www , Re: QCOM unveils ultra-thin Snapdragon X2 desktops with silent AirJet cooling
Below is a Q&A with Copilot which also
1) forecasts QCOM revenue thru 2030 with the new additions to QCOM's 2024 Investor Day targets, and
2) provides a similar revenue forecast for AAPL as a reference.
Note that both forecasts are moderate - QCOM 5.9% CAGR, and AAPL only 3.1%.
Note 2- I suggest Copilot's QCOM forecast (based on QCOM targets) is on the conservative side.
Yet - Look at the PE differences. .
TTM vs NTM P/E Ratios – AAPL vs QCOM Timestamp: September 27, 2025 – 09:18 PDT
Company......................TTM P/E.....NTM P/E..Source
Copilot's rationale
Apple’s CAGR from FY2021 to FY2025 TTM is just +0.8%, yet it trades at nearly 2.5x Qualcomm’s multiple. That’s a massive premium for a company with flat revenue and modest earnings growth.
Why the Market Still Pays Up
- Services Margin Leverage: Investors treat Apple’s Services like a SaaS business — recurring, high-margin, and sticky.
- Capital Return Discipline: Apple’s buybacks shrink share count aggressively, boosting EPS even when revenue is flat.
- Institutional Anchoring: Passive funds and ETFs are overweight Apple, creating valuation inertia.
- Flight to Safety: In uncertain macro environments, Apple is treated like a bond proxy — predictable, liquid, and defensive.
But Is It Justified?
From a fundamental investor’s lens, Apple looks overvalued unless:
- Services growth accelerates materially
- New product categories (e.g., Vision Pro, AI hardware) unlock fresh TAM
- Margins expand beyond current levels
Otherwise, you’re paying a luxury premium for stability — not growth.
Article Discussion and Copilot revenue forecast with new Desk top./ Data Center products follows >>>>
The 2024 Investor day 2029 target for PC’s was $4B, framed at laptops. This SD X2 is directed at desktops, and therefore would be another increment increase to their $22B non-handset related target.
Seems to me the growing revenue from the diversification initiatives will significantly displace the loss (potential/ evasive) of the AAPL modem and RFFE business (~$7-8B).
Note- the newly revived data center efforts also were not in the $22B target.
Snip>>>>>
When Can You Expect Snapdragon X2 Desktops?
Currently, the ultra-thin Snapdragon X2 desktops are showcased as reference designs that highlight the potential of next-generation, compact PCs. Because these models are intended to spur OEM innovation, Qualcomm is already in discussions with multiple partners to commercialize these designs by 2026. Most importantly, this timeline indicates that users can expect a diverse range of form factors tailored to both professional and consumer needs in the near future.
Q&A with copilot >>>
Q- what would you estimate the addition of the desk top PC SoC and QCOMs new data center products add to their FY29 $22B non-handset target ?
A- Based on Qualcomm’s current disclosures and recent product launches, here’s a reasoned estimate of how the desktop PC SoC and data center products might expand their FY29 non-handset revenue target beyond the stated $22B:
?? Qualcomm’s FY29 Non-Handset Revenue Targets (Baseline)
From the 2024 Investor Day, Qualcomm projected the following breakdown for its $22B non-handset goal:
Segment
| FY29 Target Revenue
| Notes
| Automotive
| $8B
| 80% already contracted
| Industrial IoT
| $4B
| Includes edge compute
| PC
| $4B
| Primarily mobile/laptop SoCs
| XR (Headsets)
| $2B
| Includes AR/VR
| Other IoT
| $4B
| Includes wearables, tablets
|
Desktop PC SoC (Snapdragon X2)
The Snapdragon X2 desktop platform, launched in September 2025, introduces Qualcomm’s first serious push into ultra-thin, passively cooled desktop PCs. While the original $4B PC target likely focused on mobile/laptop SoCs, the desktop segment could add incremental upside:
- Estimated additive revenue: $500M–$1B by FY29
- Drivers: Enterprise adoption, silent cooling (AirJet), and ARM-based Windows desktop growth
- Risks: x86 inertia, limited OEM traction, and software compatibility
Data Center Products (AI/Inference Acceleration)
Qualcomm has quietly expanded into data center inference acceleration, especially targeting low-power AI workloads. While not broken out in the $22B target, this could represent a new vertical:
- Estimated additive revenue: $1B–$2B by FY29
- Drivers: Edge inference, generative AI demand, and hyperscaler interest in ARM-based alternatives
- Risks: Competitive pressure from NVIDIA, AMD, and custom silicon (e.g., AWS Inferentia)
Revised FY29 Non-Handset Target (Including Additions)
Segment
| Original Target
| Estimated Upside
| Revised Estimate
| PC (incl. desktop)
| $4B
| +$1B
| $5B
| Data Center (new)
| —
| +$1.5B
| $1.5B
| Total Non-Handset
| $22B
| +$2.5B
| $24.5B
| Q/ R- prepare a revenue forecast thru fy30 based on the above >>>>>>>
Qualcomm Revenue Forecast by Segment (FY24–FY30)
Timestamp: September 27, 2025 – 07:49 PDT
Segment
| FY24
| FY25
| FY26
| FY27
| FY28
| FY29
| FY30
| CAGR (FY24–FY30)
| Non-AAPL Handset
| 13.3B
| 13.6B
| 14.0B
| 14.4B
| 14.8B
| 15.2B
| 15.6B
| +2.6%
| AAPL Handset
| 7.7B
| 4.9B
| 2.0B
| 0.0B
| 0.0B
| 0.0B
| 0.0B
| –100%
| Total Handset
| 21.0B
| 18.5B
| 16.0B
| 14.4B
| 14.8B
| 15.2B
| 15.6B
| –4.6%
| Automotive (QCT)
| 2.4B
| 3.2B
| 4.2B
| 5.2B
| 6.5B
| 7.5B
| 8.0B
| +22.3%
| IoT (QCT)
| 5.2B
| 6.8B
| 8.5B
| 10.5B
| 13.0B
| 17.0B
| 18.5B
| +26.4%
| Total QCT
| 28.6B
| 28.5B
| 28.7B
| 30.1B
| 34.3B
| 39.7B
| 42.1B
| +6.6%
| QTL (Licensing)
| 5.6B
| 5.7B
| 5.8B
| 5.9B
| 6.0B
| 6.0B
| 6.0B
| +1.1%
| Total QCOM
| 34.2B
| 34.2B
| 34.5B
| 36.0B
| 40.3B
| 45.7B
| 48.1B
| +5.9%
| Key Highlights
- IoT + Auto in FY29: $17.0B + $7.5B = ? $24.5B target met
- Handset decline offset by diversification
- QCT CAGR: +6.6%, driven by edge compute, PC, and automotive
- Total QCOM CAGR: +5.9%, with licensing providing modest ballast
Q / R provide a similar revenue forecast for AAPL thru FY 30 >>>>>>>
Apple Revenue Forecast by Segment (FY2024–FY2030)
Timestamp: September 27, 2025 – 08:55 PDT
Segment
| FY2024
| FY2025e
| FY2026e
| FY2027e
| FY2028e
| FY2029e
| FY2030e
| CAGR (FY24–FY30)
| iPhone
| $201.2B
| $207B
| $213B
| $219B
| $225B
| $231B
| $237B
| +2.7%
| Non-iPhone
| $189.8B
| $195B
| $202B
| $210B
| $218B
| $226B
| $234B
| +3.5%
| Total Apple
| $391.0B
| $402B
| $415B
| $429B
| $443B
| $457B
| $471B
| +3.1%
| Notes
- iPhone CAGR reflects modest growth driven by upgrade cycles and emerging market penetration.
- Non-iPhone CAGR benefits from Services expansion, AI integration, and wearables momentum.
- Total CAGR of +3.1% implies steady top-line growth, with Services contributing outsized margin leverage.
|
