Eric, some more comments on your Q2 page.
Analysts:
You mention that analysts were way off in Q1--that's true
historically as well. I compared EPS Surprises between AAPL,
MSFT and DELL. It looks like this:
AAPL MSFT DELL
Jun96 +.50 +.01 +.07
Sep96 +.36 +.02 +.10
Dec96 -.21 +.06 +.09
Mar97 -.20 +.15 +.07
Jun97 +.17 +.01 +.05
Sep97 -.05 +.02 +.04
Dec97 -.02 +.03 +.05
The Dec97 AAPL EPS Surprise is the bogus one. I don't recall
what the real figure should be. But you get the idea.
Basically, analysts are completely clueless in predicting
AAPL, and they screw up on both sides, positive and negative.
Whether it's because AAPL has been very volatile, or they just
don't follow it as closely as other companies such as DELL and
MSFT, I don't know.
(The funny thing about this is that my charts use bar graphs
to show EPS, and when the bar goes off the graph they indicate
it with a broken line. Until Sep97, ALL of AAPL's bars had a
broken line).
Margins
I think AAPL's improved Q1 margins shouldn't be attributed
so entirely to the G3s. I remember reading in several places
that Steve has gone around and renegotiated a lot of OEM
contracts, which would contribute to improved margins across
the board. For instance, Hewlett-Packard supplies a lot of
the innards for Apple's printers, and there was discussion
that HP was so pissed off with Steve's negotiating stance
that they considered dropping Apple; and, conversely, there
was discussion that Apple was considering droppings its
entire imaging line. Of course, neither happened, but it
seems reasonable to guess that Steve's tough stance did
endanger that OEM contract, and that he walked away with
a deal that helped out the Q1 margins.
rhet0ric |
