Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46315.86 | +68.78 | (0.15%) | | Nasdaq | 22591.16 | +107.09 | (0.48%) | | SP 500 | 6661.20 | +17.51 | (0.26%) | | 10-yr Note |
|
|
|
| | NYSE | Adv 1337 | Dec 1405 | Vol 1.24 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2505 | Dec 2131 | Vol 9.10 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Information Technology, Communication Services, Industrials, Real Estate, Materials, Utilitites |
| | Weak: Energy, Communication Services |
Moving the Market
Early strength in mega-cap tech names fading throughout the session
Market seemingly unphased by prospect of government shutdown
|
Major averages close modestly higher as early mega-cap strength wanes
29-Sep-25 16:30 ET
Dow +68.78 at 46315.86, Nasdaq +107.09 at 22591.16, S&P +17.51 at 6661.20
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market opened to decent gains across its mega-cap names on the heels of Friday's strong session, but a lack of follow-through buying activity saw the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) close beneath their session highs, though the DJIA (+0.2%) reversed an early loss.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished with a modest 0.4% gain after holding a gain close to 1.0% early in the session, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.3%) performed in line with the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.3%).
The information technology sector (+0.5%) led all S&P 500 sectors for the majority of the session but ended up with a gain similar to that of the financials (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.6%), and materials (+0.4%) sectors.
Chipmakers led the early rally, pushing the PHLX Semiconductor Index to an early 1.4% gain before retreating and closing just 0.2% above its baseline. NVIDIA (NVDA 181.88, +3.69, +2.07%) still closed with a nice gain, moving further past its 50-day moving average (176.74).
The sector also benefitted from strong performances from memory chip names such as Western Digital (WDC 116.74, +9.86, +9.23%) and Seagate Tech (STX 229.14, +11.63, +5.35%), which were among the top performers in the S&P 500 today.
In total, nine S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory, though only the consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%) advanced more than 0.5%.
Breadth figures were razor thin for the entirety of today's action, reflecting a lack of conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers amid a relatively quiet day from a headlines perspective. Decliners outpaced advancers by a roughly 7-to-6 margin on the NYSE, while advancers held a 6-to-5 edge on the Nasdaq.
The energy sector (-1.9%) was the outlier in today's trade, moving sharply lower as crude oil futures settled the session $2.21 lower (-3.4%) at $63.48 per barrel following reports that OPEC+ will likely increase outputs in November.
The communication services sector (-0.5%) also closed lower due to weakness in Alphabet (GOOG 244.36, -2.82, -1.14%) and Meta Platforms (META 743.40, -0.35, -0.05%) as mega-cap strength waned throughout the session.
The sector was, however, home to one of the more exciting corporate headlines today, as Electronic Arts (EA 202.05, +8.70, +4.50%) announced the company will be taken private in an all-cash deal worth roughly $55 billion. Shareholders are set to receive $210 per share in cash, a 25% premium to EA's unaffected $168.32 close on Sept. 25.
Macro-headlines today were also relatively slim, with much of the focus centering around the looming government shutdown if a funding agreement is not reached.
Senator Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote again tomorrow on a continuing resolution to fund the government for 7 weeks, with Reuters adding that Senate Democrats are weighing short-term funding measures to avert a shutdown ahead of the Tuesday deadline.
According to CNBC, a government shutdown would halt Labor Department operations, preventing the release of Friday's much-anticipated Employment Situation Report. With conflicting views around the appropriate monetary policy path, notable economic data releases take on added significance ahead of the October FOMC meeting.
The market's current rate cut expectations held steady amid a lack of data releases today, though Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC nonvoting member) told CNBC that the current environment is "a challenging time for monetary policy."
U.S. Treasuries began the week on a firmly higher note with longer tenors leading the market higher. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.63%, and the 10-year note yield settled down five basis points to 4.14%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +17.0% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: +9.2% YTD
- DJIA: +8.9% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: + 4.5% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Pending Home Sales were up 4.0% in August (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after decreasing a revised 0.3% (from -0.4%) in July.
Mega-cap gains substantially narrowed
29-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow +30.66 at 46277.74, Nasdaq +71.45 at 22555.52, S&P +7.79 at 6651.48
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) now defends its flatline just before the close, with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) and DJIA (flat) also near session lows.
Early gains in the mega-cap space that boosted the major averages have eroded, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF up just 0.3%.
The comunication services sector (-0.6%) now faces a loss for the day as Alphabet (GOOG 243.83, -3.35, -1.36%) and Meta Platforms (META 743.32, -0.43, -0.06%) both trade lower.
A decline in mega-cap performance now sees the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.3%) outperforming the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.1%).
Senate to vote on government funding resloution
29-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow +54.33 at 46301.41, Nasdaq +110.63 at 22594.70, S&P +14.65 at 6658.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The DJIA (+0.1%) joins the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) in positive territory as the market enters the final hour of the session.
Senator Majority Leader John Thune says the Senate will vote again tomorrow on a continuing resolution to fund the government for 7 weeks ahead of a looming government shutdown
According to CNBC, a government shutdown would halt Labor Department operations, preventing the release of Friday's Employment Situation Report.
S&P 500 gains as WDC, TTD, and Kellanova lead; Devon slips on oil weakness
29-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +29.59 at 46276.67, Nasdaq +130.34 at 22614.41, S&P +16.96 at 6660.65
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.26%) is in second place on Monday afternoon, up about 17 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Western Digital (WDC 114.90, +8.02, +7.50%), The Trade Desk (TTD 50.43, +3.29, +6.98%), and Kellanova (K 81.99, +4.05, +5.20%) pepper the top of the standings. WDC rises after multiple analysts raised price targets, citing an emerging multi-year HDD upcycle fueled by AI-driven data center demand, supply shortages, and stronger pricing power, while Kellanova advances amid reports the company may get clearance from the European Union for its Mars deal.
Meanwhile, Devon Energy (DVN 35.59, -1.40, -3.78%) is one of today's worst performers, slipping as today's fall in crude oil prices dents the stock.
Gold rallies above $3,850 on Fed cut bets, dollar weakness, and haven demand
29-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -26.44 at 46220.64, Nasdaq +100.59 at 22584.66, S&P +11.51 at 6655.20
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.45%) is atop the standings on Monday afternoon, up about 100 points.
Gold futures settled $46.20 higher (+1.2%) at $3,855.20/oz, boosted by a weaker dollar and growing bets on Fed rate cuts after benign inflation data. Safe-haven demand tied to U.S. fiscal uncertainty, alongside ETF inflows and central bank buying, added further support.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.2% to $97.96.
Genmab to acquire Merus in $8 bln deal, adding late-stage breakthrough therapy to pipeline (GMAB)
Genmab (GMAB) announced this morning it will acquire Merus (MRUS) for $97 per share in an all-cash deal valued at about $8.0 bln, bringing Merus's late-stage oncology asset petosemtamab into GMAB's pipeline strategy. The offer represents a 41% premium to MRUS's Friday closing price, with the transaction expected to close by early Q1 2026.
- The acquisition accelerates Genmab's shift to a fully owned model, expanding its late-stage pipeline and positioning the company for multiple proprietary launches by 2027.
- Petosemtamab, Merus's lead asset, is a bispecific antibody in Phase 3 trials for head and neck cancer. It has been granted two FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designations for head and neck cancer indications.
- The $8 bln deal will be funded with $2.5 bln in cash and $5.5 bln in new, largely prepayable debt. Management is targeting leverage below 3x within two years and sees potential for a 2027 launch, with petosemtamab contributing meaningfully to revenue by 2029.
- Risks remain as petosemtamab is still unapproved, and setbacks in Phase 3 would weigh heavily on returns. The high purchase price and added leverage also create financial pressure if trial results disappoint.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
While GMAB is trading modestly lower on the news, likely reflecting investor unease over the sizable premium and added leverage, the deal underscores a strategic push to secure a fully owned late-stage oncology asset. Petosemtamab could provide a meaningful lift if Phase 3 data support earlier efficacy, but the therapy remains unapproved, and setbacks would weigh heavily given the $8 bln price tag. The reliance on debt financing also raises execution risk, putting pressure on management to deliver trial success and reduce leverage in a timely manner.
DoorDash grocery gains momentum as Kroger launches nationwide offering, pressuring Instacart (DASH)
Starting October 1, 2025, DoorDash (DASH) will offer full grocery delivery from nearly 2,700 Kroger (KR) -owned stores across the U.S., marking a significant expansion from its previous offerings of sushi, flowers, and prepared meals from select locations. The expanded partnership with KR is expected to positively impact DoorDash's financial metrics.
- The addition of KR's extensive grocery selection is likely to drive significant increases in Gross Order Volume (GOV). DASH previously guided for 3Q25 GOV of $24.2-$24.7 bln. With a broader product offering, DASH also anticipates a rise in the number of orders processed.
- The expansion is expected to contribute to improved adjusted EBITDA margins, following the trend observed in 2Q25, where adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of Marketplace GOV increased to 2.7% from 2.2% in the previous year.
- Grocery delivery has become a significant component of DASH's operations. While the company does not break out specific revenue or GOV figures for the grocery category in its quarterly reports, it has consistently highlighted grocery as a key growth driver.
- Instacart (CART) is selling off sharply following the announcement, reflecting investor concern over increased competition in the grocery delivery sector. The expanded partnership between DASH and KR could potentially erode CART's market share, especially as KR continues to collaborate with multiple delivery platforms.
Briefing.com Insight:
DASH’s expanded partnership with KR marks a major step in growing its grocery delivery business, making full store assortments available at nearly 2,700 locations starting October 1. This expansion is likely to increase gross order volume, total orders, and adjusted EBITDA, while intensifying competition for CART and other grocery delivery platforms. Grocery delivery is already a growing component of DASH’s overall business, and this partnership underscores the company’s strategy to diversify beyond restaurant delivery and capture a larger share of the broader grocery market.
Carnival cruising lower despite beat-and-raise Q3 report; booking trends are improving (CCL)
Carnival (CCL) is trading lower today despite posting another strong quarter and raising guidance. For Q3 (Aug), the company delivered its third consecutive double-digit EPS beat, while revenue rose 3.3% yr/yr to $8.15 bln, marking a tenth straight quarter of record sales.
- Strength was fueled by robust close-in demand, higher on-board spending, and disciplined cost controls. Net yields hit an all-time high, up 4.6% in constant currency (same-ship basis), beating guidance by 1.1 pts. Gross margin yields rose 6.4% yr/yr, while customer deposits reached a record $7.1 bln.
- As a result, net income climbed to a record $1.9 bln (+$116 mln vs. 2024), surpassing the prior peak set in 2019. Adjusted EBITDA also set a record at $3.0 bln.
- A positive here is that booking trends continue to improve, with nearly half of 2026 booked, in line with 2025's record levels but at historically high prices. Management highlighted that 2027 is also off to a record start.
- CCL raised FY25 EPS outlook for the third straight quarter, now calling for ~55% yr/yr growth, and guided Q4 EPS above consensus. The FY25 raise exceeded the size of the Q3 beat, suggesting some room for further upside.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was a strong quarter for CCL. Cruise demand remains healthy, with management pointing to firm bookings into 2026 and even 2027. The company is executing well on cost controls while benefitting from stronger pricing, underscoring resilience in the category. Despite the solid results and guidance raise, the stock seems to be pulling back in a sell-the-news move rather than any weakness in fundamentals. With record results and improving booking trends, the beat-and-raise report also sets a constructive tone for peers Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH).
Electronic Arts to be taken private in $55 bln deal, putting gaming industry in spotlight (EA)
Electronic Arts (EA) agreed to be taken private in a landmark transaction that values the company at roughly $55 bln -- shareholders will receive $210 per share in cash (a 25% premium to EA’s unaffected $168.32 close on Sept. 25). The announcement follows a Wall Street Journal report late last week that EA was nearing a roughly $50 bln deal, which had already sent the stock higher ahead of the definitive announcement.
- The consortium is led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) together with Silver Lake and Affinity Partners; PIF will roll its existing 9.9% stake into the transaction. The transaction structure values EA’s equity at roughly $52.5-$55 bln and includes a mix of equity and debt financing.
- PIF has been building a big gaming portfolio (and will keep an ownership stake), Silver Lake brings tech/gaming buyout experience, and Affinity adds a U.S. financial sponsor connection.
- For PIF, the deal accelerates their gaming strategy; for the sponsors, EA’s stable cash flows, live-services franchises, and upcoming tentpole releases (e.g., Battlefield) present a path to drive incremental bookings and margin expansion away from public-market scrutiny.
- EA beat Q1 net bookings and EPS on July 29 but guided Q2 bookings below Street expectations, citing EA SPORTS FC 26 content phasing, a normalized College Football sales curve, and higher Battlefield 6 marketing spend.
- Net bookings have swung –20% to +8% over the past five quarters, reflecting the lumpiness of big releases, edition phasing, and live-service cadence.
- Since 2021, EA shares are up +20% (excluding acquisition-related gains) vs. +75% for the Nasdaq, weighed down by franchise execution issues, cyclicality, and investor preference for faster-growth software.
- Take-Two (TTWO) could benefit modestly from M&A comps, while Roblox (RBLX) may attract private capital interest despite its different model and demographics.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The EA buyout is a watershed transaction for gaming: a 25% cash premium is attractive to public holders and reflects private buyers’ willingness to pay for large, cash-generative gaming franchises and the flexibility to re-phase product roadmaps away from quarter-to-quarter public scrutiny. For EA’s public peers, expect a mixed reaction -- an initial valuation rerate on deal comps, followed by selective investor appetite for companies that can clearly demonstrate less lumpy revenue recognition and stronger long-term monetization roadmaps.
Meta denies reliance on Google AI for ad targeting, characterizing work as "benchmarking" (META)
Meta Platforms (META) is reportedly in discussions with Google (GOOG) about potentially using its Gemini AI models to enhance ad targeting, according to The Information. Some META employees have even considered tweaking Gemini and Gemma models with META’s own ad data, which, if true, suggests internal concern that META may be lagging GOOG in the broader AI race.
- A META spokesperson quickly downplayed the report in a Threads post, saying, “No, what’s happening here is part of the work we regularly do to evaluate third-party tools for the purpose of benchmarking.”
- This response comes against the backdrop of META’s strong in-house AI momentum. In Q2, advertising revenue grew 22% yr/yr, driven by a 9% increase in average ad prices and an 11% gain in impressions across its Family of Apps.
- META’s proprietary AI innovations -- including Advantage+, Andromeda, and GEM (Global Engagement Model) -- have delivered meaningful improvements in ad targeting precision and return on ad spend, helping sustain advertiser demand.
- The company continues to double down on its own AI roadmap, with FY25 capital expenditures projected at $66–$72 bln, much of it earmarked for Meta Superintelligence Labs. The initiative, co-led by Scale AI’s Alexandr Wang, is focused on advancing personal superintelligence technologies.
- If META were truly leaning on GOOG for core ad-targeting AI, it would mark a sharp reversal from this aggressive internal investment trajectory and raise questions about confidence in its proprietary stack.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While the headline of META testing Gemini models fuels speculation about competitive gaps, the company’s clarification makes sense: benchmarking rivals’ tools is standard practice. With ad growth accelerating and proprietary AI engines like Advantage+ and GEM powering returns, META has little incentive to cede ground to GOOG in its core business. Instead, the story underscores heightened scrutiny of META’s AI efforts as competition intensifies. Investors should view this episode less as evidence of dependency on GOOG and more as a reminder that the AI arms race is forcing even leaders like META to constantly stress-test their platforms.
|
