"HBM4 is seeing explosive growth"
Yes—demand for both DDR5 and HBM4 is strong, but HBM4 is seeing explosive growth due to AI workloads, while DDR5 demand is growing more modestly in traditional compute segments.
Here’s how the landscape looks:
HBM4: Surging on AI and HPC Momentum
- HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the fastest-growing DRAM segment, driven by AI training, inference, and HPC workloads.
- In 2025, HBM revenue is projected to nearly double, reaching ~$34 billion, with a 33% CAGR through 2030.
- HBM4, the next-gen standard, is expected to ramp in late 2025 into 2026, with early adoption by NVIDIA, AMD, and AI accelerator vendors.
- Capacity constraints and premium pricing are fueling strategic pre-buys and long-term supply agreements.
- DDR5: Steady Growth, Especially in Servers
- DDR5 adoption is accelerating in data centers and high-performance PCs, replacing DDR4 as platforms transition.
- However, conventional DRAM (DDR, LPDDR, GDDR) is forecasted to grow at a modest 3% CAGR through 2030, reaching ~$80 billion in 2024.
- DDR5-6400 and beyond are meeting JEDEC targets, but volume growth is tempered by extended server refresh cycles and cautious enterprise spending.
Capex and Supply Chain Shifts
- DRAM capex is shifting toward HBM, with fabs prioritizing TSV and 3D-stacked capacity over commodity DDR lines.
- This may constrain DDR5 supply in the short term, especially if AI demand pulls more wafer starts into HBM.
If you're tracking memory vendors or looking at system builds, HBM4 is where the strategic heat is—especially for AI accelerators. DDR5 is still essential, but it's playing a steadier, more evolutionary role. Want to dive into vendor roadmaps or packaging implications next?
[News] Memory Giants’ HBM Focus Could Limit DRAM Growth Through 2026; Taiwan Firms Boost DDR4
Global DRAM capacity growth is expected to remain limited through 2026, as major DRAM makers in Korea and the U.S. focus on HBM and advanced-node transitions, Commercial Times reports |
