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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking
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From: S. maltophilia11/5/2025 6:01:59 PM
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....Turning to weather, Kalmaegi has reintensified as forecast, and is now at an intensity equivalent to a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 105 mph. Infrared satellite data above suggests that Kalmaegi may be intensifying further, as the eye has continued to become warmer and more centered within the thunderstorms around the center, all signs of intensification. The automated satellite intensity estimates that we talked about during Melissa are also going up fairly rapidly. It certainly would not be surprising to see Kalmaegi make category 3 intensity before it starts to encounter less favorable environmental conditions just prior to landfall in central Vietnam, which should occur about 24 hours from now and could seriously exacerbate ongoing flooding impacts there. Sadly, the death toll from Kalmaegi in the Philippines has reached at least 90.





The system trailing behind Kalmaegi is still an organizing tropical depression to the southwest of Guam this morning, but continues to look to be on track to intensify — potentially into a super typhoon — as it moves west-northwest over the next several days. Both the Google DeepMind AI and PolarWx grand ensemble continue to suggest the most likely scenario is for the landfall of an intense typhoon in Luzon late this weekend (US time).

balancedweather.substack.com
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