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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!

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To: Sean Collett who wrote (278)	11/13/2025 1:51:32 PM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (1) of 291

I continue to watch the events in private credit in amazement. Bloomberg ran this piece today on a loan for Medallia, Inc where Apollo valued the loan at $0.77 on the dollar and KKR values it at $0.91 on the dollar. Will the real slim Shady please stand up? I find two things interesting here; 1) the swing between high and low with Apollo currently valuing at $0.77 and FS KKR at $0.91 with the average price at $0.83 2) the rapid decline in the loan value since June 30th, 2024. Just June of 2025 Apollo had this priced at $0.87. Blackstone ($BX) originally led the loan which is for $1.8B and now has it marked at $0.82. "Some market participants say diverging valuations for companies coming under pressure show lenders are reaching different conclusions about how much they expect to recover on the debt and that they don’t necessarily have access to the same information from borrowers." This reminds me of something our Emcee once said to Michael Lewis “The borrowers will always be willing to take a great deal for themselves. It’s up to the lenders to show restraint, and when they lose it, watch out.” Keep your eyes on $KKR & $BX - I know I am. -Sean

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