I've revised my 1998 estimates, and I'm having a hard time believing
that my estimates are anything but conservative. Nonetheless, they
are significantly higher than the new Street estimates ($1.40-$1.60).
I also expect that THQ might be able to achieve 10-15% upside from my
numbers. But I'm comfortable with my 1998 estimates.
Here they are:
Sales Income EPS
Q1: $34.4 $3.5 $0.47
Q2: $26.8 $2.6 $0.35
Q3: $30.0 $2.9 $0.38
Q4: $82.1 $8.5 $1.09
FY98:$173.3 $17.5 $2.29
New price target for 1998: $60
I'm assuming that several titles will be pushed out to Q4 from Q3,
so that THQ can beat Q4 1997.
These estimates do not account for the fact that Quest 64 might be a
blockbuster.
THQI will go a lot higher tomorrow, as momentum buyers jump in. Refer
back to my list of short-term factors that will lift the stock. We
should certainly see the low $30s tomorrow, and maybe 1.5 million
shares traded.
---
I looked at TMSR nearly a year ago, and warned of a possible secondary
offering. The stock outperformed THQ in the short term, but then
dropped in the fall, and it has since underperformed. THQI is still
the best stock that I know. TMSR may be basing in the $11 area, but
it's not as good of a BUY as THQI.
In case anyone cares, I doubled my position in EIDSY moments before
the closing bell.
Today, I increased my THQI shares by 5% at ~$26. It should go much
higher in the short (and long) term.
Todd |
