuilders give back early gains
24-Sep-25 15:25 ET
Dow -168.16 at 46124.41, Nasdaq -88.34 at 22485.14, S&P -23.70 at 6633.21
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), and DJIA (-0.4%) hold identical losses near the end of today's session that widen their week-to-date losses.
Homebuilder names, which initially traded higher after this morning's strong New Home Sales report for August (800,000; Briefing.com consensus 650,000), have given back the bulk of their earlier gains.
Last week, Commerce Dept data showed that permits for future single-family home construction dropped to two-year lows. As such, builders may be expecting a future sales slowdown or residual caution in the market. This suggests that this current sales spike might be temporary or perhaps driven by heavy discounting, as there is currently a glut of unsold new houses.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF is now up just 0.1% after holding a nearly 1.0% gain this morning.
Investors will look to KB Home's (KBH 62.54, +0.14, +0.22%) earnings report after the close for further color.
Major averages hold on to modest losses in late afternoon
24-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow -144.33 at 46148.24, Nasdaq -75.41 at 22498.07, S&P -20.25 at 6636.66
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), and DJIA (-0.3%) are little changed from previous levels as the market enters the final hour of trading.
The small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) hold slightly wider losses, though their performance today has mirrored that of their larger counterparts.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (voting FOMC member) said that a weakening job market does not signal a recession, with Mr. Goolsbee against an additional series of rate cuts, according to Financial Times.
Despite varying commentary from FOMC members this week, rate cut expectations have been largely unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 91.9% chance of at least a 25-basis point cut at the October meeting (up from 87.4% last week) and a 75.2% chance of an additional cut by December (down from 81.8% last week).
S&P 500 dips 0.4% as Freeport plunges on Grasberg mine incident; Mosaic leads gains in fertilizers
24-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow -160.79 at 46131.78, Nasdaq -116.50 at 22456.98, S&P -28.38 at 6628.53
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.43%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, down about 28 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 38.36, -7.00, -15.43%), Axon (AXON 714.03, -63.55, -8.17%), and KKR (KRR 139.43, -7.82, -5.31%) dot the bottom of the standings. FCX falls sharply as investors react to a mud rush incident at its Grasberg mine, which is expected to slash near-term copper and gold production, delay a full restart until 2027, and significantly weigh on 2026 output, while AXON dips despite getting an Overweight initiation out of Piper Sandler overnight
Meanwhile, Mosaic (MOS 35.93, +1.96, +5.77%) is outperforming alongside other fertilizer peers.
Gold drops 1.3% to $3,768 as stronger dollar, Fed caution spur profit-taking
24-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -159.30 at 46133.27, Nasdaq -100.28 at 22473.20, S&P -25.02 at 6631.89
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Wednesday afternoon the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.44%) is lower by 100 points.
Gold futures settled $47.60 lower (-1.3%) at $3,768.10/oz, as a stronger dollar and profit-taking pressured prices after recent record highs. The pullback also reflected investor caution following Fed Chair Powell's more measured tone on rate cuts, which tempered expectations for rapid monetary easing.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now up about +0.6% to $97.85.
Cintas Trades Flat After Modest Q1 Beat; Guidance Increase Calms Job Market Fears (CTAS)
Cintas is trading flat after delivering a lukewarm Q1 (Aug) report this morning. The uniform and facility services provider posted slightly better-than-expected EPS and revenue, with revenue up 8.7% yr/yr to $2.72 bln — a decent number, though below the company's usual beat cadence.
- Q1 upside was modest, continuing a trend of muted beats over the past two quarters.
- Cintas raised FY26 guidance, and the increase exceeded the Q1 upside, implying potential strength in Q2-Q4.
- Management cited steady retention rates, a resilient customer base, and a value proposition that continues to resonate — even in uncertain macro conditions.
- The company noted no meaningful changes in customer sales cycles despite a soft labor market.
- Key growth drivers remain converting "no-programmers" and cross-selling to existing clients.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Cintas's flat reaction suggests the market had already priced in a softer quarter, especially given the weak recent payroll data. The slight guidance raise helped offset fears of a potential cut, which is a win under the circumstances. Still, investors will want to see a return to more robust upside over the next few quarters. The stock has pulled back from ~$225 to ~$200 in recent weeks, likely reflecting jobs-related concerns. For now, Cintas remains steady, but upside execution needs to reaccelerate.
Alibaba boosts AI investment to $53 bln, targeting global leadership in cloud and LLMs (BABA)
Alibaba (BABA) announced a major AI and cloud infrastructure investment plan totaling over RMB 380 bln over the next three years, signaling a deeper commitment to becoming a global AI leader. The news, unveiled during its 2025 Apsara Conference, was well-received by investors as it reinforces BABA’s ambition to compete head-on with global tech giants in the AI arms race.
- BABA announced that it will ramp up its AI spending beyond the original target of RMB 380 bln (about $53 bln), signaling a higher commitment to AI infrastructure and research than previously planned.
- The company unveiled new Qwen3-Max large language model and teased Wan 2.5 visual-generation model, aiming to compete with OpenAI, DeepSeek, and others.
- The announcement follows NVIDIA’s (NVDA) $100 bln planned investment in OpenAI, highlighting intensifying AI arms race.
- BABA's Cloud Intelligence revenue rose 26% yr/yr to RMB 33.4 bln in 1Q26, driven by strong demand for compute and cloud services supporting AI adoption.
- AI product revenue posted triple-digit growth for the 8th straight quarter, reflecting solid enterprise demand.
- Cloud unit remains low margin, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of RMB 2.95 bln, well below the China e-Commerce Group’s RMB 38.4 bln.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
BABA’s upsized AI investment is both ambitious and necessary. With global tech giants aggressively scaling AI infrastructure, the company’s increased spend signals intent to be more than a regional player. While cloud margins remain thin, sustained triple-digit AI revenue growth shows traction. Execution risk remains, but for investors, BABA’s bold bet could prove strategically sound over the long term.
Thor Industries drives past Q4 expectations even as RV market hits speedbumps (THO)
Thor Industries (THO) is trading nicely higher after reporting its Q4 (Jul) results this morning. The RV manufacturer delivered a huge EPS beat, its largest in 9 quarters, while revenue declined 0.4% to $2.52 bln, a much more modest decline than the 8% analysts had been expecting.
- North American Towable sales declined 4.6%, primarily on lower wholesale shipments, but gross margin improved 70 bps on cost savings.
- Europe sales slipped 2.2% on a 14.1% unit decline, with management expecting a relatively flat FY26 sell-through environment.
- Bright spot: North American Motorized RVs outperformed the market for a second straight quarter, with sales up 7.8%.
- Affordability remains a key challenge, though THO is working to mitigate cost pressures; consumer sentiment remains mixed.
- Dealers positioned for a strong spring, but weather and tariffs dampened early demand; inventory now viewed as appropriate in both NA and Europe.
- Retail trends strengthened in peak months, though management is cautious given labor market softness.
- FY26 guidance: EPS of $3.75-4.25 and revenue of $9.0-9.5 bln, both below consensus, as THO plans for a challenging retail backdrop similar to FY25.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Thor Industries posted another better-than-expected quarter, highlighting the strength of its cost discipline and flexible operating model in a challenging retail backdrop. Affordability issues and uneven consumer demand remain major obstacles, but THO has demonstrated it can protect margins and capture share even as overall RV demand softens. While FY26 guidance is light, management's conservative approach looks prudent given the continued uncertainty. With two straight quarters of execution above expectations, THO is well-positioned to accelerate when retail demand steadies.
Massive U.S. AI Infrastructure Push: Stargate Project Accelerates Toward $500B Goal (ORCL)
A major development in the AI data center space emerged last night as OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank unveiled five new U.S. AI data center sites under the Stargate Project — an ambitious AI infrastructure initiative launched in early 2025. The project now nears $400 bln in committed investment and close to 7 GW of planned capacity, marking a significant milestone on its path toward a $500 bln, 10 GW target by end of 2025 — ahead of schedule.
- Stargate is a joint effort between entites with different strengths: OpenAI (AI innovation), Oracle (cloud/data center scale), and SoftBank (capital and expansion).
- The five new US data center sites will complement the flagship Stargate campus in Abilene, TX, already operational on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).
- Abilene began receiving NVIDIA GB200 racks in June and is already supporting early-stage training and inference workloads for OpenAI.
- Including work with CoreWeave, the Stargate initiative now totals nearly 7 GW of AI capacity across multiple regions.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
This announcement marks the dawn of a new era in U.S. AI infrastructure. The scale — $500 bln and 10 GW — positions the Stargate Project as one of the largest AI data center buildouts globally, likely boosting U.S. leadership in AI, HPC, and sovereign cloud. The initiative also aligns with growing policy pressure to keep strategic AI infrastructure onshore. A potential risk: energy demands at this scale may strain regional power grids and ripple through energy markets. Nonetheless, the project is a defining moment for AI infrastructure investing in the US.
Micron's blowout quarter highlights HBM momentum, but that boom was already priced in (MU)
Micron (MU) delivered a standout 4Q25 report, surging past expectations on both the top and bottom lines after previously lifting guidance in August. The company’s upside 1Q26 forecast, driven by explosive demand for HBM (high bandwidth memory) chips, reinforces its emerging leadership in the AI memory space.
- EPS rose 157% yr/yr to $3.03, and revenue jumped 46% to $11.32 bln, both topping expectations and the company's raised guidance.
- HBM chip sales surged, driving a 214% revenue increase in the Cloud Memory unit. HBM now contributes 16% of total revenue, nearing $2 bln.
- HBM supply is fully booked through 2025, with demand visibility extending into 2026.
- Gross margin expanded 670 bps to 45.7%, beating estimates. MU guided 1Q26 gross margin at 51.5% (+/-1%), reflecting strong HBM pricing.
- 1Q26 guidance was above consensus for both EPS and revenue, indicating continued strength in AI-related demand.
- The results provide a positive readthrough for the AI sector, including peers like NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), and Taiwan Semi Manufacturing (TSM).
- MU also announced a partnership with TSM to manufacture HBM4 base logic dies, giving it access to advanced packaging and reinforcing its position in next-gen AI memory.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
MU delivered a beat-and-raise quarter that exceeded already high expectations. While AI tailwinds -- especially in HBM -- are clearly strong, the recent 40% stock run has priced in much of this momentum. The TSM deal is a strategic win, but execution and margin sustainability will be key as competition intensifies. MU is well-positioned, but near-term upside may be limited without another leg of growth.
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