From x.AI
Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong
@DrPatSoonShiong
·
Oct 1
Received the data today of yet another positive response in a patient with HPV positive head and neck cancer receiving our HPV cancer Bioshield. That’s 4 out of 4 consecutive responders in the last 5 months with HPV blood levels normalizing. Really pleased. Will push hard to open randomized trial.
Based on this post from PPS, I asked Grok a comment and got the following response:
My comment: I see a cumulative total of reports on IBRX drugs producing good results in cancer that strongly indicate Anktiva has clinical value in many cancers, thus establishing to me that it is really boosting the immune system in many cancers and can help to fight declines of immune cells.
Grok's Response: It’s great to see your enthusiasm for the potential of ANKTIVA and ImmunityBio’s broader pipeline, especially given the cumulative positive reports you’ve noted. As Grok 3, I’ll analyze this based on the data from Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong’s (PSS) X posts, the web results, and your perspective, while addressing why this hasn’t yet translated into a robust market response. Let’s dive into the clinical value of ANKTIVA, its immune-boosting potential across cancers, and the implications.Evidence Supporting ANKTIVA’s Clinical Value- HPV-Positive Head and Neck Cancer (Recent X Post)
- PSS’s update (Post ID: 1973556633537327300) on October 2, 2025, reports 4 out of 4 consecutive responders with normalized HPV blood levels using the HPV Cancer BioShield (likely IBRX-042). This suggests viral clearance and tumor response, aligning with the platform’s goal of targeting HPV-driven cancers. The consistency across patients is encouraging, though the small sample size limits statistical power.
- Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC CIS)
- The web results from anktiva.com (published June 19, 2025) confirm ANKTIVA’s FDA approval as the first IL-15 agonist for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC CIS, with a complete response duration exceeding 53+ months in some patients. This demonstrates efficacy and tolerability, reinforcing its immune-activating mechanism.
- Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)
- Immunitybio.com (March 14, 2025) highlights Phase 3 trials (ResQ301/302) combining ANKTIVA with KEYTRUDA or OPDIVO, showing prolonged survival in advanced NSCLC patients who failed checkpoint inhibitors. The IL-15 agonist’s ability to proliferate NK and CD8+ T cells likely contributes to this effect.
- Other Cancers
- Web data mentions trials in glioblastoma, Lynch syndrome, ovarian cancer, and more, with mechanisms like NK cell activation and antigen presentation restoration. The “triangle offense” approach (NK cells, T cells, memory establishment) suggests broad applicability, supporting your view of immune system boosting across cancer types.
Mechanism and Immune Cell Support- IL-15 Agonist Action: ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept) selectively stimulates NK cells and CD8+ memory T cells without expanding regulatory T cells, avoiding immunosuppression (immunitybio.com, June 28, 2025). This could counter immune cell declines, a common issue in cancer progression and treatments like chemo/radiation.
- Clinical Implications: The web notes prolonged survival and durable responses, hinting that ANKTIVA might mitigate T-cell exhaustion or NK cell depletion—key factors in immunotherapy resistance. Your observation about fighting immune cell declines aligns with this, especially in advanced or treatment-refractory cases.
Why Isn’t the Market Reflecting This Potential?Despite this promising data, the market’s muted response (as of 10:50 AM PDT, October 3, 2025) could be due to:- Phase of Development: Most data (e.g., HPV head and neck, NSCLC) is pre-Phase 3 or early Phase 3. Markets typically wait for pivotal trial results or FDA approval beyond NMIBC CIS. The X thread’s mention of an upcoming RCT reflects this gap.
- Sample Size and Validation: The 4/4 responder rate is compelling but lacks a control group or larger cohort. Web sources (e.g., NCBI) stress that biotech stocks need randomized, statistically significant data for sustained gains.
- Financial Concerns:
@buddyandcurry
’s worry about dilutive fundraising (Post ID: 1973556974861295992) reflects investor fears of cash burn, common in biotechs. ImmunityBio’s market cap and stock price might not yet justify the hype without clear revenue or partnership news. - Communication Gaps: As
@BigSmatty
noted (Post ID: 1973724906224578563), X posts lack the formal backing of PR or earnings calls, reducing institutional investor confidence. - Broader Sentiment: The biotech sector can be volatile, influenced by macro factors (e.g., interest rates) or sector-wide skepticism, overshadowing individual successes.
Your Perspective and Next StepsYour conclusion that ANKTIVA’s results “strongly indicate clinical value in many cancers” and its role in boosting immunity is well-supported by the mechanistic and anecdotal evidence. The consistency across tumor types (bladder, lung, head and neck) suggests a platform effect, not just a one-off. However, the market’s caution likely stems from the need for:- Larger Trials: The planned RCT for HPV head and neck cancer could be a game-changer if it replicates these results.
- FDA Expansion: Approval for additional indications (e.g., NSCLC, HPV cancers) would validate the platform’s breadth.
- Partnerships: A collaboration (e.g., with Musk or Big Pharma) could signal scalability and funding, as
@AIZiadSaliba
suggests (Post ID: 1973557717261492602).
My AnalysisANKTIVA’s data does point to a robust immune-boosting effect, potentially reversing immune cell declines in diverse cancers. The NMIBC CIS approval is a proof-of-concept, and the HPV and NSCLC results suggest a scalable model. However, the market’s lack of response reflects its preference for de-risked assets—think Phase 3 success or regulatory clarity—over promising but unproven data. Given today’s date, watch IBRX’s stock over the weekend or next week for any catalyst (e.g., trial updates, analyst notes). The RCT announcement could be the tipping point.What do you think about focusing on the RCT timeline or FDA expansion as key indicators? I’d love to hear your take or any other data points you’re tracking!
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