| | | Cleveland-Cliffs surrenders previous day's gain as Wells Fargo cuts to Sell equivalent
Oct. 21, 2025 2:23 PM ET
By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) -17.9% in Tuesday's trading after the previous session's 21% surge, when CEO Lourenco Goncalves said the steelmaker would expand its presence in rare earth metals, possibly through existing mining sites in Michigan and Minnesota, and disclosed a memorandum of understanding with an unnamed foreign steel company looking for more access to U.S. markets.
But Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) to Underweight from Equal Weight with an $11 price target, saying the stock's surge was an "overreaction" based mostly on unknowns that should give investors skepticism.
"We don't know of other deposits in the region, and would be skeptical of an attractive return, absent further information," Tanners said of the potential rare earth deposits.
Cliffs' ( CLF) Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $143 million easily topped consensus while revenues fell just short, while management again cut estimated FY 2025 capex by $75 million to $525 million, with SG&A guided down $25 million to $550 million, causing Tanners to trim estimated Q4 EBITDA by 11% to $147 million, with $211 million analyst consensus looking too high.
Tanners sees a brighter 2026 ahead for the company, with EBITDA estimates improving sharply Y/Y on the back of richer auto contracts in its mix and the end of an underwater priced slab contract, and anticipating improving steel prices into next year's H1 to $900/st for benchmark hot rolled coil from ~$800/st recently. |
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