Somatogen / SMTG Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Somatogen / SMTG

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To: Richard gan who wrote (11)	10/14/1996 2:05:00 AM
From: Michael Collins	of 16

I used to be a big fan of NFLD; even liked it over Somatogen. But my thoughts have changed recently. NFLD's major focus was for its blood substitute in trauma applications but Baxter beat them to the Phase III trial and is counting on a mortality endpoint for their trial. NFLD is only counting on a reduction in the use of allogeneic blood; don't understand why they can't count on the same endpoint! Anyways, Baxter and maybe NFLD should be the first to market. Somatogen will not finish their trials until the end of '98 and thus cannot beat the competition. If this is the case then Somatogen's stock may nose dive after competition beats them to market. This could create a great buying opportunity for a couple of reasons. First of all the market is big enough for several players. Secondly and perhaps greatest of all is that Somatogen doesn't have the supply concerns that NFLD and Baxter have. And last are the second generation hemoglobin compounds that Somatogen is working on; these should have a longer half-life and would certainly have big advantages over the competition. In summary, I think Somatogen is the best bet in the blood substitute field but I wouldn't buy the stock until '98!!!!

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