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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!

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To: Sean Collett who wrote (271)	11/10/2025 10:19:41 AM
From: Sean Collett	of 291

Headline this morning - BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Pain "About a month ago, BlackRock Inc. deemed the private debt it had extended to Renovo Home Partners, a struggling home improvement company, to be worth 100 cents on the dollar. As of last week, the firm had a new assessment: zero." This is the crux of the issue "while the Renovo debt represents a sliver of total assets for the three lenders, its sudden collapse strikes at the heart of what critics see as a major vulnerability in the private credit market: the disconnect between the valuation of illiquid loans and the performance of the underlying companies.". When it starts to fall apart it starts fast and there's no telling where the zombies are because of the layers of lending and weak standards. $150M here via Renovo and $500M there with HPS and that's just $650M written off credit books in a few weeks. What other surprises does the credit market have for us? Just a few weeks ago the Renovo debt was being marked as PAR! I find it interesting that KKR (PE & credit) has a stake in the fund Marshall Wace and in December 2024 Marshall Wace gave $1B to Richard Northridge for Eureka hedge fund. The money lent out into speculation sure is interesting. “There's no earthly way of knowing Which direction we are going There's no knowing where we're rowing Or which way the river's flowing Is it raining, is it snowing? Is a hurricane a-blowing? - uh! Not a speck of light is showing So the danger must be growing Are the fires of Hell a-glowing? Is the grisly reaper mowing? Yes! The danger must be growing For the rowers keep on rowing And they're certainly not showing Any signs that they are slowing! A-aa-aaa-aaaah!” - Roald Dahl -Sean

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