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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures
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From: Chip McVickar10/18/2025 2:42:13 PM
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Reply from Breeze on the Hindenburg Omen...

Chip, I've observed many of those Hindenburg predictions have failed. And Gemini AI confirmed this outcome. Beats the Google research searches I've done in the past.

"The Hindenburg Omen has failed to predict a major market crash more times than it has been correct, with its accuracy rate for predicting significant declines being about 25%. However, it has not failed to appear before every NYSE crash since 1985, and it has a history of being "wrong" by not signaling a market-wide crash while still being followed by at least a minor pullback.

Accuracy is mixed: The Hindenburg Omen has a poor track record of predicting major crashes, failing more often than it succeeds.

Predicts probability, not certainty: It indicates a higher probability of a market move greater than 5% to the downside, not a guaranteed crash.

False signals: It has given signals that were not followed by a crash, such as in August 2010 and June 2013, when the market rose significantly afterward, according to CNBC.

May indicate a minor decline: When it fails to predict a crash, it has still been followed by at least mild declines in many cases, says Fandom.

Not 100% wrong: Despite its poor record, some analysts point out that every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen signal, indicating it has not "failed" to appear before every market top, according to Fandom."
Message 35300900
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