I am learning quite a bit from listening the Steve Eisman podcasts, much appreciated, according to various guests., hedge funds are now paying for and getting access to almost real time date on credit card transactions , that puts the rest of us at a disadvantage. they are also managing their risk exposured by having groups of pods each of whom may manage say $500mm. but if they experience a decline of 3-5% , they may be told that they now have only $250 mmm to manage which forces them immediately liquidate half of their portfolio that is one of the reason for seemingly over reactions in the market to unfavorable news or results. Eisman mentioned that unemployment among younger people( not sure exactly what that means ) is now 11%. and AI is already impacting advertising and media jobs, I suspect it may gut bank jobs and financial services as well. It seem pretty clear that almost all the growth in the economy is coming from ai spend and increases in stock market portfolios. Another of the guests on the show made the comment that the Trump policies will reduce the inflow of immigrants by 2 million and foreign student by at least 250k. that will further reduce growth.
OT the Target I go to and the Costco are less than a mile from each other and the difference could not be more striking. You walk into Target and you are sure there is a recession, parking lot less than half full , few shoppers, at best one register being manned, few employees in sight, You go to costco and there is alway difficulty finding a parking place. lots of shoppers lots of employees. |
