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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio
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From: QTI on SI10/23/2025 4:14:10 PM
9 Recommendations

Recommended By
cajman1
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Mili21

and 4 more members

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Well, I stuck to my guns and did not add to UTG today based on the previous analysis (on historic yield) that I shared here. I already have a 5.15% position that has appreciated 47%. Also, based on pure momentum, there seems to more downside risk here than upside reward, so I held off adding here. But good luck to those who added today.

See the UTG chart below with RSI and MACD, also included AI analysis of the momentum:



1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
  • Current RSI ˜ 57 (as shown near the lower pane).

  • The RSI overbought zone is typically above 70, and oversold is below 30.

  • At 57, UTG is neutral to slightly elevated — not yet overbought, but getting closer to mid-upper range.

  • Historically, UTG tends to peak when RSI is 65–70+, which usually aligns with yield compression (premium territory).

Interpretation:
RSI suggests no immediate overbought condition, but limited upside momentum unless utilities continue rallying.

2. MACD (Momentum)
  • The MACD line is positive but flattening, indicating momentum is slowing after a recent rally.

  • Crossovers near this level (if the blue line dips below yellow) often precede short-term pullbacks in UTG.

Interpretation:
The MACD shows waning momentum, meaning the rally may be running out of steam in the short term.

3. Price Context
  • UTG has rebounded sharply from its 2022–2023 lows (~$25) to near $38 recently.

  • Historically, UTG’s price highs ($38–$40) tend to coincide with yields near 6%, which has often been a neutral-to-slightly-expensive zone for new buyers.

  • With current yield at 6.4%, you’re near the lower end of its multi-year yield range (not deeply undervalued).

4. Risk vs. Reward Summary

RSINeutral (~57)Not overbought, but less room for gains
MACDFlatteningMomentum fading, possible pullback
Yield6.4% (below long-term avg 7%+)Limited income appeal vs. historical levels
Price LevelNear resistance ($38–$40)Risk of mean reversion


Conclusion UTG isn’t overbought yet, but it’s closer to the upper end of its recent trading range.
There’s more downside risk than upside reward in the near term unless utilities or long-duration income sectors break higher on rate cuts.

Best course:
Wait for a pullback toward the $33–$35 range (yield closer to 7%+) before adding meaningfully. That’s historically been a better risk-adjusted entry zone for long-term investors.
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