The Trump Administration’s Claims Regarding Cocaine and Fentanyl Trafficking from Venezuela Don’t Make Sense.
1 November 2025 by Larry C. Johnson
sonar21.com
The first boat off the coast of Venezuela that the Trump administration bombed was a 60-foot cigarette boat with four outboard motors, with 11 passengers onboard and allegedly carrying an unspecified amount of cocaine and/or fentanyl. That story simply does not make sense because a cigarette boat with 11 passengers can only safely carry a maximum of one ton of cocaine or fentanyl without jeopardizing the stability of the boat in the ocean. A cigarette boat is designed for speed, which is compromised when it is carrying three times the normal crew.
It is true that cigarette boats and fishing vessels have been used in the past to smuggle cocaine into the Florida Keys in the United States using a route that follows curved path to avoid detection and use island waypoints:
- Venezuela ? Curaçao/Aruba (~80–120 nm)
- Curaçao ? Jamaica (~450 nm)
- Jamaica ? Cayman Islands (~250 nm)
- Cayman Islands ? Key West (~300 nm)
Total via island-hopping: ~1,300–1,400 nm
But it is also true that DEA and the US Coast Guard have intercepted such boats in the past, and have arrested the crew who are then flown to the US and incarcerated after a trial. I askedGROK to estimate the safe cocaine load capacity for a 60-Foot Cigarette Boat with 11 Persons… Here’s the answer:
A 60-foot cigarette boat (also known as a “go-fast” boat) is a high-performance, V-hulled powerboat designed primarily for speed (up to 60+ knots) and offshore racing, not heavy cargo hauling. These vessels, popularized in the 1960s–1980s, have a slender, lightweight fiberglass or composite construction optimized for agility and evasion rather than stability under maximum loads. Typical dry weight: 20,000–30,000 lbs (9–14 metric tons). Fuel capacity: 800–1,000 gallons (up to ~6,000–7,500 lbs or 3–3.5 tons at 6.8 lbs/gallon). Engine setups often include 4–6 outboards (e.g., 400–600 hp each), adding 2,000–4,000 lbs.
“Safety” on the ocean implies maintaining seaworthiness in moderate conditions (e.g., 4–6 ft seas, Beaufort 5 winds), with factors like trim, center of gravity, and handling preserved to avoid swamping, capsizing, or loss of control. Overloading reduces speed, increases fuel burn, and heightens risks—smugglers often push limits, but “safe” means staying below 70–80% of theoretical max payload to account for waves, crew movement, and emergencies. The 11 persons (assuming ~185 lbs each including gear = ~2,035 lbs or 0.92 metric tons) already consume significant capacity, leaving room primarily for fuel and light cargo.
Estimated Maximum Safe Payload CalculationBoat capacity isn’t strictly regulated for vessels >20 ft like cigarette boats, but naval architects use displacement-based formulas: Max Load = (Length × Beam × Draft × Block Coefficient × Water Density) – Hull/Engine Weight. For a 60 ft cigarette:
- Typical beam: 12–14 ft; draft: 2–3 ft; block coefficient: 0.4–0.5 (slender hull).
- Approximate lightship displacement: 25,000 lbs (11.3 tons).
- Gross displacement (fully loaded): ~40,000–50,000 lbs (18–23 tons) for ocean stability.
- Usable payload (after hull/engines): 15,000–25,000 lbs (6.8–11.3 tons), but this includes fuel.
Normally, a cigarette boat would have a crew of three to four persons… Subtracting crew and full fuel tanks (~7 tons total) leaves ~3–6 tons theoretical cargo space. However, for safe ocean transit (e.g., 500–1,000 nm runs in the Caribbean/Pacific) the recommended safe cargo limit is 1–2 metric tons (2,200–4,400 lbs). This keeps the boat at 50–60% load factor, preserving 40+ knot speeds and maneuverability. Beyond this, the high center of gravity from stacked bales risks instability in beam seas. An 11-member crew is high for a 60 ft cigarette. At 185 lbs/person, that’s ~10% of payload, which reduces cargo to <1 ton safely.
The question that US politicians and US citizens should be asking is whether the President can order boats suspected of ferrying illegal narcotics be destroyed without confirming they are carrying a large quantity of drugs? Using military force against persons who are not shooting at US military or law enforcement personnel is a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions. Drug trafficking is a law enforcement and criminal matter, not an act of war. As such, the Conventions do not apply to anti-drug operations, and they explicitly do not authorize lethal force against suspected drug carriers in peacetime or non-conflict scenarios. Although the Conventions make no mention of narcotics, smuggling, or narco-terrorism, drug control falls under separate treaties like the UN Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (1988), which emphasizes arrest, prosecution, and international cooperation—not lethal action.
The Conventions only govern situations of “armed conflict.” Common Article 3 (applicable to non-international conflicts) and the Fourth Geneva Convention (protecting civilians in wartime) focus on non-combatants, wounded soldiers, and POWs. Drug suspects are civilians under IHL, protected from violence unless they directly participate in hostilities (e.g., armed combat). Carrying drugs does not qualify as “hostile activity” under the Conventions.
While Trump’s orders to destroy these boats is celebrated by the majority of US legislators, it marks a descent of the US government into a realm of lawlessness. Taking a human life just because you believe someone is engaged in illegal activity is not only a gross, despicable violation of the Constitutional order that is supposed to limit the power of the government, it also is a desecration of universal moral codes. I am ashamed of my government. |
