For consideration by all, including shorters,
May as well post it, as I've just spent an hour digging the info up.
Hope it helps some to realize that the Q to Q pattern of run ups
and sell offs are not as consistent as you may think.
Q4 96' - Was UP 3 of 5 days prior to report on 12/18.
- Traded at lower range the week prior or longer.
- Moved UP post report.
Q1 97' - Was UP 4 of 5 days prior to report on 3/10.
- Traded in a lower range the week prior or longer.
- Moved DOWN to below pre run range, post report.
Q2 97' - Was DOWN 5 of 5 days prior to report on 6/9.
- Had a nice run UP the week prior or longer.
- Moved SIDEWAYS (10% range) for 7 days post report.
- Moved UP 45%, rested and then, UP 120% total pre Q3.
Q3 97' - Was UP 5 of 5 days prior to report on 9/3.
- Was UP the week prior as well.
- Traded SIDEWAYS post report (with exception of 1day)
in a 10% range of the report and prior day close for 23
days. Then went UP from $11 to $18 1/2 5 days prior to
Q4, (70%).
Q4 97' - Was DOWN 4 of 5 days prior to report on 12/17.
- Moved UP prior to week of pre report.
- Moved DOWN post release and has traded in the $15
range most of Q with exception of a few days mid Jan.
Q1 98' - So Far it is a PUSH, I'd guess $18 1/2 + on Friday.
- Move was UP the week before.
- Won't know until post earnings and can't guess based on
past quarters as they are all different. The P/E, Market
conditions, perception of company and sector relative to
time of year and a whole host of other factors from
options to shorts and waiting to see how Q1 sets up the
year, and more, keeps it from being that simple. Also
keeps the historical "post release sell off" from being a
given, especially when it is no more the case then not if
we look further then the day of the report, front and
back.
This can go anyway, and there is not enough post report sell off
vs. flat or runs to hang a hat on. If you have to hang your hat on
something, I suggest that the fundamentals make a good rack. If
the numbers are there, then post release you own a even more
undervalued stock. If not, then less over valued.
SO, IS YOUR CUP HALF EMPTY OR HALF FULL AT $17-
$19 PRE EARNINGS. I'd sure rather see this range then $20's.
CH CH CH CHOOO OO!! Some facts, some opinion. FWIW.
Technically, I think you can go back a year, draw an accelerated growth trendline and see the first phase. Now go back to the same point of origin and draw to mid Jan and follow to now. You are looking at the start of it's second phase that should have a very long run into 1999 before becoming a more normal but still healthy curve, IMO. |
