| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46397.68 | +81.82 | (0.18%) | | Nasdaq | 22660.02 | +68.86 | (0.30%) | | SP 500 | 6688.45 | +27.25 | (0.41%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1453 | Dec 1302 | Vol 1.45 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2264 | Dec 2352 | Vol 8.98 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Health Care, Information Technology, Consumer Staples, Industrials, Materials |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Utilities |
Moving the Market
Weaker-than expected September Consumer Confidence Index bolsters rate cut expectations
NVIDIA trades to new all-time high, relative weakness across mega-cap names outside of the technology sector
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Modest advance to cap a solid September for equities
30-Sep-25 16:25 ET
Dow +81.82 at 46397.68, Nasdaq +68.86 at 22660.02, S&P +27.25 at 6688.45
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (+0.2%) finished the month and quarter on a modestly positive note by closing near session highs after a choppy session of mixed sector strength.
The healthcare sector (+2.5%) led the seven advancing S&P 500 sectors, rising after President Trump announced that Pfizer (PFE 25.48, +1.62, +6.81%) will lower the prices of its medications in the U.S. and sell some through a new government-run direct-to-consumer site, TrumpRx. Eli Lilly (LLY 762.50, +35.99, +4.95%) also gained on reports it is negotiating to participate, while Merck (MRK 83.92, +5.34, +6.80%), Amgen (AMGN 282.20, +8.23, +3.00%), and other large-cap peers followed higher, lifting the broader sector.
The positive headline catalyst culminated in a strong day for what has been the most underbought sector this year, with today's gains lifting the sector back into positive territory for the year.
The major averages also benefitted from a 0.9% gain in the information technology sector, which unsurprisingly finished as the best-performing sector this quarter with a 13.0% quarter-to-date gain.
NVIDIA (NVDA 186.58, +4.72, +2.60%) traded to a new record high level, while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index finished up 0.9%, capping an impressive 12.3% advance in September.
Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and communication services (-0.5%) incurred modest losses as several of their key mega-cap names traded lower.
The energy sector (-1.1%) was once again the top laggard, with crude oil futures settling today's session $1.11 lower (-1.8%) at $62.37 per barrel. The financials sector (-0.5%) rounds out today's four retreating S&P 500 sectors.
Smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (+0.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1) also underperformed the broader market, despite today's economic data providing a boost to the market's expectations for additional rate cuts this year.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus: 96.0%) from an upwardly revised 97.8 in August, reinforcing expectations for further Fed easing. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 96.7 percent chance of a 25-basis point cut in October (from 89.8% yesterday) and a 77.7 percent chance of another cut in December (from 66.8% yesterday).
Commentary from Fed officials was mixed today. Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson (FOMC voting member) noted downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins (FOMC voting member) said modest easing could be appropriate, but a restrictive stance remains warranted. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (FOMC voting member) said he is not overly concerned about the labor market.
In other macro developments, a government shutdown is still imminent as the funding deadline expires at midnight with no resolution in sight. While the market has been largely unphased by the looming shutdown, it would prevent the release of several key economic data reports, which could further complicate the market's monetary policy expectations.
For now, the market remains almost certain of additional easing this year, providing another tailwind for equities in what was a surprisingly strong September that saw the S&P 500 (+3.5% month-to-date), Nasdaq Composite (+5.6% month-to-date), and DJIA (+1.9% month-to-date) all capture decent month-to-date gains.
U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday on a mixed note, as 10s and 30s recorded modest losses while shorter tenors finished in the green. The 2-year note yield settled down 3 basis points to 3.60% (-2 basis points in September) and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.15% (-8 basis points in September).
- Nasdaq Composite: +17.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: +9.3% YTD
- DJIA: +9.1% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.6% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.2 in September (Briefing.com consensus 96.0) from an upwardly revised 97.8 (from 97.4) in August. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 99.2.
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers felt much less positive about business conditions, with thoughts about job availability hitting multi-year lows. That consideration will underpin the market's thinking that another rate cut is at least coming at the October FOMC meeting.
- The Chicago PMI hit 40.6 in September (Briefing.com consensus 41.0), down from 41.5 in August.
- The FHFA Housing Price Index was down 0.1% month-over-month in July after decreasing 0.2% in June.
- The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 1.9% year-over-year in July (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%), down from a revised 2.2% (from 2.1%) in June.
- Job openings increased to 7.227 million in August from a revised 7.208 million (from 7.181 million) in July.
Major averages on track for solid month-to-date gains
30-Sep-25 15:25 ET
Dow +42.51 at 46358.37, Nasdaq +19.40 at 22610.56, S&P +17.46 at 6678.66
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (+0.1%) remain near their flatlines as the market enters the final half hour of the session, month, and quarter.
While September has been a historically slow month for equities, the major averages are set to close with decent month-to-date gains, buoyed by strength in mega-cap names and an 11.7% advance in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.
Though the gains within the major averages are slight, they reflect today's session highs, as the market looks to end the month on a positive note.
Health care sector moves higher as TrumpRx adds potential names
30-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow -16.49 at 46299.37, Nasdaq -2.25 at 22588.91, S&P +8.18 at 6669.38
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (flat) continue to trade near their flatlines as sector strength remains an almost even split.
The health care sector (+2.4%) has steadily expanded upon its early gain following President Trump's announcement that Pfizer (PFE 25.32, +1.46, +6.14%) will lower the prices of its medications in the U.S.
The president also announced that Pfizer will sell some of its medications on a new direct-to-consumer website run by the federal government called TrumpRx.
A White House official has stated that Eli Lilly (LLY 763.61, +37.10, +5.11%) is in negotiations to join the site, sending the stock higher.
S&P 500 edges higher as Danaher rallies, while Albemarle, Capital One, and MGM weigh on index
30-Sep-25 14:25 ET
Dow -60.62 at 46255.24, Nasdaq -10.92 at 22580.24, S&P +2.42 at 6663.62
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.04%) is in first place on Tuesday afternoon, up about 2 points amid a recent rally into positive territory.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Albemarle (ALB 79.61, -7.27, -8.37%), Capital One (COF 210.64, -12.96, -5.80%), and MGM Resorts (MGM 34.34, -2.19, -6.00%) pepper the bottom of the standings. ALB slides as Chinese approvals for two major lithium miners signal a restart of supply from Yichun, adding to global oversupply concerns and pressuring lithium prices, while COF falls amid press releases from Amazon (AMZN 219.04, -3.13, -1.41%) today whereby the e-commerce giant announced new DTC buying options for more products.
Meanwhile, Danaher (DHR 195.92, +9.86, +5.30%) is outperforming despite a dearth of corporate news.
Gold rises on safe-haven demand as shutdown fears, softer dollar weigh on markets
30-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -104.43 at 46211.43, Nasdaq -41.23 at 22549.93, S&P -6.18 at 6655.02
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.18%) is now in second place on Tuesday afternoon, down about 41 points.
Gold futures settled $20.50 higher (+0.5%) at $3,875.80/oz, as safe-haven demand grew amid U.S. government shutdown fears, a softer dollar, and expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down now about -0.2% to $97.73.
Lamb Weston Pops on EPS Beat, Reaffirms FY26 Targets But Stock Still Well Off Highs (LW)
Lamb Weston is serving up solid gains after a strong Q1 (Aug) earnings report. The frozen potato giant — best known for supplying French fries to restaurants globally — beat EPS expectations for the second straight quarter, while revenue of $1.66 bln (+0.3% yr/yr) came in roughly in line. The company reaffirmed its FY26 targets, reinforcing confidence in its long-term growth strategy.
- Global fry demand remains robust, with fries featured on 44% of global menus and cited as one of the most profitable restaurant items.
- LW is realigning its sales teams to prioritize key markets and is expanding North American reach by supplementing its direct sales force with brokers.
- The company secured multiple new global wins, growing share in away-from-home categories like convenience stores and QSRs (Quick Service Restaurants).
- Global fry volume continues to outpace total food growth since 2019, especially in developing markets.
Industry Trends: Restaurant traffic remains mixed. QSR chicken is growing, but QSR hamburger traffic declined low single digits and slipped again in August. International markets are uneven — UK traffic fell 4%. Still, value-driven promotions and LTOs (limited-time offers) are helping stabilize demand.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Lamb Weston's consistent execution and global fry demand tailwinds are good to see despite a sluggish macro backdrop. While overall restaurant traffic is tepid, fries continue to punch above their weight as a high-margin staple. LW's channel expansion, QSR wins, and reaffirmed long-term targets suggest operational momentum is building. The muted top-line growth tempers the excitement, but the bottom-line beat and strategic wins were good to see. The stock has been weak for much of the past year as it seems investors are waiting for restaurant traffic to improve.
Jefferies posts record advisory revenue on revived M&A and IPO markets, but stock still slips (JEF)
Jefferies (JEF) delivered stronger-than-expected 3Q25 results, with EPS and revenue both exceeding consensus on the back of record Advisory revenue and robust performance in Equities trading. However, despite the upside surprise, shares are trading lower, likely due to a combination of profit-taking, rate volatility, and broader macro-related concerns.
- Investment Banking net revenue from Advisory, Equity underwriting, and Debt underwriting climbed 17% yr/yr to $1.09 bln.
- Advisory revenue rose 11% yr/yr to $656 mln, marking JEFs’ best quarter ever as larger M&A transactions across multiple sectors fueled record performance.
- Equity underwriting increased 21% to $181.2 mln, benefiting from a revitalized IPO market.
- Within Capital Markets, Equity net revenue surged 26% to $486.7 mln on stronger global volumes, particularly in U.S. and European equities, offsetting an 18% decline in Fixed income.
- Management commentary was upbeat, with President Brian Friedman noting that a resilient economy, easing interest rates, and steady business confidence are supportive of continued M&A activity.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
JEFs’ record-setting quarter underscores the resilience of the investment banking cycle, particularly within Advisory and Equity markets, and provides a bullish signal for peers Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) ahead of their October reports. The stock’s muted reaction highlights investor caution, with macro uncertainty and rate volatility still looming over the sector. That said, JEFs’ strong deal pipeline and constructive outlook suggest continued momentum, though broader market conditions will dictate whether these gains are sustainable.
Paychex Falls to 52-Week Low After Q1 Results Despite EPS Beat; Organic Growth Under Scrutiny (PAYX)
Paychex (PAYX) is trading sharply lower today after reporting its Q1 (Aug) results this morning, hitting a new 52-week low. The human capital management company delivered modest EPS upside, which has been a typical result over the last several quarters, while revenue increased 16.8% to $1.54 bln, roughly in-line with consensus estimates and prior guidance.
- Management Solutions revenue grew 21% yr/yr to $1.2 bln, with organic growth of ~4% reflecting improved pricing and product penetration. Paycor drove most of the uplift, underscoring its role as the primary growth engine.
- PEO & Insurance Solutions rose 3% yr/yr to $329 mln, slightly softer than Q4, though bookings were solid and management remains bullish on long-term demand given PEO's scale and retention advantages.
- Management noted improved policy clarity (tax, tariffs, inflation, rate cuts), which it expects will support business confidence and unlock investment and hiring from SMBs that had been on the sidelines.
- Cross-selling into Paycor's ~50k clients remains a key growth lever, with early wins such as a large ASO/PEO deal reinforcing synergy potential.
- Revenue outlook was reaffirmed (16.5-18.5% growth), but EPS growth was raised to 9-11% (from 8.5-10.5%), with revenue acceleration expected in the back half as PEO headwinds ease.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The in-line print and modest EPS upside weren't enough to lift sentiment, as organic growth and PEO trends remain muted. Paycor continues to drive most of the top-line momentum, but investors are looking for steadier improvement in legacy businesses. Management's upbeat macro outlook and early cross-sell success are positives, yet execution on organic acceleration will be key to regaining investor confidence.
Progress Software Delivers Solid EPS Beat, Stock Gains Despite Modest Organic ARR Growth (PRGS)
Progress Software is trading higher after a strong Q3 (Aug) earnings report. The company — which provides application development and infrastructure software with a focus on automation and AI — delivered its eighth consecutive double-digit EPS beat.
- Revenue rose 39.8% yr/yr to $249.8 mln, well above guidance, with broad-based strength across products and geographies.
- FY25 guidance was raised, though most of the increase stemmed from Q3 outperformance, implying a muted Q4 outlook.
- Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) — a key performance metric — grew 47% yr/yr in constant currency to $849 mln.
- Excluding the ShareFile acquisition, pro forma ARR growth was just 3%, highlighting more modest organic expansion.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
PRGS delivered better-than-expected results across key metrics, helping lift sentiment after shares came under pressure since July. That said, underlying organic growth was underwhelming, and the guidance raise was largely a function of the Q3 beat — not accelerating momentum into Q4. While this quarter shows durability in PRGS's installed base and solid execution, the muted pro forma ARR growth keeps the longer-term growth story in question. Still, with weak sentiment largely priced in, the report is being received as a welcome positive.
CoreWeave soars as company lands blockbuster $14.2 bln deal with Meta Platforms (CRWV)
CoreWeave (CRWV) announced that Meta Platforms (META) has entered into a new order form under their existing agreement, significantly expanding META’s access to CRWV’s cloud computing capacity. META has initially agreed to pay CRWV up to $14.2 bln through December 14, 2031, with the option to materially expand its commitment through 2032 for additional GPU cloud resources.
- CRWV will provide META access to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest GB300 systems, a clear positive for NVDA given its close supplier relationship with CRWV.
- This deal follows closely after OpenAI expanded its contract with CRWV by $6.5 bln, bringing that total to $22.4 bln and fueling further momentum for the company.
- The expanded contract will boost CRWV’s backlog above the $30.1 bln reported at the end of 2Q25, underscoring its rapidly growing pipeline.
- Importantly, META’s expanded commitment also helps to reduce customer concentration risk, as Microsoft (MSFT) has historically accounted for roughly 70% of CRWV’s total revenue.
- These expanded customer wins help justify CRWV’s lofty valuation, with shares trading at a 1-year forward P/S of about 5.7x.
- However, profitability remains a sticking point as CRWV’s adjusted net loss widened to $(130.8) mln in 2Q25 from just $(5.1) mln a year earlier, pressured by heavy infrastructure spending, including a new 250 MW data center in New Jersey slated for 2026.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The META deal is another validation of CRWV’s role as a critical GPU cloud provider, while also reinforcing NVDA’s positioning in the AI supply chain. Momentum is undeniable as OpenAI and META deepen their commitments, strengthening the case for CRWV’s premium valuation. Still, the company remains unprofitable, and its heavy capex needs raise execution risks. Overall, though, we see the META deal as a strong strategic win that eases customer concentration concerns and amplifies its growth potential.
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