Rooftop PV output breaks through 5 GW for first time in Australia’s sunniest and most coal dependent grid
Installing rooftop solar in Queensland.
Giles Parkinson
Oct 22, 2025
Coal
Policy & Planning
Solar
Solar PV mounted on the rooftops of homes and businesses in Queensland, the Sunshine state, broke through the 5 gigawatt barrier on Tuesday to a new record high of 5.05 GW, or more than 52 per cent of state demand even on a day that set new temperature records.
It was the second time in two days that the record was broken – befitting in a spring heatwave – and reflects the rapidly changing nature of the grid in Queensland, and around the country.
A year ago, the record was 4.6 GW, according to GPE NEMlog, so growth of 10 per cent in just 12 months. And the latest data from the Clean Energy Regulator suggests that growth is not slowing down, with around one third of new rooftop installations in the state replacing smaller or cyclone damaged systems.
Rooftop PV has already hit a record share of 57 per cent of electricity demand in Queensland, and the LNP government proudly boasts in its new energy roadmap that the state has more rooftop solar than anyone else – 7 GW to be precise – and rapidly catching up to coal, which currently sits at 8 GW.
In a few years, solar PV will be overtake coal as its capacity grows to at around 11 GW by the end of the decade, according to the roadmap, and presumably will add another 4 GW at least in the five years that follow.
The state’s biggest coal generator at Gladstone is to be retired in 2029, to make way for large scale wind, solar and solar battery hybrids to power Rio Tinto’s smelters and refineries, the biggest consumers in the state.
That leaves just over 6 GW of coal capacity in the grid in 2030, and the LNP somehow expects there to be still 5.8 GW of coal capacity in 2035 – even with around 15 GW of rooftop solar in a grid with a maximum demand of just under 12 GW (although that may grow).
It does you make you wonder if the state government decision makers have thought this through carefully, given that its state-owned generators like Stanwell have been warning – since about 2012 – that rooftop solar will be the death of their coal fired generators and the very concept of baseload.
The LNP declares that its coal fired power stations will be “operating for decades”, regardless of any climate impacts, and seemingly oblivious to the engineering and economic challenges of dancing around rooftop solar, which it assumes will curb demand for large scale wind and solar only.
In NSW, the state’s biggest grid, the remaining coal fired power generators are learning how to dance around rooftop PV, dialling down their output to just 20 per cent of their rated capacity – a level thought impossible until recently – or even switching them off entirely for short periods in a process known as “two-shifting.”
The NSW coal generator owners may well be trying to eke as much profit out of their existing coal generators while they can – and their effective buyers strike on new large scale wind and solar helps them do that – but they are not kidding themselves that this ageing kit can continue running much longer.
Queensland, though, seems to be in a state of delusion about what it can achieve as the dynamic of the grid change dramatically.
With 15 GW in its grid, rooftop solar will be capable of meeting all the state’s demand on its own, as already occurs in South Australia.
Quite how the LNP thinks baseload is tenable in this scenario is not clear – the South Australians have already moved beyond baseload to storage and flexibility capacity – it’s a matter of economics, engineering, emissions and keeping the lights on.
The Queensland LNP says it wants to keep coal running and has effectively said no to new large scale wind and solar, apart from those projects already under construction, contracted by Rio Tinto or underwritten by the federal government’s Capacity Investment Scheme.
It is focusing on gas – and has already written a supply contract with a company controlled by Australia’s richest renewable energy critic, Gina Rinehart, for a gas supply for a new 400 MW peaking facility.
This is unlikely to play out well for consumers, or for the grid. As rooftop solar output increases, even with the rapid uptake of household batteries, that will create an ever bigger solar duck and a bigger challenge for the coal fired generators.
Large battery storage will help, and it is no coincidence that many of the big batteries being built in Queensland are located right next to the ageing coal generators they will ultimately help replace, but will likely be used to nurse them through the midday hours.
The planned focus on peaking gas generators to provide the flexibility and fill in the gaps simply means that the state will be at increased risk of sudden thermal breakdowns, and at the mercy of gas, which all studies show influences the level of wholesale prices in Australia’s grid.
The Queensland grid currently has the heaviest dependent on coal – and in most places in the world – with a share of 65 per cent over the last 12 months. Its share of renewables trails the country at a modest 32 per cent.
The state was to hit 50 per cent renewables by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2035, but according to the Queensland Conservation Council, is now on track to reach just 54 per cent renewables by 2035.
That will be a bad outcome for emissions, and almost certainly a catastrophic outcome for grid reliability and electricity prices. Don’t blame Queenslanders though – they are continuing to take up the only sensible option for them, install more rooftop PV, and a battery if you can.
Meanwhile, wind, solar and storage developers are largely relying on the assumption that the energy roadmap is a whole lot of political nonsense, and that sooner or later the government will have to come running to them to build facilities.
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