Market Snapshot
| Dow | 47457.01 | -797.60 | (-1.65%) | | Nasdaq | 22870.38 | -536.10 | (-2.29%) | | SP 500 | 6737.48 | -113.43 | (-1.66%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 599 | Dec 2168 | Vol 1.24 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 951 | Dec 3758 | Vol 11.4 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Industrials, Financials |
Moving the Market
Mega-caps down again; broader market sees weaker participation than previous sessions
Walt Disney (DIS) down sharply following its earnings report
Hawkish Fed commentary and data delays, despite government shutdown ending, dampen December rate cut expectations
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Broad-based retreat as rate-cut odds soften, mega-caps slide further
13-Nov-25 16:25 ET
Dow -797.60 at 47457.01, Nasdaq -536.10 at 22870.38, S&P -113.43 at 6737.48
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market faced a broad-based retreat, which sent the S&P 500 (-1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.3%), and DJIA (-1.7%) firmly lower as investors grappled with diminished expectations for further Fed easing this year.
President Trump signed a bill to fund the government through January 30, ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. While some viewed the move and pending data releases as potential fuel for another rate cut, uncertainty over the timing of those reports clouds the outlook for doves ahead of the December FOMC meeting. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said some reports, such as the October employment and October CPI reports, will likely never see the light of day.
The end to the government shutdown this week was largely priced in, but the market was seemingly caught off guard by recent Fed commentary, which has leaned more hawkish.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins (voting FOMC member) said yesterday evening that "it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time," while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting FOMC member) said that the Fed "needs to lean against above-target inflation," according to Bloomberg. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who is not a voting FOMC member but will be in 2026, echoed a similar sentiment, saying policy should "remain somewhat restrictive to continue putting pressure to bring inflation down," according to Reuters.
Commentary from Fed officials combined to see a further dampening in the market's expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 51.6% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, down from 62.9% yesterday and 95.5% a month ago.
Equities retreated in response, with growth-oriented stocks incurring particularly heavy losses.
The consumer discretionary (-2.7%) and information technology (-2.4%) sectors finished with the heaviest losses as weakness in the market's largest names pushed the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.1%) to its flat line for the week.
Tesla (TSLA 401.88, -28.72, -6.67%) was a laggard among the underperforming group, falling below its 50-day moving average (428.61).
NVIDIA (NVDA 186.97, -6.83, -3.52%) and other chipmakers also posted weak performances, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index (-3.7%) into negative territory for the week.
Cisco (CSCO 77.38, +3.42, +4.62%) was a rare bright spot in the technology sector after topping earnings estimates and issuing upbeat guidance for Q2 (Jan) and FY26.
The same cannot be said for Walt Disney (DIS 107.57, -9.08, -7.78%), which was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names after a mixed earnings report that saw the company beat EPS expectations but miss on revenues, which were down 0.5% year-over-year to $22.46 billion, marking the company's first annual revenue decline since 1Q24.
Disney's loss weighed on the communication services sector (-1.7%) and contributed to the DJIA finishing with a similar loss to that of the other major averages.
Despite a recent trend of mega-cap weakness, the DJIA has been able to escape the past several sessions with solid gains as investors rotated into more value-oriented holdings.
While mega-caps certainly underperformed again, today's action reflected less of a rotation and more of a broader-market sell-off.
Eight S&P 500 sectors finished lower, and seven of those finished with losses of 1.0% or wider. Breadth figures were abysmal, with decliners outpacing advancers by a roughly 4-to-1 ratio on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
While the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-1.2%) still outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-1.7%), it too incurred a notable loss.
Only the energy sector (+0.3%) closed with a gain as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.24 higher (+0.4%) at $58.74 per barrel, a modest rebound from yesterday's 4.1% slide.
The health care sector finished flat after holding a gain wider than 1.0% earlier in the session, while the consumer staples sector also managed a flat finish.
Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.9%) incurred significant losses as the market displayed a firm risk-off posturing.
Ultimately, today's action reflected a clear shift in sentiment as investors reassessed the policy outlook and revisited concerns of stretched valuations, leaving stocks particularly vulnerable to disappointing catalysts. The broad-based retreat, along with a sharp spike in volatility (the VIX Volatility Index surged 18.0% to 20.66), underscored growing unease about the Fed's policy path and the market's ability to sustain recent gains.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Thursday, lifting yields on 10s and 30s back above their 50-day moving averages, though intraday action was largely uneventful. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.59%, the 10-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.11%, and the 30-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.70%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +18.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +14.6% YTD
- DJIA: +11.6% YTD
- Russell 2000: +6.7% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.9% YTD
Hawkish Fed commentary sends stocks lower
13-Nov-25 15:25 ET
Dow -810.50 at 47444.11, Nasdaq -592.31 at 22814.17, S&P -124.06 at 6726.85
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade steadily lower as the clock winds down on a tough session for the stock market. Only the DJIA (-1.7%), which entered today's session with a 2.7% week-to-date gain, remains in positive territory for the week.
Hawkish Fed commentary has added fuel to the sell-off as the probability for a December rate cut, which was once viewed as a near certainty, now resembles a coin flip.
Most recently, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (voting FOMC member) said that the Fed "needs to lean against above-target inflation," adding, "There's limited room for further easing without monetary policy becoming overly accommodative," according to Bloomberg.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who is not a voting FOMC member but will be in 2026, echoed a similar sentiment, saying policy should "remain somewhat restrictive to continue putting pressure to bring inflation down."
Major averages at session lows in the late afternoon
13-Nov-25 15:00 ET
Dow -739.09 at 47515.52, Nasdaq -568.51 at 22837.97, S&P -115.72 at 6735.19
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.4%), and DJIA (-1.5%) are plotting new session lows with an hour left in today's session.
Losses are swelling across the market, with seven S&P 500 sectors now holding a loss of 1.0% or wider. Today's advancing sectors are the health care (+0.2%), energy (+0.1%), and consumer staples (+0.1%) sectors, which now sit just slightly above their baselines as they too come under selling pressure this afternoon.
Additionally, the VIX Volatility Index is up 18.7% to 20.79, suggesting heightened uncertainty amid today's risk-off tone.
S&P 500 drops 1.5% as Robinhood, Super Micro, and Corning slide; LyondellBasell rises on insider buy
13-Nov-25 14:30 ET
Dow -644.63 at 47609.98, Nasdaq -549.00 at 22857.48, S&P -105.73 at 6745.18
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.54%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, down 105 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Robinhood Markets (HOOD 120.80, -12.18, -9.16%), Super Micro Computer (SMCI 35.03, -2.88, -7.60%), and Corning (GLW 82.10, -6.91, -7.76%) pepper the bottom of the standings. HOOD is lower despite announcing a partnership with Gopuff and a new Defiance 2X short ETF on HOOD under ticker "HOOZ", while GLW falls as the stock goes ex-dividend today.
Meanwhile, LyondellBasell (LYB 45.52, +2.21, +5.10%) is firmly higher after EVP K. Foley disclosed purchase of 5,661 shares worth approx. $247K.
Gold slips 1.5% to $4,150 as yields rise, Fed rhetoric tempers rate-cut hopes
13-Nov-25 14:00 ET
Dow -642.05 at 47612.56, Nasdaq -575.71 at 22830.77, S&P -108.61 at 6742.30
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-2.46%) is today's worst-performing major average, down 575 points.
Gold futures settled $63.40 lower (-1.5%) at $4,150.20/oz, as rising Treasury yields and hawkish Fed commentary dimmed hopes for near-term rate cuts, weakening demand for non-yielding assets. The drop also reflected profit-taking after this week's sharp rally, as investors reassessed bullish bets amid lingering macro uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.3% to $99.14.
Ibotta plunges as delayed CPG spending, weak consumer sentiment takes a toll on Q3 results (IBTA)
Ibotta (IBTA) topped Q3 EPS and revenue expectations, but revenue fell by 15.5% yr/yr to $83.3 mln, representing its steepest revenue decline since going public in April 2024. This decline was attributed to macroeconomic headwinds including weak consumer sentiment and CPG clients delaying spending. The stock is plunging lower following the earnings release.
- The midpoint of IBTA’s Q4 revenue guidance of $80-$85 mln is below expectations, fueling investor disappointment. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 of $9-$12 mln at midpoint represents a yr/yr decline exceeding 62%.
- Key operational metrics showed mixed signals. Quarterly redeemers on the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) increased 19% yr/yr to 18.2 mln, reflecting demand strength. However, third-party publisher redemptions fell 6% to 62.1 mln, indicating some softness in redemption frequency.
- Strategic initiatives announced include a new partnership with Circana to provide third-party sales lift measurement, allowing clients independent verification of promotional effectiveness.
- Another initiative, LiveLift, is an enhanced solution for CPG brands to optimize campaigns in real time, helping improve targeting and ROI.
- Management emphasized that these initiatives, combined with ongoing transformation of IBTA’s sales organization and product suite, position the company for future growth despite near-term challenges.
- LiveLift pilots have shown promising results with clients already expanding campaign investments after trials. Broader market adoption is expected in 2026, supported by improved AI-driven optimization and sales execution.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
IBTA’s 3Q25 results and guidance reflect clear pain points in revenue and EBITDA caused by consumer and client caution amid economic uncertainty. The robust redeemer growth juxtaposed with falling redemption volume underscores shifts in user behavior and offer dynamics. The company’s strategic pivot to outcomes-based performance marketing and enhanced measurement solutions like LiveLift and Circana partnership reflect forward-looking efforts to drive incremental sales with measurable ROI. While Q4 guidance tempers near-term optimism, management’s roadmap for broader adoption of AI-enabled campaign optimization solutions and sales execution improvements provide a potential foundation for recovery and growth in 2026. However, caution is warranted given the steep revenue contraction and sizable adjusted EBITDA decline anticipated this quarter.
Flutter Lower After Guidance Cut as Promo Pressure and Prediction Markets Shake Up the Odds (FLUT)
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is trading sharply lower today after reporting its Q3 results last night. The global online gaming operator comfortably beat EPS expectations, while revenue grew 16.8% yr/yr to $3.79 bln, roughly in line with estimates. Shares, however, have remained under pressure since Q2 amid rising concerns around competition from fast-growing prediction market platforms. Flutter also lowered its FY25 revenue outlook to $16.39-16.99 bln from $16.8-17.71 bln, with the new range landing below estimates and weighing on sentiment.
- Revenue growth was supported by a 9% increase in AMPs to 14.1 mln, driven by organic iGaming momentum and contributions from recent acquisitions like Snai and Betnacional.
- US revenue rose 9% yr/yr, led by 44% iGaming growth. Sportsbook AMP growth improved to +5% (from -4% in Q2), though sportsbook revenue declined 5% due to customer-friendly NFL outcomes and unusually heavy competitor generosity.
- International revenue rose 21% yr/yr, benefiting from acquisitions, while organic iGaming growth remained solid at +10%. Organic sportsbook revenue declined 6%, reflecting tough comps from last year.
- Despite solid top-line momentum, net loss widened sharply, primarily due to the India-related regulatory impairment charge, stepped-up investment, and the previously disclosed Boyd (BYD) payment.
- These developments set the stage for the December launch of FanDuel Predicts, marking Flutter's formal push into prediction markets, following DraftKings' (DKNG) Railbird acquisition and upcoming DraftKings Predictions app, underscoring how quickly this emerging category is becoming strategically important for both operators.
- Encouragingly, management highlighted that stepped-up Q4 investment is gaining traction, with US handle growing +10% quarter-to-date and NBA engagement off to a strong start.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The quarter itself was solid, evidenced by strong growth in US and International markets, but the full-range guidance cut is weighing on sentiment and pressuring DKNG as well. The update reinforces two investor concerns already hanging over the space: promotional intensity is rising, especially around the NFL and start of the NBA season, and prediction markets are becoming a growing competitive overhang. Both FLUT and DKNG are now formally pushing into the category, validating the threat posed by fast-growing platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. In short, while the long-term opportunity remains intact for both operators, investors are reacting to higher promo spend, temporary margin pressure, and a shifting competitive landscape, which is weighing on FLUT and sending peers like DKNG lower in sympathy.
Walt Disney's revenue disappoints as cord-cutting drags Linear Networks, clouding DTC strength (DIS)
Walt Disney (DIS) edged past Q4 EPS expectations, but missed on revenue, which was down 0.5% yr/yr to $22.46 bln, marking the company's first annual revenue decline since 1Q24. The stock is trading sharply lower following these mixed results.
- Top-line weakness stemmed mainly from ongoing pressure in the Linear Networks business. Segment revenue plunged 16% yr/yr and operating income dropped 21%, driven by cord-cutting and a persistent downturn in ad spending.
- The film slate was less robust than last year, when blockbusters like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine drove strong comps. As a result, Content Sales/Licensing revenue declined 26% to $1.90 bln.
- Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) remained a bright spot for Entertainment, with revenue up 8% to $6.25 bln and operating income surging 39% to $352 mln.
- Disney+ exceeded subscriber expectations, adding 3.8 mln for a total of 132 mln. DIS implemented another price hike in October, reflecting its emphasis of profits over subscriber growth.
- Overall, Entertainment segment revenue fell 6% to $10.2 bln. DIS guided for double-digit operating income growth in FY26 for Entertainment, supported by a strong upcoming film slate (Zootopia 2, Avatar Fire and Ash, Toy Story 5, Avengers Doomsday) and expansion of AI-powered platform features.
- Experiences posted solid results, with revenue up 6% to $8.77 bln and operating income up 13% to $1.88 bln.
- Key drivers for Experiences included robust cruise demand (utilization remained high despite added capacity), strong consumer products sales (notably the Lilo & Stitch franchise), and healthy advance domestic park bookings (up 3% for Q1).
- Sports revenue grew 2% to $3.98 bln, though operating income slipped 2% to $911 mln. The new ESPN Unlimited App launched in August was well received, attracting new digital users and boosting engagement.
- DIS captured strong advertising interest from its DTC sports assets, but faced content-driven cost pressure, notably due to NBA rights investment timing.
- DIS is targeting double-digit EPS growth in FY26, above consensus expectations for 10% growth.
- The company increased its semi-annual dividend by 50% to $1.50 per share, doubling its annual share repurchase target to $7 bln.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
DIS’s mixed quarter highlights persistent challenges in its Linear Networks segment due to secular cord-cutting and weak ad demand, offset by impressive profit gains in streaming and Experiences. The DTC pivot is yielding consistent margin improvement and subscriber retention, especially through bundled offerings like Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN, which have lowered churn rates. Experiences are benefiting from heavy cruise investment and blockbuster-driven retail, but film comps remain tough year/yr. The company’s ambitious FY26 profit guidance and capital return plans reflect growing free cash flow and a commitment to shareholder yield, but execution risks persist -- especially around film content performance and macro-driven park attendance. DIS’s streaming profitability focus, strong IP franchises, and AI-powered product roadmap support its premium narrative, but lingering headwinds in Linear and cyclical content sales merit caution until top-line growth resumes more broadly.
Cisco Switching Gears: Wires Big Gains from Hyperscaler Demand (CSCO)
Cisco Systems (CSCO +4%) is trading sharply higher after reporting Q1 (Oct) results that topped expectations and issuing upbeat guidance for Q2 (Jan) and FY26. Revenue climbed 7.5% yr/yr to $14.88 bln, modestly above estimates, while EPS also came in slightly ahead of consensus. However, the real driver behind the stock's strength is Cisco's bullish outlook, fueled by accelerating AI infrastructure demand and a multiyear networking upgrade cycle.
- Total product revenue rose 10% to $11.1 bln, while service revenue increased 2% to $3.8 bln.
- AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers reached $1.3 bln in Q1, balanced between Silicon One systems and optics, marking a sharp acceleration. Cisco expects to recognize about $3 bln in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY26.
- Networking product orders advanced in the high-teens range, the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth, driven by hyperscale infrastructure, enterprise routing, campus switching, wireless, industrial IoT, and servers.
- Cisco highlighted robust demand for Acacia's pluggable optics, which offer significant cost and power savings; all major hyperscalers are now customers.
- In campus networking, strong uptake of Cat9k switches, next-gen secure routers, and WiFi 7 products underscores a major multiyear, multibillion-dollar refresh cycle as enterprises upgrade for AI-driven workloads.
- Industrial IoT orders surged 25% yr/yr, supported by US manufacturing onshoring and the rise of edge and "physical AI" applications.
- The Security segment dipped 2% yr/yr, reflecting declines in legacy products and the ongoing transition to cloud-based Splunk subscriptions.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Cisco's results and outlook are a pleasant surprise for a company long viewed as a mature networking play. The AI infrastructure momentum, particularly among hyperscalers, gives CSCO a credible growth angle that could sustain multiple expansion. While the topline beat was modest, the underlying product demand trends—especially in optics, switching, and IoT—signal real traction. The upgraded FY26 outlook suggests management has high confidence in execution and pipeline visibility. That said, the security business remains a soft spot. Still, with Cisco's valuation (around 13x forward EPS) well below AI peers, investors may see this as an underappreciated AI infrastructure play.
Amdocs edges past Q4 EPS, but heavy AI spending dims outlook and sends shares lower (DOX)
Amdocs (DOX) edged past Q4 EPS expectations and delivered in-line revenue of $1.15 bln, but the stock is trading sharply lower following the earnings release. That weakness is largely tied to the company's disappointing EPS guidance for 1Q26 ($1.73-$1.79) and FY26 ($7.27-$7.55), both of which missed analysts' expectations.
- The downside EPS guidance is related to DOX's plan to accelerate its generative AI investments in order to open new pathways for future growth. The company stated it is also monitoring for impacts from the uncertain global macroeconomic environment.
- Generative AI investments will focus on developing a “Cognitive Core” platform -- an advanced agentic layer that integrates agent-to-agent capabilities into core BSS/OSS systems, promising new automation, improved agility, and cost efficiencies for telecom customers.
Despite the conservative guidance, DOX posted a flurry of positives:
- Cloud-related activities grew double digits and accounted for over 30% of total revenue, 12-month backlog increased 3% yr/yr to $4.19 bln, and the company ended FY25 with robust sales momentum and a healthy book of business.
- Non-GAAP operating margin expanded by 290 bps to a record 21.6% as phase-out of non-core, low-margin businesses improved overall profitability.
- The quarterly cash dividend was hiked by 8% to $0.569/share, supporting total shareholder return. Free cash flow remained strong, with a 90% conversion rate and healthy capital allocation, including significant share repurchases.
- New wins included a multi-year strategic expansion with PLDT, Google Cloud migration awards at TELUS and Lumen Technologies, and a digital transformation/IT operations agreement with Fidium, while managed services revenue reached a record 66% of annual total.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
DOX delivered a solid finish to FY25, maintaining its leadership in managed services and cloud transformation. However, the tempered FY26 EPS outlook and intentional AI spending shift reflect a pivot toward "future growth engines" at the expense of near-term earnings momentum. Investments in Cognitive Core generative AI are ambitious and could position DOX for a new growth wave, but the timing and scale of monetization remain to be proven. Positive backlog trends and margin improvements help buffer investor concerns, though caution around macro and client spending is warranted. With FY26 guidance implying modest growth and margin accretion balanced against elevated R&D, more evidence of AI-driven operational disruption may be needed before the market assigns a premium multiple.
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