There are still 18 months to go before the next French presidential election, set to mark the end of the Macron era. Although the candidates are not yet known at this stage, there is a clear trend in favour of the Rassemblement National (RN), which is pulling ahead of its opponents, whoever they may be….

But the RN’s seemingly unassailable dominance is paralysing many, who are unable to envisage a strategic alliance that could lead to victory. The rivalries that had culminated in 2022 during the previous election have not been overcome, far from it. Alongside the RN, polemicist Éric Zemmour, who had launched his own movement, Reconquête, garnering success with the media but not at the polls, is preparing to run again. In an interview with BFM TV on November 2nd, he suggested that his partner and campaign manager, Sarah Knafo, could run in his place, given the strong support she currently enjoys among part of the right-wing electorate. “It’s quite extraordinary to see this woman, who was unknown to the public 18 months ago, now credited with 6 or 6.5% in the presidential polls,” he explained, not without bias. Sarah Knafo is actually polling better than Zemmour himself.

The essayist also said he was open to the idea of organising an expanded primary within the French right wing in an attempt to reach a consensus on a single candidate. The idea resurfaces with every election and has so far failed every time.

On the Left, at least in rhetoric, the reflexes of unity are much stronger. The figures announced for the RN trigger alarmist rhetoric among activists who are replaying the well-known tune— going on for 90 years—of the need for an “anti-fascist coalition.” Worryingly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, president of the far-left party La France Insoumise, who had suffered in the polls due to the outrageous and antisemitic remarks made by his party, seems to be holding his own, fuelling his ambitions to once again appear as the leading candidate of the Left.