From Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures fell toward $62 per barrel on Wednesday, the lowest in over three weeks, extending a three-day slide as OPEC+ weighs faster supply hikes. The group meets Sunday to discuss boosting output by 500,000 barrels per day per month over three months, even as major forecasters warn the market is already oversupplied. The IEA projects record surpluses next year, while TotalEnergies flagged a Q1 glut. Adding to pressure, US production hit a record 13.6 million barrels a day in July. Still, traders doubt the full OPEC+ increase will materialize, with Saudi Arabia cautious about capacity limits. In the meantime, Russia’s limited diesel export ban and extended gasoline restrictions offered only marginal support, as measures were expected and narrowly targeted.
US natural gas futures rose to $3.37/MMBtu, a ten-week high, driven by lower production. Output in the Lower 48 eased to 107.4 bcfd so far in September from a record 108.3 bcfd in August. The earlier surge in supply fueled large storage injections, leaving inventories 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher than last year. On the demand side, forecasts point to above-normal warmth stretching into mid October, while LNG feedgas flows averaged 15.7 bcfd, slightly below August levels. Over the longer term, a wave of new projects will boost global LNG capacity by 60% by 2030, half of it from the US. That raises the risk of oversupply and lower prices in Asia and Europe, potentially pressuring US exporters. Still, strong domestic demand from slower renewable deployment and rising AI-driven power needs could provide support for prices at home.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group |
