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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (95309)9/26/2025 3:48:47 PM
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More on the AI Bubble from WSJ:

Company executives this week laid out plans that would require at least $1 trillion in data-center investment, and Altman recently committed the company to pay Oracle an average of around $60 billion a year for servers in data centers in coming years. Yet OpenAI is on track to take in just $13 billion in revenue from all its paying customers this year.

Today’s numbers are far larger than the dot-com bubble, implying a massive shift in the economy would be needed to make these investments worthwhile.

David Cahn, a partner at venture-capital firm Sequoia, estimates that the money invested in AI infrastructure in 2023 and 2024 alone requires consumers and companies to buy roughly $800 billion in AI products over the life of these chips and data centers to produce a good investment return. Analysts believe most AI processors have a useful life of between three and five years.

This week, consultants at Bain & Co. estimated the wave of AI infrastructure spending will require $2 trillion in annual AI revenue by 2030. By comparison, that is more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia, and more than five times the size of the entire global subscription software market.

Morgan Stanley estimates that last year there was around $45 billion of revenue for AI products. The sector makes money from a combination of subscription fees for chatbots such as ChatGPT and money paid to use these companies’ data centers.

How the tech sector will cover the gap is “the trillion dollar question,” said Mark Moerdler, an analyst at Bernstein.
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