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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (96059)10/21/2025 2:18:55 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

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Re: NFLX

In the chart below, pay attention to the rails and where the stock is relative to the blue rail, which is the "neutral" position.

Two quarters ago, where I've placed a vertical bar, the range = (red - green)/blue was 18%. The blue rail had positive slope and the stock was just above it *with a positive short term trend*. This put a positive bias on the stock and you can see how it went from there.

In the next quarter, the stock was still above the blue rail, but had a negative short term trend. It was also closer to the red rail than the green. This implied that NFLX was likely to be a market performer and more or less follow the blue rail.

Today however the blue rail is flat and the range is only ~3%. The range has narrowed from 18% to 3%. This is significant. It means you should be long volatility. We can't tell from the chart where the stock is more likely to go, but it means that whatever move it makes is likely to place it outside of the red/green rails. Perhaps not immediately, but that will be the direction.

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