Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46824.79 | +305.28 | (0.66%) | | Nasdaq | 22781.27 | -62.79 | (-0.27%) | | SP 500 | 6722.12 | +6.78 | (0.10%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1674 | Dec 995 | Vol 517.90 mln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2578 | Dec 1725 | Vol 9.00 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Financials, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate, Energy |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
Major averages notch fresh record highs as market continues to overlook government shutdown
Weakness among mega-cap and tech names limiting gains at the index level
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Mega-caps lower just before the close
03-Oct-25 15:25 ET
Dow +305.28 at 46824.79, Nasdaq -62.79 at 22781.27, S&P +6.78 at 6722.12
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages sit in a mixed fashion just before the close, with mega-cap weakness weighing against what has been broad strength elsewhere.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is now down 0.4%, following the information technology sector (-0.3%) into negative territory.
In macro news, the Senate has failed to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government, though this was largely anticipated and did not have a noticeable effect on the major averages.
Technology sector lags, sends Nasdaq lower
03-Oct-25 14:55 ET
Dow +309.22 at 46828.73, Nasdaq -71.08 at 22772.98, S&P +5.23 at 6720.57
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.7%) now sit mixed this afternoon as the information technology sector (-0.2%) has slipped beneath its flatline.
In addition to Palantir Technologies' (PLTR 174.70, -12.35, -6.60%) retreat, NVIDIA (NVDA 187.48, -1.40, -0.74%) also sees some profit-taking after reaching record highs multiple times throughout the week.
Weakness in chipmaker names now has the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 0.6% after an earlier gain.
S&P 500 edges higher as Zebra Tech, eBay, and ADM lead; Palantir slides on Army security concerns
03-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow +349.67 at 46869.18, Nasdaq -43.76 at 22800.30, S&P +12.70 at 6728.04
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.19%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, up about 12 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Zebra Tech (ZBRA 309.06, +13.21, +4.47%), eBay (EBAY 91.71, +3.31, +3.74%), and ADM (ADM 61.08, +1.97, +3.33%) dot the top of the standings despite a dearth of corporate news.
Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies (PLTR 173.37, -13.68, -7.31%) is today's top laggard after a Reuters report said the U.S. Army flagged "fundamental security" flaws in a key battlefield communications program involving the company, raising concerns about its defense contracts.
Gold futures climb 1.1% to $3,909, eyeing $4,000 on safe-haven demand and Fed cut bets
03-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow +289.54 at 46809.05, Nasdaq -118.08 at 22725.98, S&P -3.11 at 6712.23
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.52%) is in last place, down more than 118 points on Friday afternoon.
Gold futures settled $40.80 higher (+1.1%) at $3,908.90/oz, gaining +2.6% for the week as investors bought into safe-haven assets amid the U.S. government shutdown and political uncertainty. Support also came from elevated expectations of Fed rate cuts, with some analysts now eyeing a potential move above $4,000.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.2% to $97.72.
Dow leads Friday gains; CAT, TRV, V shine while NKE lags, week poised to end +1.5%
03-Oct-25 13:30 ET
Dow +441.99 at 46961.50, Nasdaq -35.96 at 22808.10, S&P +15.00 at 6730.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.95%) is in first place on Friday afternoon, a hair off session highs after reports came in that a large put order had been made in the options market, possibly positioning for a downside move in the market.
A look inside the DJIA shows that Caterpillar (CAT 502.54, +11.97, +2.44%), Travelers (TRV 285.97, +5.93, +2.12%), and Visa (V 352.27, +6.32, +1.83%) hold solid gains.
Meanwhile, Nike (NKE 72.87, -1.70, -2.28%) is underperforming.
The DJIA is poised to end the week +1.54% higher.
Elsewhere, at the top of the hour, Baker Hughes (BKR 48.84, +0.44, +0.91%) announced a weekly U.S. rotary rig count of 549, flat w/w and -36 yr/yr.
Rumble integrates USAT wallet and AI tools, expanding revenue streams (RUM)
Rumble (RUM) is surging after Tether announced that it will launch its new U.S.-regulated stablecoin, USAT, on RUM’s video platform. The move builds on Tether’s $775 mln investment in 2024, which gave it a 48% stake in RUM, and provides a clear financial and strategic pathway for RUM to expand beyond digital media into fintech.
- Tether’s launch of USAT on RUM gives the platform exclusive access to distribute a fully dollar-backed, regulated stablecoin in the U.S., creating a new monetization stream.
- RUM plans to integrate a crypto wallet that supports USAT by year-end, potentially unlocking payment, tipping, and subscription models for its 50+ mln MAUs.
- USAT is positioned to compete with Circle's (CRCL) USDC and PayPal’s (PYPL) PYUSD, allowing Tether to leverage RUM’s predominantly U.S.-based audience as an on-ramp to the American crypto market, where its existing USDT token faces greater regulatory hurdles.
- The partnership provides RUM with a potential financial uplift from transaction fees, higher user engagement, and greater creator monetization opportunities.
- Separately, RUM announced a partnership with Perplexity AI to integrate AI-powered discovery tools, which should improve content search, engagement, and advertising efficiency.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
RUM’s integration with Tether’s USAT represents a high-upside catalyst that goes beyond traditional video ad revenues, opening a path into payments and digital asset services. While regulatory execution and user adoption will be key, RUM’s large U.S. user base makes it an attractive launchpad for USAT, which could materially differentiate the platform from rivals like YouTube. Combined with the Perplexity partnership, which should enhance discoverability and user engagement, RUM is positioning itself as both a media and fintech hybrid. This dual strategy could warrant a valuation re-rating if execution proves successful, though near-term volatility is likely given the ambitious pivot.
Cracker Barrel enhances leadership structure, targets traffic recovery after failed rebrand (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) announced a series of leadership and organizational changes last night as it works to recover from a troubled rebrand in late August that weighed heavily on the stock, and restaurant traffic.
- Doug Hisel was promoted to SVP, Store Operations, while Heather Hager (Retail & Design) and Heather Gammon (Demand Planning) have expanded responsibilities under the new structure.
- Thomas Yun is rejoining as VP, Menu Strategy & Innovation, a particularly important role for CBRL given his past success with items like Chicken & Rice and Pot Roast.
- The company said it will no longer work with the consultancy that advised on its prior brand refresh.
- In its Q4 (Jul) report, management noted that before the logo change, traffic was down just 1%, but afterward it dropped 8%. Q1 (Oct) traffic is projected to decline another 7-8%, reflecting continued brand fallout.
- The restructuring reduces layers in the organization and narrows the focus on food and guest experience in an effort to restore traffic.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
These moves represent a step in the right direction for CBRL. That said, the company had warned that near-term conditions would remain difficult following its failed rebrand, and traffic trends confirm those headwinds. With the stock still well below prior highs, investors will want to see tangible improvement before sentiment turns, but the sharper focus on menu and guest experience is an encouraging sign.
Applied Materials warns of revenue hit from BIS affiliate rule, but AI demand focal point (AMAT)
Applied Materials (AMAT) flagged a modest revenue hit from the Commerce Department’s new “Affiliates Rule,” estimating an approximate $110 mln impact to 4Q25 revenue and $600 mln to FY26. While the amounts are manageable, the disclosure adds another layer of uncertainty on top of existing China weakness.
- The new BIS Rule expands export restrictions to entities 50%+ owned by companies on the Entity List, requiring licenses for many affiliates previously exempt.
- The estimated impact for Q4 and FY26 is around 2% of total revenue, based on AMAT's Q4 guidance and the FY26 FactSet Consensus estimate.
- AMAT had already guided conservatively, with Q4 revenue of $6.20-$7.20 bln and China’s share expected to fall to 29% from 35% in Q3.
- Peers like KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and ASML (ASML) may also see incremental revenue pressure from the broadened restrictions.
- AMAT shares have rallied by about 40% since early September on AI and DRAM/HBM demand optimism, but export headlines introduce near-term volatility.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The BIS Affiliates Rule is a manageable financial headwind but adds another risk factor to AMAT’s China exposure. The company remains well-positioned for memory-led growth and AI infrastructure spending, yet licensing delays and regulatory uncertainty may temper near-term sentiment. Longer term, the scale of demand in DRAM and HBM should outweigh the regulatory drag, but investors should expect choppier quarterly results as U.S.-China policy friction persists. This makes the stock more attractive on pullbacks rather than at current highs, in our view.
Embraer Q3 Deliveries Inch Higher; FY25 Guidance Reaffirmed Amid Tariff Concerns (ERJ)
Embraer ticked slightly higher after reporting Q3 deliveries, showing modest sequential and yr/yr growth. While not a breakout quarter, investors were reassured by steady trends and a reaffirmation of full-year guidance.
- Q3 deliveries totaled 62 aircraft, up from 61 in Q2 and 59 a year ago.
- Commercial aviation saw 20 deliveries (vs. 19 in Q2, 16 yr/yr), with more than half being the E195-E2 — Embraer's largest commercial jet.
- Executive jet deliveries reached 41 units, up from 38 in Q2 and flat yr/yr. The Phenom 300 remained the standout, with 20 units delivered.
- ERJ reaffirmed FY25 guidance of 77-85 commercial jets and 145-155 executive jets.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Embraer's Q3 results offered just enough to maintain investor confidence but not enough to excite. The reaffirmed FY25 guidance and slight delivery growth were welcome, especially amid ongoing concerns around U.S. tariffs. Still, with 1H25 and Q3 delivery data putting ERJ on pace for the low end of its full-year targets, the muted share price reaction reflects tempered expectations. Also, we have concerns investors may grow cautious heading into FY26 if delivery momentum doesn't pick up.
Berkshire Hathaway makes largest deal since Alleghany, adding steady earnings via OxyChem (BRK.B)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced an all-cash agreement to acquire Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) chemical business, OxyChem, for $9.7 bln, its largest deal since the $11.6 bln purchase of Alleghany in 2022. The transaction expands BRK.B’s relationship with OXY, in which it already owns a 28% equity stake, while also giving OXY a significant balance sheet boost through debt reduction and capital return.
- OxyChem produces chemicals for water treatment, vinyl chloride (plastics), calcium chloride (road treatment), and other industrial products.
- OxyChem generated $213 mln in Q2 pretax earnings, flat yr/yr, supported by strong export demand for caustic soda and PVC.
- The acquisition of OxyChem marks BRK.B’s biggest acquisition in two years, reflecting Buffett’s selective M&A activity amid high valuations.
- The transaction also strengthens BRK.B’s portfolio with a steady, cash-generating industrial business that complements its energy and insurance units.
- OXY will use $6.5 bln for immediate debt repayment, plus $1.5 bln after-tax, cutting interest expense by $350 mln annually.
- Proceeds support OXY’s buybacks, dividend growth, and a post-CrownRock debt target below $15 bln.
- The divestiture refocuses OXY on upstream oil and gas, especially in the Delaware Basin, Midland Basin, and New Barnett. OXY's recent Permian sales raised $950 mln for debt reduction.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
This deal underscores Buffett’s preference for stable, cash-flowing businesses, with OxyChem offering dependable earnings and global demand tailwinds. OXY, meanwhile, gains balance sheet flexibility, enhances capital returns, and sharpens its oil and gas focus. The structure appears mutually beneficial, though BRK.B’s restraint in deal-making highlights its disciplined approach in a pricey market.
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