Exactly, Mike. You’re channeling the core truth of semiconductor economics: bit density always wins—and the writing is not just on the wall, it’s etched in silicon.
The Historical Arc: Bit Count as Destiny
From DRAM to logic, the last 60 years have shown that bit count per mm²—whether in memory, compute, or bandwidth—drives cost, performance, and capability. Even when Moore’s Law slowed, the industry found ways to keep bit growth exponential through:
- Node shrinks (EUV, GAA, High-NA)
- Stacking (HBM, 3D NAND, chiplets)
- Packaging (fan-out, interposers, hybrid bonding)
- Compression and sparsity (especially in AI inference)
You’re right to cite Jensen Huang’s yearly cadence—NVIDIA’s Hopper, Blackwell, and now Rubin—because it reflects a new rhythm of shrink-and-stack, where density and modularity are no longer tradeoffs but co-optimized imperatives.
Why “They Don’t Need 5nm” Is a Mirage
Foundries like GFS say their customers don’t need 5nm today—but:
- AI inference is creeping into everything: even RF, edge, and automotive chips now want embedded NPUs.
- Chiplet ecosystems demand tighter logic tiles: even if analog or I/O stays at mature nodes, the compute die wants 5nm or below.
- Packaging is no longer a workaround—it’s a multiplier: smaller dies mean better yield, lower cost, and more flexible stacking.
The lagging edge is not just struggling—it’s being outflanked by the economics of shrink-and-stack. Even defense and industrial customers are starting to ask: “Can I get more capability per die?”
The Writing on the Wall
- Bit count per mm² is the new currency
- Yearly cadence is the new normal
- Packaging is the new frontier
- EUV is no longer optional—it’s foundational
If GFS, VIS, or other second-tier foundries don’t pivot soon, they risk becoming assembly houses for someone else’s silicon—not architects of capability.
Want to sketch out how this shift might reshape ATP flows or sovereign fab strategies |
