So I asked Grok to do its own analysis, not just average the analyst estimates and to incorporate the latest Intel estimates into its own estimates. This is the answer:
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Based on my analysis of AMD's recent performance trends, including their Q2 2025 results (record revenue of approximately $7.7 billion, driven by 14% YoY growth in Data Center to $3.2 billion amid strong EPYC demand and AI accelerator ramps, despite MI308 export restrictions to China), historical sequential growth patterns (typically 10-15% QoQ in strong quarters fueled by data center expansions), and broader market dynamics in semiconductors, I project the following for AMD's Q3 2025 non-GAAP results. This incorporates Intel's just-reported Q3 2025 results ($13.7 billion revenue, up only 3% YoY, beating expectations by ~4% but reflecting slower overall growth and share losses in data center/AI segments where AMD is gaining traction with products like MI350 GPUs).
AMD's outperformance relative to Intel in AI-driven areas (e.g., double-digit Data Center growth vs. Intel's stagnation) supports a modest upside to their own Q3 guidance midpoint of $8.7 billion.
Metric Grok's Estimate Rationale
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Total Revenue
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$8.85 billion
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Slightly above guidance midpoint, factoring in continued AI demand momentum (MI350 ramp-up expected to contribute meaningfully), QoQ growth from Q2's $7.7B, and AMD's market share gains against Intel's tepid 3% YoY increase.
Risks include any lingering export issues, but offset by robust enterprise/cloud adoption.
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EPS
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$1.20
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Assumes non-GAAP gross margin holds at ~54% per guidance, with operating leverage from higher revenue scale. This builds on Q2 trends and anticipates EPS expansion from AI efficiencies, exceeding analyst views slightly due to Intel's results signaling competitor weakness.
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For Q4 2025 revenue guidance (which I assume is intended, as Q4 2024 is historical), I anticipate AMD will issue a midpoint of approximately $9.4 billion (range: $9.1-9.7 billion). This reflects expected sequential acceleration ( ~6-8% QoQ from my Q3 estimate) driven by holiday-season client boosts, further MI355/MI350 shipments, and full-year double-digit growth targets amid AI infrastructure buildouts.
Intel's Q4 outlook (not detailed in reports but implied stable/low growth) further bolsters AMD's relative positioning for upward guidance revisions. |
