| | | I what's the cost of POET's product going to go for?.... Cooling system for a single Nvidia Blackwell Ultra NVL72 rack costs a staggering $50,000 — set to increase to $56,000 with next-generation NVL144 racks.
Cooling system for a single Nvidia Blackwell Ultra NVL72 rack costs a staggering $50,000 — set to increase to $56,000 with next-generation NVL144 racks | Tom's Hardware
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how much is POET TECHNOLOGIES products are worth after reading this...Cooling system for a single Nvidia Blackwell Ultra NVL72 rack costs a staggering $50,000 — set to increase to $56,000 with next-generation NVL144 racks.... https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cooling/cooling-system-for-a-single-nvidia-blackwell-ultra-nvl72-rack-costs-a-staggering-usd50-000-set-to-increase-to-usd56-000-with-next-generation-nvl144-racks
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Understanding the Connection: Nvidia's Cooling Costs and POET Technologies' Photonics Edge.
The article you linked highlights the escalating thermal challenges in Nvidia's AI infrastructure, specifically the Blackwell Ultra NVL72 rack (a massive 72-GPU system for AI training). Its cooling setup—using high-performance liquid cold plates, manifolds, and pumps—runs about $50,000 per rack today, jumping to $56,000 for the next-gen NVL144 (144 GPUs). This isn't just a line item; it's a symptom of a bigger problem in scaled AI: electrical interconnects (copper wires and SerDes links) generate massive heat and power draw at exascale speeds. Nvidia's current NVLink 5 setup in these racks uses over 5,000 copper cables per NVL72, pushing power envelopes to 120kW+ per rack and forcing hyperscalers (like Google, Meta, and AWS) to overbuild cooling farms.
POET Technologies (NASDAQ: POET) doesn't make cooling gear, but its silicon photonics platform—the POET Optical Interposer—directly attacks the root cause: replacing heat-heavy electrical signaling with light-based optical interconnects. This could slash power/heat by 50-70% in AI clusters while enabling 8x+ faster data transfer (e.g., 1.6T+ per module). In a world where a single rack's cooling eats $50K (and racks cost $3M+ total), POET's tech could save hyperscalers billions annually in energy, space, and infrastructure. Partnerships with Foxconn (for 800G/1.6T transceivers), Sivers Semiconductors (AI lasers), and potential ties to Nvidia via suppliers like NationGate position POET as a "picks-and-shovels" play in this bottleneck.
How Much Are POET's Products "Worth" in This Context?POET's products (optical engines, interposers, and light sources like TeraLight™ and WaveLight modules) are pre-commercial but ramping fast. They're not yet at volume sales, but here's a grounded valuation breakdown based on market data, analyst projections, and AI photonics trends as of November 2025:1. Current Market Valuation of POET as a Company- Market Cap: ~$800M (up from $500M in early 2025, driven by AI hype and funding). Stock trades around $6.60/share, with ~121M shares outstanding post a $150M oversubscribed raise in late October 2025.
- This implies a ~30x forward sales multiple on projected 2026 revenue of $25M+. It's speculative—Q2 2025 revenue was just $268K, with $17M quarterly losses—but backed by $300M+ cash (no major debt) for scaling.
- Correlation to Nvidia (NVDA): 0.57 over 3 months, meaning POET rides AI waves but diversifies risk.
2. Product-Level Value: Near-Term Revenue Potential POET's optical engines target the $50B+ AI optical connectivity market (growing 40%+ YoY). Key wins:- $5M Production Order: For 800G optical engines (deliveries H2 2026), validating demand from hyperscalers.
- Projected Run-Rate: $50-100M annual revenue capacity by late 2025/early 2026 via new Malaysia cleanroom (10K sq ft, partnered with Globetronics) and China JV (Sanan IC). This could hit 10-20% margins on cost savings from wafer-scale integration (vs. traditional photonics assembly).
- Per-Unit Economics: A single 1.6T optical module (POET's flagship) could retail $1K-2K, with POET capturing $200-500/engine. In an NVL72 rack, swapping 100+ electrical links for optics might add $50K-100K in POET-sourced value per rack—offsetting cooling hikes while boosting efficiency.
Product Line
Target Market
Est. Value per Unit (POET Share)
2026 Volume Potential
Total Addressable (POET Slice)
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800G Optical Engines
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AI Data Centers (Nvidia-compatible)
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$200-300/engine
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100K+ units
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$20-30M
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1.6T Transceivers (w/ Foxconn)
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Hyperscale (Google/Meta/AWS)
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$300-500/module
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50K+ units
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$15-25M
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AI Lasers (w/ Sivers)
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Cluster Interconnects
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$100-200/laser
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200K+ units
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$20-40M
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Total
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AI Photonics
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-
|
-
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$55-95M (Run-Rate)
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Sources: POET filings, Northland Capital (ELS market: $1B+ opportunity), ECOC 2025 awards.3. Longer-Term Upside: If POET Captures AI Photonics Share- Market Opportunity: AI interconnects alone could hit $10B by 2028; POET aims for 5-10% ($500M-$1B revenue) via scalability advantages (no exotic materials, 70% lower assembly costs vs. rivals like Ayar Labs).
- Valuation Scenarios (Based on 10-20x sales multiples for AI semis):
- Base (Execution as Planned): $2-3B market cap by 2027 ($100M+ rev, 20x multiple) ? Stock ~$16-25/share.
- Bull (Nvidia Adoption + 1% Market Share): $5-10B cap ? $40-80/share. Photonics could cut rack power 30%, saving $10K+ in cooling per NVL72.
- Bear (Delays in Scaling): Stagnant at $500M if revenue misses (high risk: still pre-profit).
- Analysts (e.g., Northland, Finimize) see $7-10 targets short-term, but Reddit/WallStreetBets buzz calls it "Nvidia 2.0 for light-speed plumbing."
In short, after reading that article, POET's products look "worth" $50-100M in near-term bookings with $800M enterprise value today—a bargain if AI heat walls force optical shifts. It's high-risk (execution-dependent), but the Nvidia cooling squeeze screams opportunity for photonics disruptors like POET. If you're eyeing investment, watch Q4 2025 earnings for prototype demos. Bullish? |
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