| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46440.89 | +43.21 | (0.09%) | | Nasdaq | 22755.17 | +95.15 | (0.42%) | | SP 500 | 6711.19 | +22.74 | (0.34%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1609 | Dec 1146 | Vol 1.30 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2623 | Dec 1994 | Vol 10.12 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Health Care, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Energy |
Moving the Market
U.S. government shutdown in effect, Senate set to vote on resolution again today
September ADP Employment Report shows labor market weakness, boosts odds of further rate cuts this year
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S&P 500 notches record highs as market overlooks government shutdown
01-Oct-25 16:25 ET
Dow +43.21 at 46440.89, Nasdaq +95.15 at 22755.17, S&P +22.74 at 6711.19
[BRIEFING.COM] After some early shakiness, the stock market proved to be largely unaffected by the ongoing government shutdown, with today's gains sending the S&P 500 (+0.3%) to new record highs (and past the 6,700 mark), while the DJIA (+0.1%) notched a record closing high, and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) led the cohort.
Investors steadily bought back the broad-based opening retreat, unfazed by the Senate failing to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government early this afternoon. The senate will leave tomorrow for the Yom Kippur holiday, which means the next votes on a resolution will be Friday and over the weekend.
While today's resilience suggests the ongoing shutdown will have little effect on the stock market, it will delay the release of the Employment Situation Report, which was set to be released on Friday. Some analysts have expressed concerns that this could murky the market's expectations of further rate cuts from the Fed this year, though today's data reinforced a dovish tone ahead of the blackout.
The September ADP Payrolls report showed a decline of 32k private-sector jobs (Briefing.com consensus: 40k). In response, the CME FedWatch tool now prices a 100% chance of at least a 25-basis-point cut at the October FOMC meeting (up from 96.7% yesterday) and an 87.8% chance of another cut in December (up from 77.3% yesterday).
Stocks steadily traded higher throughout the day, with advancers outpacing decliners by a roughly 8-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 4-to-3 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Only four S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, though they were substantial enough to lift the major averages.
The health care sector (+3.0%) saw another day of impressive gains following yesterday's headline catalyst. Pfizer (PFE 27.23, +1.76, +6.89%) and peers continued to rise after yesterday's announcement of TrumpRx, a government-run platform to lower drug costs. Under the initiative, Pfizer will reduce Medicaid prices and invest $70 billion in U.S. R&D in exchange for a three-year tariff reprieve.
Eli Lilly (LLY 825.71, +62.71, +8.22%), Thermo Fisher (TMO 531.07, +46.05, +9.49%), and Biogen (BIIB 154.22, +14.14, +10.09%) were just a few of several stocks in the sector to close with gains approaching double digits.
The information technology sector (+0.7%) also captured a nice gain as strength in its chipmaker components saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index advance 2.1%.
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) closed similarly, supported by Tesla's (TSLA 459.41, +14.69, +3.30%) rise ahead of what is expected to be an impressive Q3 delivery report tomorrow and Nike's (NKE 74.24, +4.50, +6.46%) strength following its earnings report.
Today's biggest decliners included the materials sector (-1.2%), weighed down by Corteva (CTVA 61.47, -6.16, -9.11%) announcing a planned split into two companies, while the financials sector (-0.9%) saw weakness in its major banking names, and the communication services sector (-0.8%) slipped as most of its components traded lower.
Outside of the S&P 500, smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%) captured gains similar to that of their larger-cap peers.
U.S. Treasuries rallied on Wednesday with leadership from the front end after today's weak ADP Employment Change report for September invited more questions about the present state of the labor market. The 2-year note yield settled down six basis points to 3.54%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.11%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +17.8% YTD
- S&P 500: +14.1% YTD
- Russell 2000: +9.7% YTD
- DJIA: +9.2% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.9% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -12.7%; Prior 0.6%
- September ADP Employment Change -32K (Briefing.com consensus 40K); Prior was revised to -3K from 54K
- September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.0; Prior 52.0
- September ISM Manufacturing Index 49.1% vs Briefing.com consensus of 49.2%; Prior 48.7%
- The key takeaway from the report is that the manufacturing sector remains in a state of contraction, with new order activity under pressure from tariff costs and uncertainty.
S&P 500 notches fresh record high amid government shutdown
01-Oct-25 15:30 ET
Dow +72.56 at 46470.24, Nasdaq +94.78 at 22754.80, S&P +24.02 at 6712.47
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4) established a new all-time high this afternoon, while the DJIA (+0.2%) currently trades above its record closing high, and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) sits just a few points beneath its own record close.
Despite a brief early sell-off this morning, the market has been largely resilient to the ongoing government shutdown today.
The Senate failed to pass a resolution to fund the government earlier today, and with tomorrow's Yom Kippur holiday, the next vote on a continuing resolution to fund the government will be Friday and over the weekend.
Mega-cap names push major averages to session highs
01-Oct-25 15:00 ET
Dow +111.51 at 46509.19, Nasdaq +110.29 at 22770.31, S&P +27.53 at 6715.98
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (+0.2%) are charting new session highs as the market enters the final hour of trading.
Mega-cap names have trended steadily higher throughout the session, sending the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 0.6% higher after facing a loss this morning.
Meta Platforms (META 719.04, -15.34, -2.09%) still lags and in turn weighs on the communication services sector, but Tesla (TSLA 459.97, +15.25, +3.43%), Amazon (AMZN 221.97, +2.40, +1.09%), Alphabet (GOOG 246.21, +2.66, +1.09%), and others are making healthy contributions to the index level advance.
S&P 500 climbs on biotech and chip strength; TMO, MU, REGN lead while Gartner slides
01-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow +64.65 at 46462.33, Nasdaq +104.28 at 22764.30, S&P +24.83 at 6713.28
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.37%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, up about 25 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Thermo Fisher (TMO 528.53, +43.51, +8.97%), Micron (MU 179.33, +12.01, +7.18%), and Regeneron Pharma (REGN 606.84, +44.57, +7.93%) dot the top of the standings. TMO rallies on a sector-wide biotech surge sparked by a favorable U.S. drug-pricing deal, boosted further by its new AstraZeneca (AZN 84.15, +7.43, +9.68%) R&D partnership, upcoming bioanalytical lab launch, and strong institutional buying interest, while MU's ship rises with the broader technology/semi tide, and REGN gets a boost from the view that the Pfizer (PFE 27.33, +1.85, +7.26%)/Trump admin drug pricing deal is a relief for biotechs, easing fears of harsher industry measures.
Meanwhile, Gartner (IT 244.57, -18.30, -6.96%) slumps despite a dearth of corporate news.
Gold rises on safe-haven demand as shutdown risks cloud Fed outlook
01-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow +23.25 at 46420.93, Nasdaq +64.99 at 22725.01, S&P +15.14 at 6703.59
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.29%) is in first place, up about 65 points with about two hours to go on the session.
Gold futures settled $24.30 higher (+0.6%) at $3,897.50/oz, primarily driven by safe-haven demand amid heightened political and macro uncertainty. The immediate catalyst appears to be the U.S. government shutdown, investors are worrying that the funding impasse will delay key economic data (notably the September nonfarm payrolls), which makes the Fed's path more dovish. At the same time, a softer U.S. dollar is aiding bullion's appeal, and weak/hazy economic signals are bolstering expectations of a Fed rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down less than -0.1% to $97.78.
AES near $38 bln buyout by Global Infrastructure Partners amid rising data center power demand (AES)
AES (AES) is reportedly the target of a potential takeover: Financial Times reported that BlackRock (BLK)-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is nearing a roughly $38 bln deal for AES -- a figure that includes the company’s substantial debt load. The possible transaction highlights how surging data-center demand (driven by AI) is pushing institutional investors into power and renewables assets, making AES an attractive buy despite recent operational headwinds.
- AES operates power plants in the U.S. and 13 other countries, serving utilities, industrials, and intermediaries.
- The reported $38 bln valuation includes about $29-$30 bln of debt, implying an equity value near AES’s current market cap.
- Bloomberg reported in July that AES was exploring a sale; shares are up approximately 20% since but remain down by about 2% year-to-date on weak renewables sentiment.
- Surging AI-driven data center demand is fueling investor interest in utilities, making AES a prime target. A deal could put peers like NextEra Energy (NEE), Exelon (EXC), Duke Energy (DUK), and Dominion Energy (D) on the M&A radar.
- AES's results have been weak, with revenue declining yr/yr for nine straight quarters, but growth is expected to accelerate on data-center demand.
- AES is on track to add 3.2 GW of new projects in 2025 and has signed 1.6 GW of PPAs with data center customers since Q1.
- The company targets 19-21% long-term renewables growth, supporting its strategic appeal.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The FT report that GIP is nearing a $38 bln deal for AES crystallizes a central market theme: infrastructure capital is feverishly reallocating toward assets that can supply the AI-era power surge. For AES, that dynamic overlays an otherwise bumpy operational record -- recent revenue softness and policy-driven sentiment have weighed on the stock and amplified the strategic appeal of a buyout at scale. A purchaser willing to assume AES’s heavy debt load could extract value from the company’s accelerating renewables backlog and data-center PPAs, but risks remain: notably execution on construction, margin pressure from policy/tariff shifts, and geographic/regulatory complexity across 14 countries. If a GIP-led deal completes, it could re-ignite M&A interest across the utility space.
Conagra Higher on Return to EPS Upside; Initiatives Showing Progress but Sustainability is Key (CAG)
Conagra Brands (CAG) is moving higher today after reporting its Q1 (Aug) results this morning. The food giant bounced back nicely to report EPS upside following two consecutive quarters of an EPS miss. Revenue decreased 5.8% yr/yr (-0.6% organically) to $2.63 bln, which was in-line with consensus estimates. The company also reaffirmed FY26 EPS guidance of $1.70-1.85.
- Revenues declined on a 5.1% M&A impact, a 0.6% organic sales decline, and a 0.1% FX headwind. Organic trends improved from -3.5% in Q4, as pricing gains were offset by lower volumes.
- Gross margins are still pressured due to inflation and investments. Adjusted gross margin decreased 153 bps to 24.4%, resulting in a 25.1% decrease in adjusted net income.
- Segment performance was mixed with frozen organic sales up 0.2% (-4.4% in Q4) as volumes improved 0.5% (-2.1% in Q4) and share gains came in meals, vegetables, and chicken.
- Grocery & Snacks organic sales declined 1.0% (-3.3% in Q4) with protein snacks showing strength, but total volumes down 1.6% (flat sequentially).
- Supply chain initiatives supported recovery with service levels restored to 98% and productivity running above plan, aided by tariff mitigation and inventory rebuilds.
- Low-single-digit sales declines expected in Q2, with organic growth expected in the second half as frozen laps supply issues and pricing actions take hold. Total inflation ticked higher to low 7% range.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
CAG's stock is responding positively as management demonstrated progress on supply chain recovery, frozen momentum, and volume stabilization. The improvement in organic trends versus Q4 and restored service levels are encouraging, but investors will be watching whether these gains can be sustained. Inflation, tariffs, and weak consumer sentiment remain meaningful headwinds, making 2H execution important to building confidence in the long-term recovery story.
Acuity Stock Gains on Strong Q4 Results and Resilient FY26 Outlook (AYI)
Acuity Brands is shining after a strong Q4 (Aug) report, highlighted by a large EPS beat and solid FY26 guidance. Revenue rose 17.1% yr/yr to $1.21 bln, roughly in line with expectations, but the real upside came from margin performance and forward guidance.
- The mid-points of FY26 guidance came in ahead of expectations with adjusted EPS of $19.00-20.50 and revenue of $4.7-4.9 bln at the midpoints.
- ABL (Acuity Brands Lighting) revenue grew 1% yr/yr to $962 mln, with operating margin expanding 210 bps yr/yr to 20.1%, driven by cost reductions and productivity gains.
- AIS (Acuity Intelligent Spaces) revenue jumped to $255 mln, up $171 mln, driven by the QSC acquisition. QSC grew 15% yr/yr; Atrius and Distech combined rose 13%.
- The company cited resilience in ABL despite economic uncertainty, aided by share gains, pricing actions, and supply chain optimization to mitigate tariff impact.
- Acuity emphasized its ability to operate efficiently in a tepid macro environment, citing aggressive margin management and differentiated tech in AIS.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Investors appear encouraged by Acuity's solid execution and better-than-feared FY26 guidance in a tough macro backdrop. Despite ongoing tariff pressures and economic headwinds, the company is expanding margins, taking share, and executing well in both legacy and newly acquired businesses. While not flashy, Acuity is proving it can grind out growth and profitability—attributes that resonate in this type of market.
NIKE's 'Win Now' strategy gains more traction among wholesale partners, but headwinds persist (NKE)
NIKE (NKE) exceeded expectations in 1Q26, delivering both EPS and revenue upside. Revenue grew +1% yr/yr, better than its forecast for a mid-single-digit decline, as North American wholesale demand led the way (North America revenue +4%, wholesale +7%). Gross margin also beat, falling 320 bps to 42.2%, versus guidance for a 350-425 bps drop. The company attributed the upside to momentum from its “Win Now” strategy, which is beginning to show traction through innovation initiatives (Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18, NikeSKIMS) and stronger wholesale partnerships.
- Inventories declined 2% yr/yr, but NIKE Digital traffic fell by double digits as the company transitions to a full-price strategy.
- China revenue declined 10% yr/yr, with CEO Hill citing structural challenges and weak seasonal sell-through.
- Tariff headwinds worsened: NKE now expects a $1.5 bln impact (vs. $1.0 bln prior), pressuring FY26 gross margin by 1.2 percentage points.
- Q2 revenue is expected to decline low-single-digits, suggesting a sluggish holiday season.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
NKE’s Q1 results provided some much-needed reassurance that its “Win Now” turnaround is gaining momentum, especially in North America wholesale, where partners have embraced new product launches. Still, the company is far from a clean recovery story. Tariff headwinds, weak consumer demand in China, and the traffic declines in NIKE Digital underscore that structural challenges remain. Management’s cautious Q2 outlook -- calling for another revenue decline -- highlights that the holiday season is unlikely to be a breakout period. While we see early signs of progress, the stock’s near-term upside is capped by macro pressures and execution risk in China and digital. NKE likely needs to deliver a few more quarters of consistent improvement before investor sentiment truly turns in its favor.
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