Based on Intel CC, I am expecting strong datacenter CPU and client CPU sales, could be beyond what AMD anticipated during the last CC.
CPUs revenue from both segments are big numbers and that's where I expect the upside to come from this quarter and it will also be big numbers.
Intel also said that they will be capacity constrained well into Q1 and Q2 2026. This could be the time when excellent relations between AMD and TSMC could bear some fruit. Especially, apparently personal friendship between C.C. Wei and Lisa. Hopefully, TSMC will find the capacity for AMD.
It could even be Arizona produced Gorgon Point (refresh) CPUs, which would be quite a coup for AMD, just like Arizona produced Blackwell for NVidia.
Now that I am thinking about it, people wonder why Lisa is giving keynote at CES with nothing noteworthy being announced (such as Zen 6 and Mi450). It could be Arizona produced Gorgon Point laptop CPUs.
If Intel's plan is to take a percentage of notebook market share from TSMC and shift it to Intel fabs, why not pre-empt it (by TSMC) by finding capacity for AMD while Intel is short capacity?
AMD probably has a good handle on Mi355, so that's probably going to meet expectations this Q, since it just started shipping.
With Mi355 ramping quite well and being competitive with B200. AMD could keep up with growth of the market or even exceed the AI growth. AMD is pricing the Mi355 competitively to gain more share, we may get nice revenue guidance upside, even if without astronomical margins.
One big area that has been holding back GMs is the client (notebook) market, and mostly because of insufficient market share. Any gain in market share, any gain in unit shipment, increases client gross margins. So we could see those margins rising.
Gaming is probably going to be a non-story this Q, maybe some uptick in Q4.
Xilinx should finally start to grow. All those design wins AMD has been talking about should turning into revenue... |
