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Technology Stocks : Research Frontiers (REFR)
REFR 1.890-1.0%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ronald Aguilar who wrote (684)2/25/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Paul M.  Read Replies (1) of 50253
 
I listened during the conference call. Mr. Saxe pointed out that a 1 percent market penetration of the smart windows market implies royalties on 200 million square feet at 50 cents to 1 dollar per sq ft. This would give us 100 to 200 million dollars of royalty income per year, or about 10 to $20 per share.

Somebody later asked him how much he thought the glass would cost. He talked about liquid crystal glass costing 80 to $100 per sq ft, and said SPD glass would be much lower. He estimated an initial cost of $50 per sq ft. If the royalty is between 4 and 10%, we will get 2 to $5 per sq ft, which is considerably higher than 50 cent to a dollar per sq ft which occurs further down the road when 1 percent penetration is reached.

My point is big earnings will hit the bottom line long before we get the 1 percent penetration. Furthermore, he hinted that 1 percent penetration was conservative. If this turns out to be the case, we are in for the ride of a lifetime.
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