Here’s where things currently stand on separatism in Alberta:
??? How much support is there? - Only a minority of Albertans back full independence. A recent Leger poll (May?9–12, 2025) shows 29?% support Alberta becoming an independent country, while 67?% oppose it The Washington Post+15Leger+15650 CKOM+15.
- About 17?% support Alberta joining the U.S. as a state Wikipedia.
- Roughly 35?% would support a combined independent Western Canada including Alberta, B.C., Saskatchewan and Manitoba Leger.
?? Breakdown of attitudes ?? Trends and context - Support has grown since 2021, climbing roughly 5 points, returning to levels last seen during the pandemic when frustration with federal restrictions was high .
- Yet, opposition still dominates: more than two-thirds of Albertans oppose separation, with roughly half “strongly opposed” The Guardian+15Leger+15CityNews Toronto+15.
- Leger data from a national poll shows that while 55?% of Canadians say they understand Alberta separatism, only about 26?% nationwide support independence CityNews Calgary+9650 CKOM+9CityNews Kitchener+9.
??? Political developments - Premier Danielle Smith opposes outright secession but has reduced the signature threshold under Bill?54 to allow a citizen-initiated referendum: only 177,000 signatures needed (down from 600,000), with a vote possibly as early as 2026 CityNews Edmonton+10Financial Times+10Wikipedia+10.
- Advocacy groups such as the Alberta Prosperity Project and parties like the Republican Party of Alberta or Wildrose Independence Party are actively pushing for a binding independence referendum, followed by a non-binding vote on joining the U.S. Wikipedia.
?? Legal and practical barriers - Even if a referendum saw majority support, legal obstacles are formidable. The Clarity Act, Indigenous treaty rights, transnational negotiations, and constitutional complexities make actual secession highly challenging TIME+1.
- Meanwhile, ongoing talk of separatism is raising concerns among investors and businesses about economic uncertainty in Alberta Wikipedia+1.
? Summary - Roughly 3 in 10 Albertans support full independence, with stronger support among those who self-identify as Albertan and conservative voters.
- Most Albertans still oppose separation—by a margin of roughly 2 to 1.
- The political machinery now exists for a potential referendum, but significant legal, political, and economic hurdles remain.
- Ultimately, while separatist sentiment has increased, it remains a minority position—and actual independence is unlikely in the near term.
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