[ Would you buy either CEF or AG or similar ETFs now? ]
=> Interesting question.
Am not currently buying shares of CEF.
Why?
Over the past five+ years have re-accumulated thousands of shares of CEF and that investment has (a) doubled and (b) now represents more than 7% of my total portfolio value[1].
You didn't ask, but have also accumulated a full basis position (or more) in the following related companies:
NEM, RGLD
and have established positions in the following:
AG, B, FCX
with my recent emphasis being AG.[2]
However, the question you didn't ask was:
would you buy shares of CEF or AG if you didn't currently own any?
And the answer to that question is -- it depends.
Have a disabled chum from HS for whom SS is his major source of income. Though he was a CTO for a Silicon Alley[3] firm his remaining accumulated financial assets are woefully insufficient for his long-term needs. So this year he started investing to compensate for the expected 20-30% SS haircut scheduled to arrive in roughly 5-6 years. If he cannot achieve such he believes (a) he'll lose his house and (b) be dead a few days to a few weeks later.[4]
If my position in life was similar to his, would concentrate on building anticipated annual dividend income.
Fortunately, am not where he is financially, physically, or mentally.
Instead believe I've the income, assets, and attitudes[5] to potentially (but minimally) compensate for what seems to be coming over the horizon -- so have diverted a small portion of my focus and income to buying a wee bit of gold, silver, uranium, and copper.
However, like many (most? all?) things in life, believe it's not possible to know if I've made good decisions until quite late in the game. My perspective on reality is much like the adage, sometimes attributed to Oscar Wilde: Life is a hard teacher. It gives the test before it provides the lesson.
Best wishes,
Kiisu
1. Across all portfolios treated as a unified whole.
In my dividend heavy tIRA, CEF now represents ten percent of total value. In a taxable portfolio CEF forms nearly 95 percent of total value.
Will start RMDs next year and have accumulated in SWVXX sufficient cash to pay that requirement.
My intent is as follows:
(a) pay the RMD and
(b) complete a ROTH conversion to transfer shares of CEF and thereby reduce portfolio value for the following year's RMD.
Why?
Believe doing so will give me more years during which the dividend producing portion of the tIRA will generate sufficient income to pay the RMD. Will still need to eventually liquidate the dividend generating companies in the tIRA (either selling 'em or in-kind transfer out), but believe with judicious ROTH conversions of shares of CEF can postpone that event a bit.
2. Bought a few shares this morning. Current position is still small ~11% of a full basis position.
Started a position in FCX after learning of their mining disaster in Indonesia.
Copper is yet another critical metal --essential for the continued operation of a modern high tech society-- that we consume faster than we can resupply.
. ht tps://www.reuters.com/business/slower-production-growth-will-push-copper-market-deficit-2026-says-icsg-2025-10-08/
3. ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Alley
4. His current income is barely sufficient --after cutting the frills-- to pay current bills[A]. Unfortunately, the local property taxes on his very modest home[B] increase every year and the rate of increase often exceeds the SS COLA.[C] After doing the math[D] he believes he cannot survive the impending SS cut unless his investments generate an insane amount of income.
In my opinion, his income goals are at the edge of possible and come with an uncomfortable --for me-- amount of risk.
Without adequate shelter, the winters there are not survivable.
5. Across the past six millennia of at least semi-documented history, results during times of sudden transition have varied wildly -- but are often accompanied with cascading failures and disasters. Believe, perhaps incorrectly, I've covered most of the minimal basics[E] and some (but not all) of the more likely scenarios.
A saying sometimes attributed to Denis Waitley[F] is: Hope for the best, plan for the worst, expect to be surprised.
Expect to be surprised no matter what happens, but hope the surprise will be more pleasant than not ;-)
---
A. A cell phone is one such frill, so is dining out and any type of paid entertainment. Due to old injuries and declining health he is often immobile and confined to a wheelchair for weeks at a time.
B. He lives in a distant major city. He's made numerous repairs since he bought the house more than a decade ago, but "modest" remains a gross overstatement of reality.
C. When we talk, he tells me his personal inflation rate since Covid exceeds 10% per year.
D. Smart guy. In our HS graduating class of nearly 300 he was #3. He can communicate in a more than a dozen (mostly northern) European languages and is fluent in a handful. We both started PhD programs, but never finished -- for much different reasons.
E. On a related note, if you've not done so, suggest reading:
(a) William J. Bernstein's short, but influential 2013 book, "Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design" -- bought my copy from Amazon, have read it repeatedly, and it remains close at hand near my desk.
(b) Harry Browne's permanent portfolio
. ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Browne
. ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fail-Safe_Investing
While Browne's permanent portfolio has four equally weighted quadrants, in today's world don't believe all are equally probable. As a consequence have oriented my portfolios towards equities and PM and have deliberately avoided long-dated government bonds. Keep some cash 'cause enough of it can, in my experience, transform an emergency into an inconvenience.
(c) The Macro Butler's article "Cash: King or Catch?"
. ht tps://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/cash-king-or-catch
F. ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denis_Waitley |
