3 Energy Stocks That Could Benefit From Geopolitical TensionsWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 9/19/2025.
Key Points- Energy stocks have lagged in 2025, but geopolitical tensions could shift supply-demand dynamics quickly.
- ExxonMobil and Chevron provide scale, dividends, and exposure to the Permian Basin for stability and upside.
- Baker Hughes offers leveraged exposure to rising oilfield activity if energy prices climb.
To the surprise of many investors, energy stocks quietly underperformed in 2025—particularly oil and gas names.
Despite steady U.S. production, efficiency gains and softer global demand have kept energy prices in check, benefiting consumers. Lower oil and gas costs have also provided relief as inflation remains persistent elsewhere in the economy.
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Yet history shows supply-demand dynamics can shift abruptly when geopolitics intervene. Investors need only recall 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring, or 2025, when U.S. military action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure underscored how quickly energy supply chains can be disrupted.
In such environments, energy companies with scale, strong finances and diversified operations often outperform. They have the resources to weather volatility and generate steady cash flows, rewarding shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
Here are three energy blue chips that could benefit if geopolitical tensions escalate: Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) and Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR).
Exxon Mobil: Dominance in Oil and LNG, with Shareholder RewardsThanks to its global footprint and strong balance sheet, Exxon Mobil remains one of the most reliable names in energy. As a leading producer in the Permian Basin—among the world’s most productive oil fields—it enjoys a cost advantage that underpins profitability even when prices fluctuate.
Moreover, Exxon Mobil is a major investor in liquefied natural gas (LNG). As Europe and parts of Asia seek alternatives to Russian and Middle Eastern supply, its LNG infrastructure stands to benefit from shifting trade flows.
Exxon also delivers considerable shareholder value. In its latest quarter, the company returned $9.2 billion to investors, including $5 billion in buybacks. It is a dividend aristocrat, offering a yield above 3.4% and boasting 42 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Chevron: Global Diversification and a Reliable IncomeIf Exxon Mobil leads the sector, Chevron is a close second. The integrated oil giant shares many advantages with its peer but also has unique strengths that shine during uncertain times.
Chevron’s significant presence in the Permian Basin was bolstered by its merger with Hess, giving it low-cost operations that cushion against price swings. Its international portfolio—spanning LNG projects in Australia and upstream investments in Kazakhstan—adds further resilience against localized disruptions.
Financially conservative, Chevron sustains shareholder returns across cycles. Like Exxon, it is a dividend aristocrat, having raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years. As of this writing, the yield stands at 4.28%, among the highest in the sector.
Baker Hughes: Oilfield Services with Upside ExposureBaker Hughes is poised to benefit if producers ramp up spending in response to higher prices. As one of the world’s largest oilfield services companies, it supplies the technology and equipment that enable exploration and production.
The company is also expanding in digital technologies and emissions-reduction solutions, positioning itself for the evolving energy mix. Financially, Baker Hughes has improved margins and reduced debt, bolstering its ability to deliver consistent results. BKR stock is up 13% in 2025, and analysts project earnings growth of over 15% in the next 12 months.
While Baker Hughes’ dividend yield trails its integrated peers, it is supported by share repurchases. Should geopolitical tensions drive oil and gas prices higher, producers are likely to increase capital spending—boosting Baker Hughes’ order book. |
