Market Snapshot
| Dow | 47147.27 | -309.74 | (-0.65%) | | Nasdaq | 22900.61 | +30.23 | (0.13%) | | SP 500 | 6734.10 | -3.38 | (-0.05%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1184 | Dec 1545 | Vol 1.15 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1928 | Dec 2702 | Vol 10.91 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Information Technology, Energy, Real Estate |
| | Weak: Financials, Communication Services, Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care |
Moving the Market
--Chipmaker names leading rebound effort
--December rate-cut odds resemble a coin flip
--Buy-the-dip interest shows up after Nasdaq and S&P 500 breach their 50-day moving averages
--Mega-cap stocks rebound from opening losses
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Rebound effort steadies market after early weakness
14-Nov-25 16:25 ET
Dow -309.74 at 47147.27, Nasdaq +30.23 at 22900.61, S&P -3.38 at 6734.10
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market clawed back from steep early losses, with a tech-driven rebound lifting the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%) back above their 50-day moving averages after briefly slipping below them at the open. Mixed strength in the broader market saw the DJIA (-0.7%) close with a wider loss, though it finished well off of its session lows and joined the S&P 500 in positive week-to-date territory.
The session began much like recent ones, with mega-caps absorbing the heaviest losses and fresh hawkish Fed remarks further eroding expectations for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool now places the odds of a 25-basis-point cut at 45.9%, down from 50.1% yesterday and 94.4% a week ago. Kansas City Fed President Schmid (voting FOMC member) signaled he is inclined to oppose a December cut, echoing comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member), who said he did not support the October move and remains unsure about December.
While the major averages faced losses over 1.0%, the technology sector showed resilience, dipping only slightly beneath its flatline. That resilience soon turned to exuberance in the midmorning, as chipmakers rallied, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reclaim their 50-day moving averages and move into positive territory for the day.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.1%), which also moved beneath its 50-day moving average this morning, held gains as wide as 1.2%, though chipmakers faced some pressure this afternoon and the index closed slightly lower. Micron (MU 246.83, +9.88, +4.17%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 190.17, +3.31, +1.77%) still managed to capture solid gains, while Microsoft (MSFT 510.18, +6.89, +1.37%) and Oracle (ORCL 222.85, +5.28, +2.43%) helped the broader technology sector (+0.7%) close with a gain despite the late pressure in semiconductor names.
As many as seven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, though only three finished in positive territory.
The energy sector (+1.4%) was the day's top performer, supported by a 2.3% rebound in crude oil to $60.08 per barrel following Wednesday's 4.1% slide. The real estate sector (+0.3%) managed a more modest gain, while the industrials and utilities sectors finished flat.
Losses were relatively modest compared to early session levels, though there were a few laggards.
The materials sector (-1.2%) saw a majority of its components trade lower, while the financials sector (-1.0%) faced pressure in its major banking names.
Mixed performances across mega-cap names saw the communication services (-0.8%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) sectors finish lower for the day but well above session lows. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF closed 0.2% higher.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) captured a gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) closed lower after a stint above its baseline.
Despite some late-session weakness, the market's ability to reclaim technical levels and attract buyers in key growth areas helped stabilize sentiment. At face value, the mixed finish appears to be an underwhelming end to a tough week, but under the surface, there were signs of improving breadth and renewed dip-buying interest in semiconductors and other momentum pockets. Those dynamics helped keep the major averages anchored above support and left the broader market in a firmer position heading into next week, which will see NVIDIA report its earnings on Wednesday.
U.S. Treasuries finished a bumpy abbreviated week with losses across the curve after sliding from their opening highs. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.61% (+5 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.15% (+6 basis points this week).
- Nasdaq Composite: +18.6% YTD
- S&P 500: +14.5% YTD
- DJIA: +10.8% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.1% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.7% YTD
Major averages mixed just before the close
14-Nov-25 15:30 ET
Dow -299.51 at 47157.50, Nasdaq +68.93 at 22939.31, S&P +7.42 at 6744.90
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and DJIA (-0.6%) remain mixed as the market enters the final half hour of the session.
Politico reports that House Republicans are drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies. Humana (HUM 236.37, -0.37, -0.16%) and Elevance Health (ELV 326.44, -1.84, -0.56%) slipped below their baselines following the report, while UnitedHealth (UNH 322.00, -10.52, -3.17%) has lagged throughout the session.
Elsewhere, Alibaba (BABA 152.18, -7.66, -4.79%) continues to chart session lows after Financial Times reported that a White House national security memo sys the company is helping China's military target the U.S.
Energy sector outperforms
14-Nov-25 15:05 ET
Dow -143.50 at 47313.51, Nasdaq +153.45 at 23023.83, S&P +29.91 at 6767.39
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade mixed, a touch off of session highs as the market enters the final hour of today's session.
The energy sector (+1.4) holds the widest gain today, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $1.34 higher (+2.3%) at $60.08 per barrel. Oil prices slid 4.1% on Wednesday after OPEC announced it now projects global oil supply to match demand, after previously forecasting a deficit.
The sector's largest component, Exxon Mobil (XOM 119.39, +0.60, +0.51%), holds a modest gain, while Valero Energy (VLO 182.78, +7.00, +3.99%) holds the widest gain. Valero has broadened its year-to-date gain to an impressive 49.1%, which is better than that of any of the "magnificent seven" names.
Airline stocks facing pressure
14-Nov-25 14:35 ET
Dow -186.51 at 47270.50, Nasdaq +113.01 at 22983.39, S&P +18.81 at 6756.29
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (-0.4%) continue to trade in a mixed fashion as the afternoon progresses.
CNBC reports that the Trump administration is formally withdrawing a Biden-era proposal that would have provided passengers compensation for delayed flights.
Airline stocks, such as Delta Air Lines (DAL 58.59, -1.32, -2.20%), United Airlines (UAL 95.34, -1.83, -1.88%), and Southwest Air (LUV 32.76, -0.28, -0.86%), are under pressure today as airlines continue to navigate cancellation issues stemming from the government shutdown.
On the trade front, Bloomberg reports that President Trump will sign an order later today lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas.
Communication services sector lags
14-Nov-25 13:55 ET
Dow -215.94 at 47241.07, Nasdaq +82.91 at 22953.29, S&P +8.15 at 6745.63
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) are back near their unchanged levels, while the DJIA (-0.6%) continues to underperform.
The communication services sector (-0.8%) is at the bottom of today's leaderboard, falling back towards session lows from this morning.
Despite a relative uptick across mega-caps today, the sector faces pressure from its largest component, Alphabet (GOOG 276.99, -2.13, -0.76%).
Meanwhile, Netflix (NFLX 1116.83, -37.40, -3.24%) is the weakest performer in the sector, falling back below its 200-day moving average (1130.77). The company is preparing a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 22.86, +0.72, +3.27%), according to The Wall Street Journal. Paramount Skydance's (PSKY 15.47, +0.10, +0.63%) $23.50 per share bid was rejected, but its integration strength and DTC momentum still position it as a resilient bidder.
Comcast (CMCSA 27.49, -0.48, -1.73%) is also reportedly preparing a bid ahead of the November 20 deadline.
Beazer Homes looks more constructive after upside Q4 results amid tough homebuilding market (BZH)
Beazer Homes (BZH) easily exceeded muted analyst expectations in 4Q25, benefiting from a low bar set by disappointing recent earnings results from homebuilding peers D.R. Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), and Lennar (LEN). The company also provided encouraging guidance for FY26, targeting meaningful gross margin expansion and solid home closings growth, sparking an initial surge higher in the stock, before cooling off after the market open.
- Net new orders declined 2.9% to 999, with orders per community per month down 10.7% to 2.0, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures.
- Homebuilding gross margin, excluding impairments and amortized interest, fell 320 bps to 17.2%, weighed down by elevated incentives and a higher share of spec home sales.
- The company expects 1Q26 adjusted gross margin to hit 16%, the low point for the year, driven by strong incentives and a high proportion of spec homes closing (up to 75%).
- BZH projects a 5-10% increase in FY26 home closings, supported by community count growth and better sales pace, particularly in the second half of the year.
- Management targets about three points of gross margin improvement by 4Q26 from rebidding savings of $10,000 per home, a favorable product mix shift, and higher margins in newer communities opened since April 2025.
- Balance sheet strength remains a priority, with nearly $540 mln in liquidity, no debt maturities until 2027, ongoing share repurchases, and a disciplined land portfolio strategy focusing on higher-return assets aligned with its energy-efficient homebuilding differentiation.
- Despite macro affordability headwinds, BZH’s low total cost of ownership propositions -- including mortgage rate buy-downs, energy efficiency, and insurance savings -- position it well for market share gains.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
BZH’s 4Q25 results and 2026 outlook demonstrate resilience in a tough macro environment, balancing short-term margin compression from incentives with strategic cost savings and product improvements expected to drive sequential recovery. The significant but manageable decline in net orders alongside improved closings reflects a cautious buyer base amid persistent affordability challenges. The company’s differentiated approach to energy-efficient homes and total ownership costs offers a competitive advantage. While initial stock gains post-earnings faded, results mitigate downside risk and establish a framework for margin and volume growth in 2026, subject to broader market conditions.
Applied Materials Delivers Q4 Beat but China Drag Tempers an Improving CY26 Outlook (AMAT)
Applied Materials (AMAT) has rebounded to trade near unchanged today after reporting its Q4 (Oct) results last night. The company beat expectations on the top and bottom line, which has been a typical outcome for AMAT in recent quarters. That said, EPS fell 6% yr/yr while revenue declined 3.5% to $6.8 bln. The EPS drop marks the company's first yr/yr decline since the JulQ '23, while the revenue contraction is its first in seven quarters, reflecting softer demand out of China and slightly higher operating expenses. The midpoint of its Q1 guidance, $2.18 EPS on $6.85 bln in revenue, also implies further yr/yr declines.
- Despite tempered growth, AMAT noted positive leading indicators across leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and HBM, which remain the fastest-growing areas of the semi cap market and align well with its strongest positions.
- Management also highlighted that NAND spending is on track to roughly double in CY25, an area where AMAT has historically held lower share.
- The weakness came from China, which fell to 29% of revenue, well below the 45% peak in Q1 FY24, reflecting expanded export restrictions and softer demand in ICAPS-related markets. It did see a notable uptick in Taiwan, with total revenue from the region increasing 42% yr/yr to about 27% of total revenue.
- Semiconductor Systems revenue declined 8% yr/yr to $4.76 bln, ahead of expectations for roughly a 9% drop. The mix was led by foundry and logic at 65%, followed by DRAM at 29%, though operating margin compressed to 32.1% from 35.2%.
- Management noted improved customer visibility, with some now planning one to two years ahead. Still, they expect a flattish first half of CY26, with the meaningful uplift arriving in 2H26 as leading-edge logic, DRAM, and HBM ramps tied to AI data-center demand begin to accelerate, with AI reaching a "tipping point" that is driving broader investment in computing infrastructure.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
AMAT delivered Q4 results ahead of expectations, though the yr/yr declines in revenue and EPS, driven largely by softness in China, are keeping pressure on sentiment. The in-line Q1 outlook marks a step up from the downside guidance issued last quarter and suggests some sequential reacceleration, even if results are still expected to fall yr/yr. It's at least encouraging that AMAT didn't return with an even weaker update this time. Still, China/ICAPS digestion and margin pressure remain overhangs. Even so, the more constructive CY26 commentary and improved visibility represent a notable shift from last quarter's tone, reinforcing AMAT's longer-term positioning even as geopolitical headwinds weigh on the stock.
StubHub Misses the Beat: First Quarter as a Public Company Struggles to Hit High Notes (STUB)
StubHub (STUB -24%) is stubbing its toe in its first earnings report as a publicly traded company following its September 2025 IPO. For a newly listed name, the first earnings report is critical, since the IPO roadshow typically paints a confident picture to institutions. Expectations were high — but STUB's debut quarter fell short of delivering a clean, confidence-boosting narrative.
Key Metrics & Highlights Revenue:
- $468.1 mln, up 7.9% yr/yr and above expectations. STUB posted a large GAAP loss with no adjusted EPS, making profitability difficult to assess.
- Guidance: Offered no near-term outlook, with FY26 guidance delayed until the Q4 report early next year. We think the lack of guidance is spooking investors a bit.
- GMS: $2.4 bln, up 11% yr/yr; excluding last year's Taylor Swift Eras Tour comp, GMS grew a strong 24% yr/yr.
Headwinds
- Lapping the Eras Tour: Last year's Eras Tour boom created a very difficult comparison, acting as a meaningful drag on reported growth.
- FTC "Junk Fee" Mandate (All-In Pricing): The 2025 rule requires StubHub and peers to display total ticket costs upfront, including service and processing fees. This shift has pressured conversion rates as consumers adjust. STUB estimates a 10% one-time impact on the North American secondary ticketing market. STUB expects yr/yr comparisons will remain pressured through May 2026, as the company cycles a full year of the new pricing requirement.
Future Growth Drivers
- Direct Issuance: STUB sees an addressable market well over $100 bln by enabling teams, artists, venues, and organizers to issue primary tickets directly through StubHub. This model transitions STUB from a pure secondary marketplace to a primary-distribution partner, capturing more value earlier in the ticket cycle.
- Advertising: Still in the early stages, but management believes it can grow into a large, profitable business, leveraging high-intent traffic and event-driven search behavior.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
StubHub's first outing as a public company was a missed opportunity. While the top-line result was solid, the GAAP loss, lack of adjusted EPS, and the decision to withhold guidance undermined confidence at a critical early stage. Some of the pressure—like lapping the Eras Tour and the mandated all-in pricing—was out of StubHub's control, but the overall report still could have been stronger. There is long-term potential in Direct Issuance and advertising, but for now the near-term regulatory drag, conversion reset, and limited visibility make this a name to approach cautiously. Execution over the next several quarters will be key to rebuilding credibility with investors.
Warner Bros. Discovery weights split or sale amid cord-cutting pressures and bidding war (WBD)
According to the Wall Street Journal, Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Comcast (CMCSA), and Netflix (NFLX) are reportedly preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) ahead of the November 20 deadline, drawing significant industry attention as consolidation reshapes the media landscape. PSKY, which recently completed its combination with Skydance and surprised the market with robust Q3 results, highlighted by a 24% revenue surge for Paramount+, remains determined to acquire the entirety of WBD, including cable networks (TNT, TBS, CNN, Discovery), the streaming business (HBO Max), and studio operations.
- PSKY’s $23.50 per share bid was rejected, but its integration strength and DTC momentum still position it as a resilient bidder.
- CMCSA and NFLX are interested only in WBD's streaming and studio assets, a move reflecting ongoing cord-cutting pressures and WBD’s 23% decline in linear network revenue last quarter despite flat streaming growth and 2.3 mln net new subs.
- NFLX could use WBD’s content library and HBO Max to build a formidable competitive moat, unlocking global synergies with its tech stack.
- CMCSA’s hybrid cable/streaming model would be strengthened by absorbing WBD’s streaming assets, helping offset linear TV erosion.
- WBD is weighing a full or partial sale versus splitting into standalone "Warner Bros." (streaming/studios) and "Discovery Global" (cable), with a decision expected in December.
- A sale delivers immediate liquidity and exits legacy risk, while a split could unlock separate valuations over time, though with more operational complexity.
Briefing.com Analysis:
Ultimately, WBD management must persuade shareholders that a split would deliver greater long-term returns than a sale, especially if buyers make compelling all-cash offers. PSKY’s whole-company bid - leveraging post-merger momentum - may appeal if shareholder liquidity and conglomerate synergy are prioritized. However, NFLX or CMCSA’s interest in only streaming/studio assets bolsters the case that legacy cable networks may be best decoupled. Across the industry, intensifying consolidation points to competitive pressure amid fragmenting consumer attention and rising content costs. PSKY is seeking scale; WBD is at a crossroads; NFLX and CMCSA crave premium content and platform extensions; and Disney (DIS) faces similar pressures to maintain dominance through asset aggregation.
Ibotta plunges as delayed CPG spending, weak consumer sentiment takes a toll on Q3 results (IBTA)
Ibotta (IBTA) topped Q3 EPS and revenue expectations, but revenue fell by 15.5% yr/yr to $83.3 mln, representing its steepest revenue decline since going public in April 2024. This decline was attributed to macroeconomic headwinds including weak consumer sentiment and CPG clients delaying spending. The stock is plunging lower following the earnings release.
- The midpoint of IBTA’s Q4 revenue guidance of $80-$85 mln is below expectations, fueling investor disappointment. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 of $9-$12 mln at midpoint represents a yr/yr decline exceeding 62%.
- Key operational metrics showed mixed signals. Quarterly redeemers on the Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) increased 19% yr/yr to 18.2 mln, reflecting demand strength. However, third-party publisher redemptions fell 6% to 62.1 mln, indicating some softness in redemption frequency.
- Strategic initiatives announced include a new partnership with Circana to provide third-party sales lift measurement, allowing clients independent verification of promotional effectiveness.
- Another initiative, LiveLift, is an enhanced solution for CPG brands to optimize campaigns in real time, helping improve targeting and ROI.
- Management emphasized that these initiatives, combined with ongoing transformation of IBTA’s sales organization and product suite, position the company for future growth despite near-term challenges.
- LiveLift pilots have shown promising results with clients already expanding campaign investments after trials. Broader market adoption is expected in 2026, supported by improved AI-driven optimization and sales execution.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
IBTA’s 3Q25 results and guidance reflect clear pain points in revenue and EBITDA caused by consumer and client caution amid economic uncertainty. The robust redeemer growth juxtaposed with falling redemption volume underscores shifts in user behavior and offer dynamics. The company’s strategic pivot to outcomes-based performance marketing and enhanced measurement solutions like LiveLift and Circana partnership reflect forward-looking efforts to drive incremental sales with measurable ROI. While Q4 guidance tempers near-term optimism, management’s roadmap for broader adoption of AI-enabled campaign optimization solutions and sales execution improvements provide a potential foundation for recovery and growth in 2026. However, caution is warranted given the steep revenue contraction and sizable adjusted EBITDA decline anticipated this quarter.
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