| | | Sbfm- re: Walmart deploying millions of IoT sensors across the U.S.......................
IOT is entering into its mass adoption period - QCOM is in the field. (I had been thinking that much of IOT was a solution looking for a problem to solve - now I can a real, practical use.)
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Indeed, QCOM is involved >
......These tags don’t use Qualcomm chips directly, but they require infrastructure, compute, and licensing—where Qualcomm earns revenue.
Summary of long Q&A with Copilot >>>>>>>>>>
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Let’s model how Qualcomm could generate massive aggregate revenue from ambient IoT—despite low per-device ASP—by scaling across billions of deployed sensors and supporting infrastructure.
Scenario: 10 Billion Ambient IoT Tags Deployed Globally
These tags don’t use Qualcomm chips directly, but they require infrastructure, compute, and licensing—where Qualcomm earns revenue.
1. Bridge Devices (BLE/Wi-Fi Gateways)
- Assumption: 1 bridge device per 1,000 tags
- Total Bridges Needed: 10 billion ÷ 1,000 = 10 million units
- Qualcomm ASP per Bridge SoC: ~$30
- Revenue: 10 million × $30 = $300 million
2. Edge Inference Nodes (Smart Cameras, Shelf Monitors)
- Assumption: 1 inference node per 10,000 tags
- Total Nodes Needed: 10 billion ÷ 10,000 = 1 million units
- Qualcomm ASP per AI SoC: ~$75
- Revenue: 1 million × $75 = $75 million
3. Connectivity Infrastructure (Wi-Fi 6/7 Access Points)
- Assumption: 1 AP per 2,000 tags
- Total APs Needed: 10 billion ÷ 2,000 = 5 million units
- Qualcomm ASP per AP SoC: ~$40
- Revenue: 5 million × $40 = $200 million
4. Licensing & IP Royalties
- Assumption: Qualcomm earns $1 per 10 ambient tags via BLE/5G licensing
- Total Licensing Revenue: 10 billion ÷ 10 × $1 = $1 billion
Total Aggregate Revenue Estimate
Stream
| Revenue Estimate
| Bridge Devices
| $300 million
| Edge Inference
| $75 million
| Connectivity Infra
| $200 million
| Licensing/IP
| $1 billion
| Total
| $1.575 billion
| Strategic Implication
- Even with no direct tag sales, Qualcomm could generate $1.5B+ in ambient IoT revenue from orchestration layers.
- If deployment scales to 20B+ tags, this doubles.
- These are low-risk, high-leverage ASP streams tied to Qualcomm’s core strengths: connectivity, compute, and IP.
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Qualcomm Ambient IoT Revenue Forecast by Stream (2025–2030)
Stream
| 2025
| 2026
| 2027
| 2028
| 2029
| 2030
| Bridge Devices
| $50M
| $150M
| $300M
| $450M
| $600M
| $750M
| Edge Inference
| $10M
| $35M
| $75M
| $110M
| $150M
| $190M
| Connectivity Infra
| $30M
| $100M
| $200M
| $300M
| $400M
| $500M
| Licensing/IP
| $150M
| $500M
| $1B
| $1.5B
| $2B
| $2.5B
| Total Revenue
| $240M
| $785M
| $1.575B
| $2.36B
| $3.15B
| $3.94B
| |
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