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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (77789)10/6/2025 8:37:06 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 78464
 
Tronox Inc (TROX) pays a 10.4% dividend; My 3rd add as I build this position

Tronox Holdings plc is a vertically integrated mining and inorganic chemical business. The company mines and processes titanium ore, zircon and other minerals and manufactures titanium dioxide pigments to paints, plastics, paper and other everyday products. It operates primarily in South Africa, Australia, United States, the Netherlands and Australia. Tronox Holdings plc, formerly known as Tronox Limited, is based in London, United Kingdom.
It's a commodity play w/ a BV of $10.59/share

Value PropositionTronox's competitive advantages stem from:
  • Vertical integration, enabling control over mining, processing, and finished product sales for key minerals (TiO2 and zircon), used in paints, coatings, plastics, and paper.

  • Industry scale and global reach, which deliver efficiency and reliability for customers (2024 revenue: ~$3.3 billion; projected 2025: $3.0–3.1 billion).

  • Consistent focus on sustainability, environmental stewardship, and innovation, highlighted by major investments in R&D, emissions reduction, waste management, and mine upgrades.

  • Long-term market potential for zircon (7.5% CAGR forecast) and early demand recovery in regions like India help offset cyclicality in their primary TiO2 business.

  • Cost discipline and operational efficiency initiatives ($125–$175 million in planned annual cost savings by end of 2026).

Debt ConcernsTronox's debt load is substantial and presents clear risks:
  • As of mid-2025, Tronox's total debt stands at about $3.1 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 6.8x and an interest coverage ratio below 1x (0.74x).

  • Both Moody’s and S&P have downgraded Tronox’s credit ratings, further increasing the cost and difficulty of refinancing.

  • Despite a $397 million liquidity buffer and no major debt maturities until 2029, the company remains exposed to liquidity stress if earnings weaken further or restructuring benefits don’t materialize.

  • The dividend has been cut by 60%, capital expenditures sharply reduced (now under $330M for 2025), and aggressive cost-cutting is underway.

  • High debt levels, volatile product pricing, and cyclically weak demand amplify risk; investors should definitely be concerned about Tronox’s credit profile and watch for progress in deleveraging and operational turnaround.

Tangible Asset Worth (Minerals and PP&E)Tronox’s balance sheet supports its valuation through substantial tangible assets:
  • As of June 2025, Tronox reports total assets of ~$6.19 billion, including:

    • Property, plant, and equipment (PP&E): ~$2.0 billion

    • Mineral leaseholds, net: ~$613 million

    • Inventories: ~$1.7 billion

  • The mineral leaseholds figure ($613M) represents booked value for their “minerals in the ground,” but may be conservative relative to market or replacement value, depending on future pricing and regulatory factors.

  • Ongoing capital investment into mine upgrades (e.g., Fairbreeze Phase 2) aims to expand future capacity and support long-term asset value.

Tronox presents a differentiated global mining and industrial chemicals profile, but its debt is a material risk that requires vigilance; asset values, although significant, may be impaired if market conditions remain weak or restructuring efforts falter.
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