The Gambling Epidemic - this came up on my YT feed. He's right. We're slightly screwed, for lack of a better word.
Perspective is getting difficult in these times but I don't see how this doesn't end in disaster.
At the same time, is this the most well documented/predicted crash ever?
The Times (UK mainstream newspaper) alone has so many "doomer" articles (see image below).
And then there's also the people around me. Remember I'm 21. I'm meant to be dumb and reckless. So are my friends. But, well, we're all cautious:
My two friends who studied computer science at uni both called AI a bubble, whilst applying to the AI firms for work. Another friend who works at a tech/AI recruitment consultancy firm reckons he'll be out of a job in two years since clients are behaving so recklessly. My friend's older brother who runs a tech startup says VC firms are sitting on more cash than they know what to do with. My uncle told me his pub friends reckon we're heading for a stock market crash.
None of these people have any "right" to call it a bubble. They're averagely smart in the financial space and certainly wouldn't know how to read a balance sheet. But common sense just isn't prevailing.
Have we really got this stupid? I reckon the world knows it too, but keeps playing cos everyone's making money. No-one believes in AI generating real cash returns. They're relying on the greater fool theory. But eventually there will be a limit.
Otoh, if AI does make real breakthroughs perhaps they'll look like geniuses which will bring about FOMO from the more watchful lot resulting in more speculative mania...
Who knows how this ends lol?
But I do expect a big crash in the next few years. Bigger than dotcom. Truly insane times.
And the macro I haven't even touched - tariff threats, geopolitical tensions, corporate debt maturities in '26, private credit, consumer sentiment decline (see Kraft Heinz) ... - maybe these all work out.
Macro always looks rubbish. I remember late 2022/early 23. It looked bleak then.
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