Cardboard Checkup?
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.
Everything in our world gets stored, packed, or shipped in cardboard in some form or fashion. So what if I told you that cardboard demand just hit the lowest level in over a decade? I am gonna show you what I found...
Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day.
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5 Signs That a Bubble Market’s About to Pop
I want to tell you a story today about a guy named Chad. Chad’s a “savvy investor.” You know the type. He’s got the Patagonia vest, the Allbirds, and a Robinhood account that’s perpetually glowing green.
He made a killing on Dogecoin, obviously. His secret? He just does the opposite of whatever Jim Cramer says. A bold strategy, Cotton — let’s see if it pays off for him.
Lately, Chad’s been all in on AI. He’s got his life savings in a company that promises to use artificial intelligence to disrupt the artisanal toast industry. He’s not entirely sure what they do, but their ticker symbol is AVO, and their CEO wears a black turtleneck, so it’s gotta be a winner, right?
Now, I’m not here to make fun of Chad. OK, maybe a little. But the truth is, we’re all a little bit like Chad right now. We’re living in a market that feels like a party that’s gone on a little too long. The music is still playing but the sun is coming up, and you’re starting to wonder if that’s actually champagne you’re drinking or just flat ginger ale.
Hartnett’s Five Market Tells
A little birdie from Bank of America, a fella by the name of Michael Hartnett, just slipped us a note. It’s a list of five things to watch for — five little “tells” that the party’s about to end and the bouncer is about to kick us all to the curb. And you know me — I love a good list, especially when it comes with a side of potential profits.
Hartnett says the first sign comes when the bankers get too happy. If the BKX index goes above 140, it’s a sign that the guys who are supposed to be the responsible adults in the room are starting to get a little too giddy. Well, guess what? We’re already there.
The bankers are doing the conga line on their desks.
Next, the tech guys get cocky. Hartnett says to watch the difference in borrowing costs between tech companies and everyone else. If that gap gets too wide — over 100 basis points — it means the tech crowd is borrowing money like it’s going out of style.
And why are they borrowing so much? To build the AI dream, of course. Oracle, one of the big players in the AI space, just took on $18 billion in debt to build a massive cloud computing facility for OpenAI — a facility that will require the power of 2.25 Hoover Dams.
You heard that right. Two and a quarter Hoover Dams for a project that’s being paid for with money that OpenAI doesn’t even have yet. It’s like buying a fleet of Lamborghinis on a credit card with a 25% interest rate, hoping you’ll win the lottery to pay it all off.
What could possibly go wrong?
Hartnett also says to keep an eye on junk bonds. If the JNK ETF drops below $80, it means even the most risk-hungry investors are starting to get nervous. We’re not there yet, but it’s something to watch.
He points to Bitcoin too. If it drops below $100,000, it’s a sign that the speculative fever is breaking. Bitcoin is hovering just above that level now — like a Jenga tower with one too many blocks pulled out.
And then there’s what Hartnett calls the “Gen Z put.” An entire generation of young people, staring down the barrel of AI-induced job losses, has decided the only way to maintain their standard of living is to gamble on stocks and crypto.
They’re not investing, they’re playing the lottery. Their financial nihilism is actually propping up the market. But what happens when they start losing their jobs and can’t afford to buy the dip?
That’s the million-dollar question.
Where Smart Money Moves
So, what’s a savvy investor to do? Do we all just sell everything and hide in a bunker with a year’s supply of canned beans? Of course not. That’s what Chad would do.
We’re smarter than that.
Hartnett gives us a few ideas. He says gold and Chinese stocks are good hedges against a bubble. If you’re feeling particularly bearish, you could even short those hyperscaler bonds we talked about earlier — though that’s a pro move, not for the faint of heart.
But here’s the real gem. Hartnett says that if we get a recession, the best place to be is in the sectors that have been beaten down the most — homebuilders, real estate and retail.
Think of it as dumpster diving for diamonds. When everyone else is panicking, that’s when you find the real bargains.
So there you have it — the five signs the sky might be falling and a few ideas on how to build a financial ark to ride out the storm. Don’t be a Chad. Do your own research. And for the love of all that is holy, diversify your portfolio beyond artisanal toast.
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
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| | | | I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!
And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! | | | | |
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| | | | Ignore the Market’s Intricate Patterns at Your Own Peril…
If you’ve spent any time studying the market, you'd know it moves in patterns.
Daily, weekly, even hourly… you’ll find certain setups that repeat themselves like clockwork.
Some trigger right before an explosive move, and others right after.
And the traders who have an advantage are the ones who know how to spot those repeating patterns... and act fast when they show up.
That’s exactly what I’ve done with my latest breakthrough: CashBot.
It’s a new type of trading engine built to exploit a “timed advantage” hidden deep inside the options market.
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And after months of backtesting, it’s finally ready for traders like you to use.
I went LIVE with Jack Carter recently to walk through exactly how it works... and since then, requests to get access haven’t stopped coming in.
You still have a window to see it in action and learn how it spots opportunities most traders never even notice.
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| | | | Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Woodside Energy Group (WDS)
This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays.
| | • | | WDS is a new potential entry. Target: 18.2 Stop below: 13.27 | | | • | | WDS has a historical win rate of 76.0% | | | • | | WDS has a profit factor of 1.84 | | | • | | WDS trades last 32 trading days on average over 25 trades since 1995. |
See the secret behind these signals here!
This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.
How the Daily Chart Setup Works
Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:
1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line.
2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months.
3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry.
I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!
You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! | | | | |
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Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me.
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