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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!

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From: Sean Collett	10/20/2025 9:30:54 AM
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Hello Bears, As of last week I sized into a full position for $TLT in anticipation of aggressive rate cuts coming from the fed. Long calls into late 2026/early 2027 to give myself time to see where things will go. In late 2021 I had bought puts on $TLT when inflation was "transitory" and saw all the takes on how I was wrong - $TLT went from $145-150/s down to where we have been around. We're at a stage where the cutting cycle has already begun and new fed chair in May will likely support a lower rate. Economy already looks fragile and folks talking of this K-shaped recovery as if that means things will be fine. The economy needs that bottom part of the K to function so spending into AI isn't going to offset the declines. Possible deficit will become a bigger focus so that's the risk to the investment going south, but I find the natural relationship will take place over this time and as rates go down and economy slows with it then the 30Y yield will decline as well. Current 30Y yield is 4.5780% and I expect if the yield declines to ~3.5% that will bring $TLT to $107.08-107.45. Happy investing, Sean

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