A Few Thoughts About the Russian End Game in Ukraine and the Risk of Losing the Peace
Posted on October 31, 2025 by Yves Smith
There seems to be an emerging consensus among the YouTube commentators who are particularly inflential in shaping US/advanced economy perceptions among anti-globalists and other US hegemony skeptics and oppents. Many are coming to the position articulated early by Mark Sleboda, who has been the most accurate in projecting the pace of the conflict, that Russia would have to take all of Ukraine, if nothing else because NATO officials and key EU political leaders have regularly and rabidly maintained that they will arm/rearm Ukraine even in the event of an apparent defeat. So the only secure and durable remedy to that, from the Russian side, is to make sure no US/NATO/EU-aligned Ukraine survives the war. That in turn would seem to require that Russia secures all of Ukraine’s current territory, by some combination of securing votes in the Russia-receptive oblasts to join Russia plus occupation or installatiom of a friendly regime in rump Ukraine. While I am in no position to observe directly, the tone of commentary supports the idea that Russian citizens more and more favor aggressive prosecution of the conflict, has been frustrated with Putin’s dalliances with Trump, and subduing/controlling all of Ukraine.
Even though occupying or otherwise dominatinng the entirety of Ukraine would entail more costs than other solutions, it is arguably the least bad result for Russia. But even so, Mark Sleboda has warned that that outcome might not be unwelcome form of Russia victory to the West: “We’ll make you choke on it.”
But even in this “subjugate all of Ukraine” assumption, there are a lot of ways to skin that cat. John Mearshimer has long argued that what Russia wants as an end-state is a dysfunctional rump Ukraine. That presumably includes Russia taking historically Russia-leaning Odessa1 to render what is left of Ukraine landlocked.
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A Few Thoughts About the Russian End Game in Ukraine and the Risk of Losing the Peace | naked capitalism
I think Mearsheimer's outlook has been the one long held by many analysts in the War/State programs working on the situation. I have a close relative who is in that position and has long ago stated the same outcome would result. Others who have a vested interest in the outcome of the war are still pushing a different picture. |
