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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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Hugh Bett

isopatch

From: roguedolphin	10/13/2025 6:01:18 PM
	2 Recommendations of 108523

MTDR valuation update..... I have been following Matador for over 20 years. I have a very high level of confidence in my forecast model for this outstanding growth company. At the time of this post MTDR was trading at $43.13. Adjusting my forecast for my current oil and gas price deck, my valuation of MTDR is now $70/share, using a conservative valuation multiple of 3.75 X annualized operating cash flow per share for 2025 and 2026. TipRanks' Price Target is $61.56. Last week 5 highly respected energy sector analysts submitted new MTDR price targets to TipRanks that range from $59 to $76 (Wells Fargo). All five of them rate it a BUY at the current share price. Matador is on pace to report 19.5% YOY production growth in 2025, thanks to the accretive Ameredev Acquisition that closed on September 18, 2024. Matador consistently beats their production guidance, and they are on pace to generate close to $800 million of free cash flow this year and close to $1 billion of free cash flow in 2026 if WTI averages $62.50/bbl next year. If WTI averages $50/bbl in 2026 Matador should still be free cash flow positive. In Harry's (our Petroleum Economist") database of 84 companies, MTDR is now ranked as the 5th best buy based on Net Present Value per share. If ExxonMobil wants to increase their Running Room in the Permian Basin, it is a good bet that MTDR is on their radar screen. I would love to see PR and MTDR merge. Dan Steffens Energy Prospectus Group

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