The defeat of America
Posted on : 2025-03-25 17:57 KST Modified on : 2025-03-25 17:57 KST
Trump is not a cause but a symptom
US President Donald Trump ostensibly launched his global tariff campaign to “make America great again.” But according to French historian Emmanuel Todd, Trump’s actions are better explained in terms of the US’ humiliating defeat to China and Russia.
In his 1976 book “The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere,” Todd accurately predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse 15 years later using longitudinal statistical data such as infant mortality rates.
Todd’s book “The Defeat of the West” (“La Defaite de l’Occident” in the original French), published in January 2024, contains arguments that will be shocking for Koreans who have long taken American hegemony for granted.
The best physical manifestation of America’s defeat is the war in Ukraine. After the war began in late February 2022, the US and the EU made a carefully coordinated response.
Considering that Russia’s economy comes to around 3.3% of the West (US, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea), the calculation was that heavy sanctions against Russia coupled with support for Ukraine would quickly lead to Russia raising the white flag.
The reality was different. Russia evaded sanctions with the help of China, India and the “Global South,” avoiding the economic collapse the West hoped for. There were several ups and downs, but the war has progressed in Russia’s favor, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected Trump’s deal involving a one-month ceasefire.
Why did this happen? Todd looks beyond the war and to the “fundamental changes” that have been occurring within American society. The West underestimated Russia and ignored the hollowing out of the American economy. A robust manufacturing base is critical to winning a war. Todd said he was shocked when he saw that the US couldn’t supply shells or anything to Ukraine with confidence. Russia currently produces around 250,000 shells a month, but the US has set its annual “objective” for this year at 100,000. As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2% of American college graduates — in Russia, it’s over three times that, at 23.4%.
Todd says that while Trump is attempting to revive the American manufacturing sector, it will be impossible. Drunk on the dominance of the dollar, the US has had no need to accumulate foreign currency for the sake of imports. The country’s faith-based social ethics which were part of what made American society robust during its golden era, have now collapsed. It’s now an empty country full of demoralized nihilists. The Trump factor is not a cause but a symptom.
By Gil Yun-hyung, editorial writer
english.hani.co.kr
It sounds like the Pentagon's assessment and the domestic deployment of forces appears to foreshadow some difficult political choices and civil upheaval.
politico.com |
