Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45947.11 | -173.96 | (-0.38%) | | Nasdaq | 22384.70 | -113.16 | (-0.50%) | | SP 500 | 6604.71 | -33.25 | (-0.50%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 734 | Dec 2010 | Vol 1.19 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1140 | Dec 3462 | Vol 10.04 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Financials, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
Continues weakness in mega-cap tech names amid valuation concerns
Dip in rate cut expectations following this morning's economic data
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Market retreats on softening rate cut expectations ahead of key inflation reading
25-Sep-25 16:20 ET
Dow -173.96 at 45947.11, Nasdaq -113.16 at 22384.70, S&P -33.25 at 6604.71
[BRIEFING.COM] For the third consecutive day, the stock market ended lower at the index level, with the S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) experiencing early pressure as mega-caps continued to underperform, and stronger-than-expected economic data dampened the market's expectations for additional rate cuts this year.
In particular, a strong initial jobless claims report (218,000; Briefing.com consensus: 238,000) reinforced signs of labor market strength, weighing on what has been a driver behind the case for further easing.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in October slipped to 85.5% from 91.9% yesterday, while the odds of another cut in December fell to 60.5% from 73.3% yesterday.
Fed commentary further complicated expectations, with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (voting FOMC member) describing policy as “slightly restrictive" and "where it needs to be,” while Fed Governor Stephen Miran (voting FOMC member) reiterated support for a series of cuts in a Bloomberg interview.
The stock market's ensuing retreat broadened past the mega-cap space, with advancers outpacing decliners by a roughly 3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
Mega-caps still faced pressure (the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.5% lower), but broader market weakness saw the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.5%) outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.9%).
The energy sector (+0.9%) was the only S&P 500 sector that closed with a gain, buoyed by bargain hunting after lagging much of the month. Refiners Valero Energy (VLO 174.46, +3.64, +2.13%) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 196.48, +3.38, +1.75%) climbed to their best levels since April 2024. Despite a 3.7% week-to-date gain, the sector still trails the broader market for the month.
While the information technology sector finished flat, its reversal from a much wider loss played a pivotal role in lifting the major averages from early session lows.
NVIDIA (NVDA 177.68, +0.72, +0.40%) and Apple (AAPL 256.87, +4.56, +1.81%) both finished in positive territory, while Intel (INTC 33.99, +2.77, +8.87%) captured the widest gain across S&P 500 names as it saw momentum from a potential investment by Apple.
Despite President Trump finalizing the much-anticipated TikTok deal in which Oracle (ORCL 291.24, -17.22, -5.58%) will be a prominent investor, the stock still succumbed to recent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the health care (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.5%), and materials (-1.2%) sectors closed with the widest losses.
Smaller-cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (-1.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) also underperformed today amid fluctuating rate cut expectations.
On the earnings front, KB Home (KBH 62.03, -0.35, -0.56%) finished lower after an earnings beat, with broader weakness across homebuilder names pushing the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 1.5% lower.
Accenture (ACN 232.59, -6.49, -2.71%) and Jabil (JBL 210.01, -15.27, -6.78%) also retreated despite earnings beats, while CarMax's (KMX 45.60, -11.45, -20.06%) $0.40 EPS miss saw it finish as the worst-performing S&P 500 name.
On the heels of today's retreat, tomorrow's release of the PCE Price Index will be closely watched, as another firm inflation reading could further dampen expectations for additional rate cuts.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday with shorter tenors pacing a continuation of post-FOMC selling while the long bond outperformed, finishing modestly higher.
The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.77%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.17%.
Reviewing today's data:
- The third estimate for Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.3%) from the second estimate of 3.3%, spurred on by an upward revision to consumer spending. The GDP Price Deflator was revised up to 2.1% (Briefing.com consensus: 2.0%) from the second estimate of 2.0%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the consumer and the economy in aggregate were still operating in a solid state in Q2. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 2.9% versus 1.9% in the second estimate.
- Weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 decreased by 14,000 to 218,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 238,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 13 decreased by 2,000 to 1.926 million.
- The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—are running at levels more consistent with a strong labor market than a weak one. If nothing else, there certainly wasn't a lot of firing activity in the week ending September 20.
- Durable goods orders increased 2.9% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: -0.5%) following an upwardly revised 2.7% decline (from -2.8%) in July. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: -0.1%) following a downwardly revised 1.0% increase (from 1.1%) in July.
- The key takeaway from the report is the nondefense capital good orders, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending—jumped 0.6% on the heels of a 0.8% increase in July.
- The Advance International Trade in Goods deficit narrowed to $85.5 billion from an upwardly revised $102.8 billion (from -$103.6 billion) in July. Advance Retail Inventories were flat following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.2%) in July, and Advance Wholesale Inventories were down 0.2% following a downwardly revised unchanged reading (from 0.2%) in July.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it had tariff policies written on it, evidenced by the fact that imports were $19.6 billion less than July imports, while exports were $2.3 billion less than July exports.
- Existing home sales dipped 0.2% month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million (Briefing.com consensus 3.99 million) from an unrevised 4.01 million in July. Sales were up 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
- The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in August were still constrained by high prices, higher mortgage rates, and limited supply. The biggest month-over-month increase in sales was in the Midwest, which is also the region with the lowest median price (by a lot).
Energy sector the sole advancing sector today
25-Sep-25 15:25 ET
Dow -199.23 at 45921.84, Nasdaq -131.94 at 22365.92, S&P -38.50 at 6599.46
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to hold losses nearing the close as stocks have faced a broad-based retreat today.
Only the energy sector (+0.7%) holds a gain for the day, as it is the only sector to spend any considerable amount of time in positive territory today.
While the sector has outperformed this week in conjunction with a rising price of oil, crude oil futures settled today's session just $0.01 higher (+0.02%) at $65.01 per barrel.
Today's advance has been driven by some bargain hunting in a sector that has been among this month's laggards. The energy sector has gained 3.5% this week, but it still trails the S&P 500 on the September leaderboard with a month-to-date gain of 1.3% versus a 2.2% September gain in the S&P 500.
Refiners such as Valero Energy (VLO 175.42, +4.60, +2.69%) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 195.75, +2.65, +1.37%) have risen to their best levels since April 2024.
TikTok deal to be finalized this afternoon
25-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow -170.66 at 45950.41, Nasdaq -119.90 at 22377.96, S&P -33.95 at 6604.01
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.4%) remain firmly beneath their baselines as the market enters the final hour of today's action.
CNBC reports that President Trump is set to sign a finalized deal for TikTok this afternoon, with Oracle (ORCL 291.81, -16.65, -5.40%), Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi's MGX to be the main investors in TikTok U.S.
35% of TikTok U.S. will be owned by General Atlantic and several other firms and ByteDance will only own 19% of TikTok U.S. after the deal is finalized.
Oracle's stock popped earlier in the month after announcing an impressive increase in its RPO backlog. Even after facing some profit-taking this week, the stock is still up over 29% month-to-date.
S&P 500 slides as CarMax drags discretionary, Coinbase tracks crypto drop; Intel pops on upgrade
25-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow -216.26 at 45904.81, Nasdaq -173.41 at 22324.45, S&P -45.19 at 6592.77
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.68%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, down 45 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Tapestry (TPR 107.07, -6.35, -5.60%), Coinbase Global (COIN 308.37, -13.40, -4.16%), and Deckers Outdoor (DECK 106.61, -4.62, -4.15%) pepper the bottom of the standings. Consumer discretionary stocks, like TPR and DECK, are weaker in sympathy to Carmax's (KMX 46.19, -10.86, -19.04%) results, while COIN slips as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, too, fall.
Meanwhile, Intel (INTC 33.35, +2.13, +6.82%) is today's top performer following this morning's upgrade to Neutral out of Seaport Research Partners.
Gold ekes out small gain despite dollar strength, upbeat U.S. data
25-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -223.05 at 45898.02, Nasdaq -190.51 at 22307.35, S&P -48.99 at 6588.97
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.85%) is in last place, down about 190 points.
Gold futures settled $3.00 higher (+0.1%) at $3,771.10/oz, a modest gain given the dollar's rise and a run of stronger-than-expected U.S. data on GDP, jobless claims, and durable goods. Traders still kept some bids under bullion, viewing the Fed's easing path and rate-cut expectations as a counterbalance to the resilient economic backdrop.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.7% to $98.51.
Birkenstock's upgraded outlook reflects resilient demand, strong pricing power amid headwinds (BIRK)
Birkenstock (BIRK) provided upside guidance for Q4, forecasting revenue to at least €520 mln, implying growth of at least 14% (18% constant currency) despite ongoing FX headwinds. The German sandal and clog maker also reaffirmed its FY25 adjusted EBITDA margin range of 31.3–31.8%.
- Q4 revenue guide of €520 mln+ reflects resilient demand and full-price selling strategy, even amid a tough macro retail environment.
- FX headwinds remain a challenge, but constant currency growth of 18% highlights strong underlying demand trends.
- B2B sales rose 15% yr/yr in Q3, and management expects B2B to outpace DTC in Q4, aided by a consumer shift back toward in-store shopping.
- Higher-income customers continue gravitating toward the brand, supporting robust margins and EPS growth despite broader retail weakness.
- BIRK acquired a production facility near Dresden for €18 mln (€240/sqm due to seller bankruptcy), expected to be operational by end of FY27 -- securing future capacity to meet growing demand.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
BIRK’s update underscores its positioning as a premium lifestyle brand relatively insulated from consumer spending volatility. The reaffirmed margin outlook, coupled with upside revenue guidance, highlights pricing power and disciplined cost management. The strong B2B momentum -- set to outpace DTC in Q4 -- also speaks to the strategic benefit of shifting channel dynamics. The Dresden factory acquisition at distressed pricing is another example of opportunistic capital allocation that should expand capacity over time. That said, FX remains a headwind and broader retail sentiment fragile, meaning BRIK’s premium valuation demands continued flawless execution. For now, the brand’s resilience and ability to drive double-digit constant-currency growth make it one of the stronger operators in global footwear retail.
CarMax stuck in reverse as Q2 results fall short of expectations (KMX)
CarMax (KMX) is under pressure after posting a sizable top- and bottom-line miss in its Q2 (Aug) report. EPS missed by the widest margin in 11 quarters, while revenue fell 6% yr/yr to $6.6 bln, the first decline in four quarters and steepest in five.
- Comp sales fell 6.3% vs. +8.1% in Q1, snapping a 4-qtr growth streak. Each month weakened sequentially, though September is trending slightly better but still down yr/yr.
- Total retail and wholesale units fell 4.1% yr/yr to 338,031. Retail declined 5.4% to 199,729, while wholesale slipped 2.2% to 138,302.
- CarMax Auto Financing (CAF) income dropped 11% to $103 mln as a 26% yr/yr increase in loan loss provisions offset margin gains. Allowance rose to 3.02% from 2.76% in Q1.
- Management had expected growth in CAF but now sees flat to down results as as greater than anticipated losses from the 2022-23 vintages mount.
- The problem: inventory was ramped in Q1 on tariff pull-forward expectations, which did not materialize in Q2. This led to greater depreciation and less competitive pricing in Q2. To drive sell-through, KMX cut retail margins and slowed vehicle purchases.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was a tough quarter for KMX and raises questions about execution. The tariff-driven pull-forward in Q1 did not repeat, leaving the company with excess inventory and reduced pricing power, a key concern in a consumer sensitive category. At the same time, credit deterioration in CAF is hurting results after management had signaled growth. Although September trends show some improvement, the softness implies a more prolonged reset, keeping investor sentiment cautious.
Jabil Investors Book Profits Despite Strong Q4 Upside (JBL)
Jabil is trading sharply lower despite delivering its biggest core EPS beat in five years and strong 18.5% yr/yr revenue growth in Q4 (Aug) to $8.25 bln, well above its prior $7.1-7.8 bln guidance. All three segments topped expectations, marking Jabil's strongest top-line growth in three years.
- Q1 (Nov) guidance came in above expectations, with its FY26 outlook also beating consensus, though not a "blowout" vs. high investor hopes.
- Operating margin improved 50 bps yr/yr to 6.3%, notable for a typically thin-margin business.
- Jabil saw broad-based upside in AI-related end markets — including cloud, data center infrastructure, and capital equipment.
- Softness in EVs, Renewables, and 5G was noted, though partially offset by gains in industrial automation and strategic repositioning.
Looking ahead, Jabil expects:
- Intelligent Infrastructure segment to lead Q1 growth with $3.67 bln in revenue, up 47% yr/yr, fueled by sustained AI/data center strength.
- Regulated Industries to grow 3% yr/yr to $3.05 bln.
- Connected Living & Digital Commerce, its smallest segment, to decline 16% yr/yr to $1.29 bln as Jabil exits lower-margin programs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Jabil crushed expectations across the board and is clearly riding high-growth trends in AI infrastructure and industrial automation. However, with the stock up nearly $40 since early September, sentiment was stretched — and investors appeared disappointed with FY26 guidance that, while solid, didn't deliver the high-octane upside some were hoping for. Still, Jabil's broad positioning across the entire AI hardware ecosystem makes it a name to watch, even if near-term profit-taking is in play.
KB Home beats Q3 EPS expectations, but housing affordability headwinds weigh on outlook (KBH)
KB Home (KBH) reported a solid Q3 but tempered its full-year outlook as affordability and a cool housing market pressured volumes and margins. The homebuilder beat EPS expectations while pulling FY25 housing revenue guidance down to $6.10-$6.20 bln and signaled a near-term margin trough before a planned pivot back toward higher-margin built-to-order (BTO) homes.
- Deliveries fell 7% yr/yr to 3,393 homes; net orders were 2,950 (down 4%) and backlog declined 24% to 4,300 homes.
- Average selling price slipped modestly to about $475,000 (Q3 order ASP down 1% y/y).
- Housing gross profit margin (adjusted, ex-inventory charges) declined to 18.9% from 20.7% a year earlier, pressured by price reductions, incentives and higher relative land costs.
- KBH lowered FY25 housing revenue guidance to $6.10–$6.20 bln from $6.30–$6.50 bln and expects full-year housing gross profit margin of 19.2-19.3%.
- Liquidity and capital returns remain strengths: cash and revolver liquidity of $1.2 bln, Q3 share repurchases $188 mln (approximately $440 mln YTD), book value per share grew to $60.25.
- Operational positives: Continued reductions in build times to 130 days, 32 new communities opened, 6,550 homes in production with approximately 52% sold, and ownership/control of approximately 65,000 lots.
- Market context: Mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly high despite a recent Fed cut, keeping affordability strained and contributing to the softer demand environment (KBH cited similarities to recent weakness at peer LEN).
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
KBH’s Q3 delivered a combination of execution and financial discipline -- better-than-expected EPS, improved build productivity and hefty shareholder returns -- but the headline still carries an asterisk. The company is being prudent: it trimmed revenue guidance and acknowledged margin pressure driven by mix, elevated land costs and defensive pricing in pockets where resale competition intensified. The bright spots, including faster build times, a large lot pipeline, strong liquidity and a clear plan to push back toward BTO (which management says carries 250-400 bps higher margins), provide a credible path to margin recovery if and when mortgage affordability meaningfully improves. For now, KBH looks well-positioned operationally and financially, but the near-term topline and margin trajectory remain exposed to a slow housing rebound.
Cintas Trades Flat After Modest Q1 Beat; Guidance Increase Calms Job Market Fears (CTAS)
Cintas is trading flat after delivering a lukewarm Q1 (Aug) report this morning. The uniform and facility services provider posted slightly better-than-expected EPS and revenue, with revenue up 8.7% yr/yr to $2.72 bln — a decent number, though below the company's usual beat cadence.
- Q1 upside was modest, continuing a trend of muted beats over the past two quarters.
- Cintas raised FY26 guidance, and the increase exceeded the Q1 upside, implying potential strength in Q2-Q4.
- Management cited steady retention rates, a resilient customer base, and a value proposition that continues to resonate — even in uncertain macro conditions.
- The company noted no meaningful changes in customer sales cycles despite a soft labor market.
- Key growth drivers remain converting "no-programmers" and cross-selling to existing clients.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Cintas's flat reaction suggests the market had already priced in a softer quarter, especially given the weak recent payroll data. The slight guidance raise helped offset fears of a potential cut, which is a win under the circumstances. Still, investors will want to see a return to more robust upside over the next few quarters. The stock has pulled back from ~$225 to ~$200 in recent weeks, likely reflecting jobs-related concerns. For now, Cintas remains steady, but upside execution needs to reaccelerate.
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