Copilot: Plausible 7nm & below could exceed 80% of TSMC’s revenue 2Q26.
Yes, it’s very plausible that 7nm and below could exceed 80% of TSMC’s revenue by Q2 2026—driven by accelerating 2nm adoption, continued strength in 3nm and 5nm, and tapering demand for older nodes.
Why 80%+ Is Likely by Mid-2026
- Current Share: In Q3 2025, nodes 7nm and below already accounted for 74% of TSMC’s revenue, with 3nm alone contributing 24%.
- 2nm Ramp:
- TSMC plans to produce 60,000 wafers/month across four fabs by 2026.
- Wafer pricing is ~50% higher than 3nm, boosting revenue share even with modest volume.
- Early yields (~60%) and strong tapeout momentum suggest faster adoption than 3nm or 5nm.
- Customer Demand:
- TSMC has secured 15 customers for 2nm, with 10 focused on HPC—a shift from mobile-centric adoption at earlier nodes.
- Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to launch 2nm designs in 2026.
Older nodes (16nm and above) will continue to decline as mobile, AI, and HPC shift to advanced packaging and chiplets. - High wafer pricing at 2nm amplifies revenue impact even before full volume ramps.
Strategic Implications
- TSMC’s SPR and GAAFET integration at 2nm gives it a competitive edge over Samsung SF2 and Intel 18A.
- Packaging and chiplet ecosystems (CoWoS, InFO, SoIC) will further concentrate revenue in advanced nodes.
- AI and mobile convergence—with edge inference and connectivity—will push even mid-tier designs toward 5nm and below.
Bottom line: With 2nm ramping faster than expected and 3nm/5nm still growing, TSMC’s sub-7nm revenue share could easily cross 80% by Q2 2026, marking a major inflection point in node consolidation.
Would you like a breakdown of how wafer pricing and yield at 2nm compare to 3nm and 5nm—and how that affects margin mix? I can chart that out next.
PS I'm here for the EXE/NXE/NXTi Age.
What proceeded?
Warmups.
ASML
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