| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46734.40 | +144.20 | (0.31%) | | Nasdaq | 22941.82 | +201.40 | (0.89%) | | SP 500 | 6738.43 | +39.04 | (0.58%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1752 | Dec 977 | Vol 1.10 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3047 | Dec 1622 | Vol 10.46 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Materials, Industrial, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary |
| | Weak: Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities |
Moving the Market
Tesla (TSLA) rebounds from earnings miss, other mega-caps mostly higher
Semiconductors and other tech names rebound from yesterday's slide
Oil prices surge after U.S. sanctions Russian companies
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Stocks rebound as tech and mega-caps lead broad advance
23-Oct-25 16:30 ET
Dow +144.20 at 46734.40, Nasdaq +201.40 at 22941.82, S&P +39.04 at 6738.43
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market opened to a solid rebound in its mega-cap and tech names, which steadily broadened throughout the day, sending the major averages higher and widening their week-to-date gains past 1.0%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) led the way, with the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and DJIA (+0.3%) also capturing gains. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.4%) outperformed as investors rotated back out of more defensive holdings today.
After a retreat yesterday (and an underwhelming week for that matter), it was unclear how the market's largest names would perform today, especially given Tesla's (TSLA 449.09, +10.12, +2.31%) earnings miss. While Tesla held a loss of nearly 4.0% early on, it remained contained, as other mega-caps showed early strength. Even more encouragingly, Tesla would go on to reverse its early loss as sentiment improved throughout the session, helping the consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) rise above its flatline.
Elsewhere in the sector, Las Vegas Sands (LVS 56.89, +6.27, +12.39%) captured one of the widest gains across S&P 500 names after topping estimates and increasing its quarterly dividend.
The information technology sector (+1.0%) was a driver of the index-level gains, supported by a combination of semiconductor and mega-cap strength.
A beat-and-raise earnings report from Lam Research (LRCX 147.54, +6.29, +4.45%) saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index rise 2.5%, with NVIDIA (NVDA 182.16, +1.88, +1.04%) among the names that also contributed to a 0.8% advance in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF.
The industrials sector (+1.3%) was another top performer today as Honeywell (HON 220.67, +14.06, +6.81%) moved higher after a beat-and-raise report of its own, while earnings strength from Dow (DOW 24.52, +2.82, +13.00%) boosted the materials sector (+1.0%).
The energy sector (+1.3%) finished similarly, widening this week's gains as crude oil futures settled today's session $3.27 higher (+5.6%) at $61.78 per barrel after the Treasury Department announced sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
Meanwhile, the defensive consumer staples (-0.4%), utilities (flat), and health care (flat) sectors lagged as investors focused on growth-oriented plays today. The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF closed 1.7% higher after retreating yesterday.
The real estate sector (-0.1%) also closed slightly lower.
Market sentiment was further lifted by growing optimism over a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. CNBC reported that President Trump will travel to Asia next week, where he is expected to sign trade agreements with 12 countries. He will meet with Chinese President Xi on October 30 to discuss a potential deal covering soybeans, rare earth metals, nuclear weapons, and TikTok. Trump noted that he does not want China to face the threatened 157% tariffs, calling them unsustainable.
The market ultimately benefitted from a number of tailwinds, with today's advance setting the major averages up for solid week-to-date gains. Tomorrow brings the delayed release of the September Consumer Price Index (Briefing.com consensus: +0.4%), which will be an important gauge for the market's rate cut expectations given the recent data vacuum.
Additionally, while Tesla (TSLA 449.09, +10.12, +2.31%), Lam Research (LRCX 147.54, +6.29, +4.45%), and IBM (IBM 285.00, -2.51, -0.87%) all reversed course from significant early losses, Netflix (NFLX 1113.59, -2.78, -0.25%) has yet to prompt any buy-the-dip interest, putting further pressure on earnings reports to dazzle heading into next week's mega-cap earnings reports.
U.S. Treasuries ended Thursday with losses across the curve, as longer tenors dipped from their best levels of the month while the 2-year note deepened last week's reversal from its October high. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.48%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.99%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +18.8% YTD
- S&P 500: + 14.6% YTD
- Russell 2000: +11.3% YTD
- DJIA: +9.9% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.1% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Existing home sales increased 1.5% month-over-month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million (Briefing.com consensus 4.05 million) from an unrevised 4.00 million in August. Sales were up 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.
- The key takeaway from the report is that home sales in September were aided by falling mortgage rates, which eased (but did not negate) affordability constraints for some home buyers.
President Trump to meet with Asian leaders next week
23-Oct-25 15:25 ET
Dow +191.75 at 46781.95, Nasdaq +230.36 at 22970.78, S&P +48.12 at 6747.51
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are holding on to their solid gains for the day as the market enters the final half hour of the session.
CNBC reports that President Trump is expected to sign trade agreements with 12 countries during his trip to Asia next week. The president will meet with Chinese President Xi on Thursday and hopes to secure a deal with China on soybeans, rare earth metals, nuclear weapons, and TikTok.
On the earnings front, Intel (INTC 37.90, +0.98, +2.65%) trades higher ahead of its earnings release after the close, while Ford Motor (F 12.33, -0.10, -0.80%) moves lower.
Major averages continue to chart session highs
23-Oct-25 15:05 ET
Dow +193.42 at 46783.62, Nasdaq +230.02 at 22970.44, S&P +48.45 at 6747.84
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (+0.4%) continue to move higher on broadening strength, leaving just the consumer staples sector (-0.4%) below its baseline.
The sector, which was one of just four to advance yesterday as investors rotated into more defensive holdings, faces losses across the majority of its constituents.
Coca-Cola (KO 70.00, -0.80, -1.14%) moves lower despite Barclay's raising the stock's price target to $77 from $71, though it still holds a 2.3% gain for the week.
Elsewhere, the energy sector (+1.9%) remains today's frontrunner as crude oil futures settled today's session $3.27 higher (+5.6%) at $61.78 per barrel.
S&P 500 climbs 0.7% as LVS, WST, and APA lead gains; URI slides after earnings miss
23-Oct-25 14:25 ET
Dow +171.41 at 46761.61, Nasdaq +225.96 at 22966.38, S&P +44.69 at 6744.08
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.67%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, up about 45 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Las Vegas Sands (LVS 57.34, +6.72, +13.28%), West Pharm (WST 309.45, +32.45, +11.71%), and APA Corp. (APA 24.64, +1.75, +7.65%) pepper the top of the standings. LVS rises after reporting strong Q3 results that beat estimates, boosting its dividend by 20% and expanding its share repurchase authorization by $2 bln, signaling confidence in continued growth across Macao and Singapore, while WST, too, reported an earnings beat this morning, and APA alongside other oil/energy stocks rise amid gains in oil futures following sanctions on Russia.
Meanwhile, United Rentals (URI 912.94, -78.56, -7.92%) is near the bottom of the average after posting a Q3 earnings miss and narrowing its EBITDA outlook, with investors overlooking solid revenue and guidance raises amid concerns about margins and slowing rental demand.
Gold jumps nearly 2% to record $4,145 as rate-cut bets and safe-haven demand drive buying
23-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow +185.41 at 46775.61, Nasdaq +238.87 at 22979.29, S&P +47.21 at 6746.60
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours left on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+1.05%) is in first place, up about 238 points.
Gold futures settled $80.20 higher (+1.9%) at $4,145.60/oz, as investors bet on Fed rate cuts and sought safety amid persistent geopolitical and fiscal risks. Analysts said central-bank buying and dollar weakness added to the rally, though some warned of near-term volatility after the sharp move.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up less than +0.1% to $98.99.
American Airlines narrows losses and upgrades Q4 outlook amid unit revenue recovery (AAL)
American Airlines’ (AAL) 3Q25 earnings report delivered several positive surprises, echoing trends seen with its peers Delta Airlines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL), but also showing signs of distinct recovery strength and operational improvement. AAL exceeded Q3 EPS expectations with EPS of $(0.17), which was toward the upper end of prior guidance and mainly driven by stronger-than-expected revenue performance. More importantly, AAL issued robust Q4 EPS guidance of $0.45 to $0.75 -- over two times higher than the midpoint of prior guidance -- which is also notable given that last quarter’s Q3 EPS outlook badly missed consensus and sent shares tumbling.
- Unit revenue (TRASM) improved to (1.9)% from Q2’s (2.7)%, with domestic TRASM rebounding and September posting positive growth.
- Capacity growth (ASMs) slowed to 2.3% vs 3.2% prior quarter, aiding pricing.
- Premium cabin outperformed with premium unit revenue beating main cabin by 5 pts. Premium paid load factor hit nearly 80%.
- AAdvantage Loyalty active accounts were up 7% and co-branded card spend up was up 9%. Chicago enrollments surged by 20%.
- Main cabin demand is rebounding with strong holiday bookings and Q4 unit revenue guided flat.
- The balance sheet improved with debt down by $1.2 bln and liquidity at $10.3 bln. Free cash flow is expected to exceed $1 bln in 2025.
- AAL is narrowing the competitive gaps but remains behind DAL and UAL in PRASM and efficiency.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
AAL posted encouraging Q3 results and a sharp Q4 guidance upgrade, showing progress after lagging peers. While premium and loyalty are now core earnings drivers, unit revenue remains mildly negative and efficiency gaps persist versus DAL and UAL. Execution in Q4 and beyond is key for valuation upside, but AAL remains riskier than top competitors given its track record.
Lam Research Stays True to Form in Q1; Beats Expectations as AI Spend Remains a Tailwind (LRCX)
Lam Research (LRCX) is trading higher today after beating expectations and issuing upside guidance in its Q1 (Sep) report last night. The company extended its streak of 3+ years of EPS beats, while revenue rose 27.7% yr/yr to a record $5.32 bln. Q2 guidance calls for EPS of $1.05-1.25 and revenue of $4.9-5.5 bln.
- Embedded in the Q2 guidance is a $200 mln hit from new China restrictions, with about $600 mln expected in CY26; still, guidance was above forecasts as global multinationals offset China declines.
- WFE spending is tracking slightly above the prior $105 bln view, aided by stronger HBM investments. Noted that CY26 setup looks robust for equipment spending, with AI demand sustaining strength in foundry/logic, DRAM, and NAND upgrades.
- Management frames AI data center capex as a durable tailwind; with deposition/etch at the core, LRCX sees billions of dollars in SAM expansion and share gain opportunities.
- NAND upgrades represent about $40 bln in WFE spend as bit demand rises; noted that cleanroom limits may speed new builds and feels well positioned for AI-driven foundry and DRAM inflections.
- Foundry made up 60% of systems revenue (up from 52% in JunQ), marking a third straight record quarter, driven by leading-edge and mature node spending.
- Memory was 34% (down from 41%) as NAND (18%) softened on customer timing, while DRAM (16%) rose on continued HBM demand tied to AI.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
LRCX stayed true to form this quarter, beating expectations and leaning bullish on a strong multi-year growth setup fueled by AI infrastructure buildouts. Management's tone was notably confident, highlighting higher WFE expectations, robust bit demand, and an expanding SAM tied to deposition and etch leadership. While China headwinds persist, global multinationals are expected to "more than offset" the decline, with sustained tailwinds across memory and foundry segments reinforcing its positioning in the AI cycle.
IBM Q3 Results Compute Strong Gains — But Red Hat Deceleration Worries Investors A Bit (IBM)
IBM (IBM) is pulling back despite posting strong Q3 upside results, echoing the reaction seen after Q2. The company delivered its largest EPS beat since 2Q24, with revenue up 9.1% yr/yr (+7% CC) to $16.33 bln, its strongest constant currency growth in several years. All segments accelerated sequentially.
IBM did not provide specific Q4 guidance but said it's "comfortable with consensus estimates." It slightly raised FY25 targets, now expecting revenue growth of "more than +5% CC" (vs. "at least +5% CC") and FCF of ~$14 bln (vs. >$13.5 bln).
- Software rose 10% yr/yr (+9% CC) to $7.21 bln, led by Automation (+22% CC). Red Hat slowed to +12% CC from +14% CC, though IBM cited 20% signings growth and expects a return to mid-teens growth next year.
- Consulting grew +2% CC, returning to positive territory after a flat Q2 performance.
- Infrastructure jumped 17% (+15% CC), driven by IBM Z up 59% CC, its best Q3 in nearly 20 years, fueled by the new z17 platform.
Despite the solid results, investors appear uneasy about Red Hat's deceleration, limited guidance increases, and possible FX tailwinds boosting results. With the stock up sharply in recent months, profit-taking and high expectations likely contributed to the pullback.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
IBM's Q3 results showcased genuine operational momentum, particularly in Infrastructure and Automation, underscoring the company's ongoing reinvention as a hybrid cloud and AI player. However, investors are rightly cautious about Red Hat's slowdown — a key pillar of IBM's long-term AI growth story. While management's commentary on future signings for Red Hat is reassuring, the market may want to see clear evidence of reacceleration before re-rating the stock. The company's "comfortable with consensus" language and modest guidance lift also temper enthusiasm. Overall, IBM remains a solid execution story with improving fundamentals, but after a strong run and amid uncertainty around Red Hat's trajectory, investors may prefer to wait for a better entry point.
Tesla misses on EPS again as lower ASPs, tariff pressures, and higher AI spending hit profits (TSLA)
Tesla’s (TSLA) Q3 results were a mixed bag: the company returned to top-line growth after two quarters of declines but missed on EPS for the third time in four quarters, pressured by weaker margins, higher operating costs as it ramps AI and robotics, tariff-related expense, and a sharp drop in high-margin regulatory credit revenue. Revenue of $28.09 bln beat expectations, and deliveries were a quarterly record, but the upside in sales was mainly the result of timing (tax-credit pull-forward) rather than a clean reacceleration of organic demand.
- EPS missed estimates as gross margin fell 185 bps to 18.0%, hurt by lower ASPs, a $400 mln tariff hit, 50% higher opex from AI and robotics investments, and a 44% drop in EV regulatory credits.
- Revenue rose nearly 12% yr/yr to $28.09 bln, topping expectations and ending a streak of revenue declines.
- Q3 deliveries of 497,099 jumped 29% qtr/qtr as buyers rushed to capture expiring EV tax credits, setting up a weaker Q4 and 1Q26.
- Energy generation and storage revenue surged 44% to $3.4 bln, with storage deployments up 81% to 12.5 GWh on strong Megapack and Powerwall demand.
- TSLA expects Cybercab volume production in 2026 and plans Robotaxi pilot tests in 8-10 metro markets by year-end.
- Production lines for the Optimus humanoid robot are being installed as TSLA moves toward scaled manufacturing.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
TSLA’s top-line rebound was largely driven by timing and not organic demand, while profitability trends moved in the wrong direction. The company’s heavy spending on AI, robotics, and autonomous mobility adds long-term potential but near-term margin risk. With deliveries likely to slow following the tax-credit pull-forward, TSLA’s lofty valuation rests increasingly on successful execution of ambitious projects like Robotaxi and Optimus rather than core vehicle growth. Investors may grow less patient if margin recovery doesn’t materialize quickly, particularly given higher competition from Chinese EV makers. Overall, the Q3 report underscores a transition phase for TSLA -- shifting from a high-growth automaker to a broader AI and robotics platform, but one facing growing execution and valuation challenges.
Meta Platforms partners with Blue Owl to build huge Hyperion data center to power AI growth (META)
Meta Platforms (META) announced a major joint venture with Blue Owl Capital (OWL) to develop and own the Hyperion data center campus in Louisiana, marking a key milestone in META’s AI infrastructure expansion strategy. Funds managed by OWL will own an 80% interest, while META will retain 20%, with both parties contributing their respective share of the $27 bln required to build, operate, and power the facility.
- The Hyperion campus, expected to be completed by 2030, will span about 4 mln square feet, making it META’s largest data center to date.
- The facility will support and accelerate the training of META’s Llama large language model (LLM) and other AI workloads that underpin META’s growing suite of AI-powered tools and services.
- META’s AI investments are already paying off -- Q2 revenue rose 22% yr/yr, driven by higher ad impressions and increased average price per ad. AI systems like Advantage+, Andromeda, and GEM have significantly improved ad targeting and advertiser ROI.
- The joint venture structure reduces META’s upfront capital burden while transferring partial ownership and control to OWL, a tradeoff that allows META to preserve capital for other AI and product initiatives.
- The deal positions META competitively in the global AI infrastructure race, following Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) recent $15 bln data center investment in India and OpenAI’s $1 trillion+ compute capacity agreements.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
META’s joint venture with OWL represents a savvy balance between growth and capital discipline. By partnering with an experienced infrastructure investor, META secures the funding and expertise needed to execute one of the largest data center projects ever undertaken while keeping its balance sheet flexible. The move underscores META’s commitment to scaling its AI capabilities, particularly around Llama and its next-generation ad platforms, without stretching resources thin. While META sacrifices some control over the project, the long-term strategic payoff -- faster AI model training, improved ad efficiency, and sustainable infrastructure growth -- appears well worth the trade. In the broader AI arms race, this partnership helps ensure META remains a formidable contender alongside GOOG, Microsoft (MSFT), and OpenAI.
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