....you just can not stop
......Russia routinely fires multiple nuclear capable missiles into Ukraine ( Iskander-M and certain cruise missiles (e.g., Kh-101/102 and Kalibr) are nuclear capable....many fired into western Ukraine (Lviv).....no positive or either likely way for NATO to distinguish whether those missiles are actually targeted into NATO countries....thus Russia could easily have enough nuclear tipped missiles flying in the air and within 30 miles of Poland as a thinly veiled first strike capability with no positive way for NATO to distinguish it from a conventional raid on Lviv......and so it ultimately comes down to trust between two parties....one who consistently and habitually LIES (Russia) and one who does not (the West))...........like between you ( disingenuous LIAR ) and me (TRUTHFUL)
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The most direct quote from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, made just before the invasion, in which he denied Russia had plans to attack Ukraine, is:
"There won’t be a war as far as it depends on the Russian Federation, we don’t want a war. But we won’t let our interests be rudely trampled on and ignored."
This quote was from a live radio interview on January 28, 2022, less than a month before the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022.
During this period, Lavrov and other top Russian officials, including the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, repeatedly denied any intention to invade Ukraine, despite the massive buildup of Russian troops on the border. Russia often dismissed the Western and Ukrainian warnings as "hysteria" and "disinformation."
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The premise of your question—that Russia launches dual-capable missiles at Lviv, a city near the border with NATO, and that this creates an extreme ambiguity and threat to Europe—is grounded in military and geopolitical reality.
Here is a breakdown of the facts and the inherent risks:
1. Russia Has Launched Dual-Capable Missiles at Lviv
Russia has repeatedly targeted the Lviv region with massed missile strikes using various weapons, including types that are dual-capable (meaning they can carry either a conventional or a nuclear warhead).
- Dual-Capable Missiles Used: The arsenal used in these strikes often includes Iskander-K cruise missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles, and Kalibr cruise missiles. The Iskander-M ballistic missile and Kinzhal aeroballistic missile are also dual-capable and have been launched at targets in Ukraine.
- Massed Strikes: There have been reports of large, combined strikes involving dozens of drones and various types of missiles aimed at the Lviv region and other parts of Ukraine, for instance, a massive strike reported in October 2025 where the Lviv region was the main target.
- Conventional Warheads: In every reported instance of a strike on Ukraine, the missiles carried conventional warheads. There is no evidence that Russia has ever used a nuclear warhead in the conflict.
2. The Geographical and Military Risk is Real
The strategic location of Lviv, near the Polish border, means missiles targeting it are traveling west and are on a general vector toward Europe.
- Trajectory Ambiguity: When a country detects the launch of an Iskander or a Kh-101/Kalibr missile from Russia, the key concern for NATO is: Is this missile carrying a conventional warhead for a target in Ukraine, or a nuclear warhead for a target in Europe?
- Dual-Capable Threat: The fact that these missile systems can carry a nuclear warhead automatically means any mass launch of these systems directed generally toward Western Europe is a high-level nuclear threat.
- Airspace Incursions: On multiple occasions, Russian cruise missiles targeting western Ukraine (including the Lviv area) have briefly entered NATO airspace, specifically over Poland, demonstrating the closeness of the fighting and the proximity of the threat. Polish air defenses and NATO jets have scrambled in response to these incidents.
3. Can a Missile "Switch" Targets Mid-Flight to a European City?
For modern cruise missiles like the Kh-101 or Kalibr, this is a technical possibility and is a core part of the ambiguity.
- Programmable Guidance: Cruise missiles are highly programmable and can be pre-programmed with multiple waypoints and target sets. A missile could be launched on a trajectory that appears to be heading for Lviv, but its guidance system could be programmed to execute a sharp turn and continue to a target deeper inside Europe.
- In-Flight Retargeting: Some advanced missiles can be re-targeted in flight via satellite or datalink. Russia could, in theory, switch a missile's final target after launch.
Conclusion
Therefore, the scenario you describe is entirely possible in terms of capability and geography.
- Fact: Russia has launched multiple dual-capable missiles toward Lviv.
- Fact: The initial flight path of these missiles is a danger vector for NATO countries like Poland.
- Inherent Risk: The launches constitute a "thinly veiled first strike capability" in the sense that a conventional strike on Lviv could be indistinguishable from the opening move of a nuclear attack on Europe until the last minutes of flight.
The key restraint preventing Russia from escalating to this level is the doctrine of nuclear deterrence, which makes the use of nuclear weapons, even in a "warning" strike, an existential risk for the Russian state. |
