China's Subway Disaster--From Miracle to Mass Layoffs.
Shanghai. For decades, this city symbolized China’s “miracle.” A showcase of prosperity and the busiest metro system in the country.
But in 2025, the unthinkable happened. The Shanghai Metro — the most “untouchable” state-owned enterprise, with the highest ridership and strongest subsidies — quietly laid off 2,000 workers.
And this isn’t just about trains. It’s about the collapse of an entire model.
The Human Cost
Almost all of the layoffs hit middle-aged workers in their 40s and 50s. Stationmasters, train drivers, maintenance crews — people who had devoted their entire lives to the subway system.
Their severance packages? A stationmaster with 30 years of service received 430,000 yuan. A driver with 25 years got 310,000. A technician with 20 years, 235,000.
On paper, it looks decent. But in Shanghai, this payout barely buys breathing room. One worker summed it up bitterly: “If we can last three years, it’s good.”
Three years. After decades of service. That’s not retirement. That’s survival.
No Way Back
And what comes after? For middle-aged workers in China, re-employment is almost impossible. Internet firms call you “too old.” Manufacturing is cutting jobs, not adding them. Foreign companies? They’re leaving.
The only “opportunities” left are food delivery, ride-hailing, courier work — jobs that pay maybe 5,000 yuan a month. Enough to cover mortgage interest, nothing more.
That severance package isn’t a parachute. It’s a slow-motion fall into poverty.
A Systemic Breakdown
Officially, unemployment is just 5.1%. But private estimates put the real number closer to 15% in 2025. For workers over 40? Re-employment rates are under 20%.
Even worse, the story doesn’t stop at Shanghai Metro. Across China, subways are financial black holes. Beijing lost 21 billion yuan in one year. Shenzhen lost 33 billion. Total debt across China’s subway companies? Over 4.7 trillion yuan.
For years, the “subway miracle” was propped up by land finance — the idea that building metro lines would boost land values, and governments could sell the land to cover the costs. But land sales collapsed from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.3 trillion in 2024.
The math no longer works.
The Fiscal Time Bomb
Here’s the chain reaction:
Beijing squeezes local governments.
Local governments squeeze state-owned companies.
Companies squeeze workers.
When even the Shanghai Metro — once the pride of China’s modernization — can’t hold on, it means the illusion of stability is gone.
Why It Matters
Back in 1998, 30 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises. It was painful, but China still had growth engines: real estate, exports, WTO entry. Workers could at least find new opportunities.
In 2025, there is no such safety net. Real estate is collapsing. New industries can’t absorb the unemployed.
The layoffs in Shanghai Metro aren’t just a company crisis. They are a mirror of China’s economic unravelling. |
