ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

George Statham

To: ajtj99 who wrote (95580)	10/7/2025 5:21:46 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations of 96843

In a bull market, stocks spend most of their time above the red rail and the red rail becomes a support. If they breach the red rail and they don't bounce right back and hover below the red rail, then there is a 50% chance that they will make it to the blue rail. Then they are very likely to bounce unless something is badly wrong, in which case they will go to the green rail (or the green rail rises to meet them). I think about it in terms of how likely a stock is to go to the next guardrail and how much money I'd get to make if it does. This is my risk adjusted return thinking. But the odds are stacked against you because typically the down side 50% to the red rail, 35% to the blue rail, and only 15% to the green rail. Also note that touching the blue rail doesn't mean touching it from where it is. The rail is likely to move up. so your gains are even smaller. In a bear market the opposite is true. Below are some charts to see this for yourself. Gold NDX TSLA ORCL NBTX

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